The Denver Broncos will be trying to break a long slide against their AFC West rivals when they visit Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. The Chiefs (10-1) have beaten Denver (4-7) in 10 consecutive matchups, tied for the NFL's longest active regular-season win streak against a divisional opponent. The Broncos have their full complement of quarterbacks for this one after starting converted receiver Kendall Hinton in a 31-3 loss to the Saints last week. The Chiefs are trying to stay in the hunt for the AFC's top seed as they seek to repeat as Super Bowl champions. 

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET. The latest Broncos vs. Chiefs odds from William Hill Sportsbook lists Kansas City as a 13-point favorite, while the over-under for total points scored is 51. Before locking in your Chiefs vs. Broncos picks or NFL predictions, check out what SportsLine's resident Chiefs expert, Larry Hartstein, has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. He nailed 60 percent of his NFL against-the-spread picks last year, and he's been uncanny when it comes to the Chiefs.

Over his last 14 spread picks for or against Kansas City, Hartstein has accumulated an impressive 12-2 record. That includes last week, when he faded the Chiefs at Tampa Bay. The result: The Buccaneers covered 3.5 points in a 27-24 loss, and anyone who followed Hartstein cashed in. 

Now, Hartstein has analyzed Broncos vs. Chiefs and released another confident against-the-spread pick. Go here to see it. Here are the NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Broncos:

  • Broncos vs. Chiefs spread: Kansas City -13
  • Broncos vs. Chiefs over-under: 51
  • Broncos vs. Chiefs money line: Denver +650, Chiefs -1000
  • Broncos: QB Drew Lock has thrown for at least 248 yards in five straight starts
  • Chiefs: TE Travis Kelce has at least eight receptions in four straight games

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City is 9-1 against the spread while winning 10 straight games against Denver. Mahomes has thrown for an NFL-best 3,497 yards and has 30 touchdown passes against two interceptions. Kansas City's offense averages 426 yards per game, and players like receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce make the unit especially dangerous. 

The Chiefs are 9-2-1 against the spread in their last 12 games at Arrowhead, and Hill's explosiveness was on full display last week against the Bucs. The speedy wideout had 269 yards and three scores to give him 1,021 yards and a league-high 13 TDs this season. Kelce is tied for fifth in the league with 74 catches, and running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 926 total yards. Defensively, the Chiefs should have little trouble slowing a Broncos offense that puts up 19 points (31st in NFL) and 325 yards (27th) per game.

Why the Broncos can cover

The road team is 5-1 against the spread in the last six meetings between these two teams, and Denver's defense won't be intimidated by Patrick Mahomes. The Broncos held Mahomes to 200 passing yards and the Chiefs had just 286 total but got scores from the defense and special teams in their 43-16 victory in Week 7. Safety Justin Simmons is a presence in the secondary, nabbing four interceptions and recovering a fumble, and Bradley Chubb harasses quarterbacks and has recorded 7.5 sacks. 

Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last seven Week 13 games, and the unit is stout at linebacker with Chubb, Alexander Johnson (92 tackles) and Malik Reed (6.5 sacks). The Broncos will have starting QB Drew Lock back, but they could lean on the running backs. Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay have combined for 968 yards, and Gordon has scored six TDs. When Lock throws, he has solid targets in Noah Fant (40 catches), Jerry Jeudy (37) and Tim Patrick (36).

How to make Chiefs vs. Broncos picks

Hartstein has analyzed this matchup and while he's leaning over the total, he has also discovered a crucial x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. He's only sharing it here. 

Who wins Broncos vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football? And what critical factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Broncos spread you should jump on, all from the NFL expert who's 12-2 on picks involving Kansas City, and find out.