"Throw out the records when these rivals play!" How many times have we heard breathless announcers and one-game-at-a-time coaches utter this cliche?
The reality is the better team usually wins. Even that statement, though, needs to be qualified. Rivalries can create upsets in emotional games, especially in the season finale when teams are inspired or beaten down and healthy or banged up. The unpredictability depends on the rivalry.
How often does the better team win end-of-season rivalry games? That's what I attempted to explore in what by no means is a scientific study. The premise was this: Document how often the team with the better record entering its end-of-the-season rivalry game wins that contest.
The games I picked are rivalries that usually have been played on the final week. Not all of these games always occurred at the end of the season, but they have for the most part. I only counted a rivalry's results for as far back as the game has been annually played.
Naturally, the quality of the teams in the rivalry impacts how often the team with the better record wins. Some records in rivalry games are better thrown out than others.
T11. Alabama vs. Auburn
Length of rivalry: Since 1948
Team with the better record wins: 82 percent
Records this year: Alabama 11-0, Auburn 8-3
Bottom line: On 37 occasions, Alabama and Auburn entered the Iron Bowl separated by three or more wins, as they are this season. The team with the better record in those situations has won 34 times (92 percent). The Iron Bowl is one of the safest rivalry picks to go with the better record.
T11. Virginia Tech vs. Virginia
Length of rivalry: Since 1970
Team with better record wins: 82 percent
Records this year: Virginia Tech 8-3, Virginia 2-9
Bottom line: This rivalry is simple: When Virginia Tech is up, Virginia is down, and vice versa. This year's six-win gap between them is the largest since the series started in 1895. (They started playing annually in 1970.) The odds are long for Virginia, which has lost 12 straight to Virginia Tech. Then again, 2016 has witnessed the Chicago Cubs win the World Series and Donald Trump get elected president.
10. Army vs. Navy
Length of rivalry: Since 1930
Team with the better record wins: 73 percent
Records this year: Navy 8-2, Army 6-5
Bottom line: This has been a one-sided series of late with Navy winning 14 in a row. That has skewed the numbers somewhat for what used to be a more competitive series. Army was down for a long time until a resurgent 2016 season. Is this the year for an Army upset on Dec. 10 to end the streak? Navy could have a New Year's Six bowl game on the line.
9. Florida vs. Florida State
Length of rivalry: Since 1958
Team with the better record wins: 72 percent
Records this year: Florida 8-2, Florida State 8-3
Bottom line: This rivalry got spoiled by the Bobby Bowden-Steve Spurrier era with two really good teams almost every year. Historically, there's less history for both programs. While this isn't an elite game in 2016, it's better than most pre-Bowden and pre-Spurrier years. Note: Florida has one less game because it canceled a nonconference game to reschedule LSU.
8. Georgia vs. Georgia Tech
Length of rivalry: Since 1925
Team with the better record wins: 70 percent
Records this year: Georgia 7-4, Georgia Tech 7-4
Bottom line: This is the late-season rivalry most likely to have both teams enter their game with the same record. It's happened in 14 percent of the Georgia-Georgia Tech games since 1925. Voila! The Yellow Jackets and Bulldogs are both 7-4 in 2016 in a coin-flip game.
T5. Ohio State vs. Michigan
Length of rivalry: Since 1918
Team with better record wins: 69 percent
Records this year: Ohio State 10-1, Michigan 10-1
Bottom line: These are two of the winningest programs of all-time, so they're going to have the ability for more "upset" wins. Unlike Alabama and Auburn, Ohio State and Michigan tend to experience fewer really low dips in their programs. That creates more opportunities for competitive games and the team with the worse record winning.
T5. Oregon vs. Oregon State
Length of rivalry: Since 1945
Team with better record wins: 69 percent
Records this year: Oregon 4-7, Oregon State 3-8
Bottom line: If you take out the Ducks' success (until recently) for most of the past decade, there used to be far more "upsets" in the Civil War. These are two programs going nowhere in 2016. It will be interesting to see if the series reverts back to greater fluctuation regardless of records.
T5. Washington vs. Washington State
Length of rivalry: Since 1945
Team with better record wins: 69 percent
Records this year: Washington 10-1, Washington State 8-3
Bottom line: As the Civil War regresses to its past, the Apple Cup is rising to almost unprecedented heights. This years marks only the sixth time the game will feature two ranked teams, and the first since 2001. Just eight years ago, Washington and Washington State entered the Apple Cup with a combined 1-20 record. Times are changing in the Pacific Northwest.
T3. Ole Miss vs. Mississippi State
Length of rivalry: Since 1944
Team with better record wins: 67 percent
Records this year: Ole Miss 5-6, Mississippi State 4-7
Bottom line: Since Ole Miss and Mississippi State are usually near the bottom of the SEC, it makes sense there are more "upsets" than other rivalries. This game is their season. Plus, what's an upset between 5-6 and 4-7 teams? Since Dan Mullen came to Mississippi State in 2009, the team with the better record is 2-4 in the Egg Bowl. (One year they had the same record.)
T3. Arizona vs. Arizona State
Length of rivalry: Since 1946
Team with better record wins: 67 percent
Records this year: Arizona State 5-6, Arizona 2-9
Bottom line: This is a rare rivalry without an extensive winning streak in recent years. Neither team has won more than three straight series games since Arizona's five-game winning streak from 1982-86. There's only been one three-game winning streak since 1995.
2. Clemson vs. South Carolina
Length of rivalry: Since 1909
Team with better record wins: 66 percent
Records this year: Clemson 10-1, South Carolina 6-5
Bottom line: The 66 percent figure may be slightly skewed because they've played every year for so long and used to play their Big Thursday game in mid-October. The series moved to November in 1960. Clemson-South Carolina is one of the most underrated rivalries given how unpredictable the games can be and the longtime bitterness between the schools and fan bases. Only 12 years ago, these teams had an ugly fight on the field.
1. Notre Dame vs. USC
Length of rivalry: Since 1946
Team with better record wins: 63 percent
Records this year: USC 8-3, Notre Dame 4-7
Bottom line: It's important to note that since the early 1960s, Notre Dame and USC have annually rotated when their game is played (mid-October when it's at Notre Dame, late November when it's at USC). How bad is Notre Dame in 2016? It's a 17-point underdog in a rivalry game where, historically, records matter the least.
