Revenge is on the mind of the Houston Texans, who look to even the season series after a tough Week 2 loss in Nashville to the Tennessee Titans and backup Blaine Gabbert. Much has changed since that early season loss, as Houston is riding a seven-game winning streak and leads the Titans and Colts by two games in the AFC South. The Titans are 5-5, having lost to sub-.500 teams like the 4-7 Bills and 5-6 Dolphins, but beating the 8-3 Patriots and 6-5 Cowboys. Sportsbooks list Houston as a four-point home favorite. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, has risen steadily and is 42.5 in the latest Texans vs. Titans odds. Before you make any Texans vs. Titans picks and predictions, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.
The advanced computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 12 on a blistering 12-0 run. For the season, it is now 26-9 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 74-43. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 105-53 this season, again ranking in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Anybody who has been following it is way, way up.
Now the model has dialed in on Titans vs. Texans. We can tell you it's leaning over, but it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.
The model has factored in that the Texans have taken control of the AFC South with their defense -- notably Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt, who have combined for 16.5 of the team's 28 sacks. Both made keys sacks last week against the Redskins to secure a 23-21 victory. Over their past six games, the Texans have allowed only 97 points, an average of just 16 per game.
Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson has eight passing touchdowns in his last three games, including a five-score masterpiece against the Dolphins in which he completed 80 percent of his passes and posted a nearly perfect QB rating of 156.0. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has scored in five straight games.
But just because Watson is hot and the Texans' defense is one of the league's most dominant doesn't mean the Titans can't cover 3.5 points, especially with Marcus Mariota under center and a rock solid defense.
Mariota suffered a stinger last week against the Colts, but was removed from the injury report this week and will start on Monday Night Football. He's fresh off throwing a total of four touchdowns and no interceptions in back-to-back victories against the Cowboys and Patriots.
Despite allowing 38 to the Colts last week, the Titans still have the second-stiffest scoring defense in the league at 18.9 points. And the Titans beat the Texans by three in the team's first meeting with a backup quarterback. Watson was sacked four times, picked off once, and fumbled twice, recovering both. Tennessee scored on a fake punt on their first possession.
Who wins Titans vs. Texans? And which side covers in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over Monday night, all from the incredible computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors.
