It'll be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Kansas City Chiefs who'll duke it out with a Lombardi Trophy on the line. With the dust now settled on the AFC and NFC championships, we know Patrick Mahomes and company will look to become the first team to win back-to-back Super Bowls since the 2003-04 Patriots. The man trying to stop him from mounting that feat is the quarterback who helped bring New England those consecutive titles in Tom Brady, who is now finding similar success as a member of the Bucs.
With the stakes so high, this game will be dissected more than any other this season. As we begin peeling back different aspects of this head-to-head, we'll start to get a clearer picture as to who may have the edge. From a betting perspective, there's no better place to start building that foundation than with CBS Sports research analyst Stephen Oh's projections. Through his simulations of Super Bowl LV, we're getting a solid indication as to how this game may go.
On the initial sim, Oh has the Chiefs winning 54.4% of the time. However, there is a slight lean on taking the three-points with the Buccaneers against the spread. Tampa Bay's defense has been particularly strong throughout the postseason -- notching six turnovers over their last two games against Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers -- and is able to do enough to hold the Chiefs under 30 points in sims. As a favorite, Kansas City is 7-9 ATS this season while the Bucs are 4-1 ATS as an underdog. Over their last four games, Tampa Bay is 3-1 ATS with the Chiefs sit at 1-3 ATS.
As it relates to the total -- the NFL odds at William Hill Sportsbook currently have it at 56.5 -- the Under has hit in two of the three games combined between these two teams this season when there are more than eight days off.
When we shift our focus from the overall game and start to zero in on some player props, Oh's projections do have Patrick Mahomes outdueling Tom Brady in every key stat. Mahomes' completion percentage, passing yards, and TD-INT ratio all best Brady. That said, Mahomes is projected to fall under the 300 passing yard mark with a projected 293 yards through the air, 26 completions, and 2.2 touchdowns. As for Brady, he is expected to struggle against the K.C. pass rush that gave Josh Allen fits in the AFC title game. Oh's simulations project that Brady will barely complete 60% of his passes with a 75% chance of him throwing at least one interception. He's also projected to complete 23.2 passes for 274 yards and two scores.
Elsewhere, Tyreek Hill could possess some strong value as the first touchdown scorer. The star receiver dominated in his matchup with the Buccaneers secondary earlier in the regular season and is +600 to score the first touchdown in Oh's sims (Hill was +700 at William Hill Sportsbook to score first against Buffalo). Unless that line moves significantly, Hill has good value here. Travis Kelce is also pegged to have a big game as he's projected for 12 targets and nearly nine receptions for over 100 yards receiving. He also scores a touchdown in 70% of simulations, making him a solid pick for an anytime touchdown wager.
On the other side, Chris Godwin is looking at a similar type of outing that he's enjoyed over the last six contests. Oh's projections have him with five catches for 66 yards. However, he only owns a 35% chance to score a touchdown.
Of course, this is just the start of our digging into what is primed to be one of the better Super Bowl matchups that we've had in recent memory. Will these players live up to or outshine their projections? We'll find out on Feb. 7 beginning at 6:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
