Big Ten takes, picks: Penn State replacing offensive coordinator won't cure its Ohio State-Michigan problem

USATSI

The fans in Beaver Stadium demanded a head on a pike. On Sunday, they received one.

Penn State fired offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich after another disappointing performance from the Penn State offense against one of the two teams the program hasn't been able to conquer in recent years. After looking hapless and ineffective in a loss against Ohio State a few weeks ago, the group didn't look much better at home against the Wolverines. Somebody had to go.

This puts James Franklin in the all-too-familiar position of looking for a new offensive coordinator. Franklin brought John Donovan with him from Vanderbilt when he arrived in 2014. Now in his 10th season, Franklin is on the hunt for his sixth offensive coordinator in Happy Valley. However, that number deserves more context.

Penn State's next offensive coordinator will be its sixth under James Franklin.
— Tom Fornelli (@TomFornelli) November 12, 2023

I tweeted this factoid on Sunday after the Yurcich move was announced. It produced a slew of responses implying that Franklin was the common denominator through all of those play-callers. Which, well, duh, that's typically how it works. The problem is this line of thinking implies that Franklin keeps firing guys because it isn't working out, and that's not the case.

Joe Moorhead left after two very successful seasons to become coach at Mississippi State. He was replaced by Ricky Rahne, a member of Franklin's Penn State staff from the jump. He also left after two seasons for a head coaching job at Old Dominion. While John Donovan's first two years were an inarguable failure, Franklin replaced him with two consecutive successful offensive coordinators. After Rahne left, Penn State and Franklin wanted to hire Yurcich but lost out to Tom Herman and the Texas Longhorns. Then Herman was fired, and Yurcich was back on the market. Franklin and Penn State moved on from Kirk Ciarrocca -- which wasn't a difficult decision after a tough, strange 2020 -- after one season to get the guy they wanted in the first place.

Yurcich's tenure at Penn State was the longest of any Franklin offensive coordinator since taking the job. As you can see in the table below, statistically, the drop off from Rahne's tenure to Yurcich's wasn't dramatic.

PSU OC	Points per Game	Yards per Game	Yards per Play	Points per Poss.*	Success Rate*	EPA per Play*	Explosive Play Rate*
John Donovan (2014-15)	21.8	342.0	5.0	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Joe Moorhead (2016-17)	39.3	445.9	6.5	2.83	45.6%	0.16	16.2%
Ricky Rahne (2018-19)	34.8	417.5	6.1	2.55	44.6%	0.13	13.9%
Kirk Ciarrocca (2020)	29.8	430.3	5.5	2.17	43.8%	0.11	11.0%
Mike Yurcich (2021-23)	32.4	397.7	5.6	2.43	42.6%	0.18	11.2%

*unfortunately I don't have access to this data prior to the 2016 season

What was dramatic? Penn State went 0-6 against Ohio State and Michigan under Yurcich, which begs a familiar question: Does Penn State have an offensive play-calling problem or a Michigan and Ohio State problem?

vs. OSU & Michigan	Points per Game	Yards per Game	Yards per Play	Points per Poss.	Success Rate	EPA per Play	Explosive Play Rate
John Donovan	15.75	244.0	3.8	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Joe Moorhead	28.5	314.0	5.2	2.04	37.3%	0.03	15.8%
Ricky Rahne	19.5	297.0	4.9	1.44	35.6%	-0.16	12.4%
Kirk Ciarrocca	26.0	371.0	5.5	2.26	40.4%	0.10	12.5%
Mike Yurcich	19.3	325.7	4.6	1.56	39.0%	-0.10	8.7%

It certainly feels like Penn State consistently placing a distant third behind its primary rivals in the Big Ten is the bigger problem. I don't know who Penn State can hire that will be enough to solve the problem on his own. Even though Moorhead's numbers against Ohio State and Michigan were strong, it's important to remember the Michigan team Moorhead was facing was not at the level of the Wolverines program Yurcich failed to conquer. Michigan went 18-8 during Moorhead's tenure at Penn State, while it's 35-3 during Yurcich's time.

The good news is Penn State is Penn State. It has the financial means to lure an attractive, qualified candidate. The bad news is a new offensive coordinator, no matter who it is, won't make Ohio State and Michigan worse football teams.

Does Northwestern have its coach?

The First Northwestern Head Coach with 5+ wins in his first season in 120 years. pic.twitter.com/u04MVpZEha
— Northwestern Football (@NUFBFamily) November 11, 2023

David Braun stepped into an impossible situation. He became the head coach of a Northwestern program amid mutiny, practically by default. Northwestern never wanted to fire Pat Fitzgerald before it had to, and when looking for an interim coach under whom to punt the 2023 season, it turned to Braun because he was new. He wasn't there for any of the alleged hazing that led to Fitzgerald's downfall, having just arrived from North Dakota State to be the new defensive coordinator.

Next thing you know, Braun is in charge of a locker room full of players and coaches upset about Fitzgerald being fired. A locker room that, based on preseason win totals, is filled with a group expected to win three or four games and finish last in the Big Ten West.

Fast forward to today, and Northwestern is 5-5. It's won more games overall and in the Big Ten (three) this season under Braun than the last two seasons under Fitzgerald (four total, two conference). In short, Braun has done a phenomenal job rallying an angry bunch into a team capable of winning football games. The Wildcats only need a win over 3-7 Purdue or 5-5 Illinois to go bowling.

Naturally, people are wondering if Braun should have the interim tag removed from his title. It's one of those decisions that's tough for every school when the interim coach exceeds expectations because there are so many factors in play of which you can't be sure. The biggest one being what happens when the season ends and its emotion all fades away? It's important to remember, in this case, that a lot of the coaches who are still on staff weren't happy with Fitzgerald's dismissal. Will they all stick around, or will they look for work elsewhere?

Also, while I'm not the best person to ask about coaching rumors; I have heard from multiple sources that Northwestern has been kicking the tires on possible candidates all year and still is. While Braun has dramatically increased his chances of keeping the job and could improve them more with a bowl game, Northwestern will let the process play out.

A reason for hope in Bloomington

There will be no happy ending for the Indiana Hoosiers in 2023. After beating Wisconsin 20-14 to keep their bowl hopes alive, Hoosiers fans were able to look at Indiana's winnable final three games of the season against Illinois, Michigan State and Purdue and convince themselves there was a chance at a bowl game this year. Those hopes, slim as they were, went away following a 48-45 heartbreaker against the Illini.

As the Hoosiers have once again struggled in the Big Ten this year, I've heard from many Indiana fans who lament the large buyout attached to Tom Allen's contract. It will likely keep the team from making a coaching change this winter. While I empathize with those fans and their wishes, I have a question I'd like to ask them ...

What if Indiana has already made the coaching change it needed?

Following Indiana's 44-17 loss at Maryland on Sept. 30, Allen fired offensive coordinator Walt Bell. Indiana is only 1-4 in five games since, but it's a much more competitive team. That's because the offense has taken a step forward.

2023 Indiana	Points per Poss.	Success Rate	EPA per Play	Pass Expl. Rate	Rush Expl. Rate	Red Zone Drive %*	Points per RZ Poss.	Negative Play Rate
w/ Walt Bell	1.15	34.2%	-0.18	14.8%	3.1%	21.28%	3.60	35.71%
w/ Rod Carey	1.90	42.1%	-0.02	9.8%	6.7%	22.41%	4.15	34.06%

*rate of offensive possessions to reach the red zone

The improvement in those numbers is evident, but what makes them even more impressive is that two of new offensive coordinator Rod Carey's games have been against Michigan and Penn State. Indiana scored first against Michigan and never had a prayer from there, but had a legitimate shot to pull off an upset over Penn State at Beaver Stadium. They took down the Badgers and were a play or two away from beating Illinois.

I'm not going to say Indiana fans should prepare for a huge 2024 or anything, but there seems to be room for optimism that next season could provide a few more enjoyable Saturdays.

Gut reads of the week

Every week I pick every Big Ten game against the spread based on nothing but my gut reaction to the number. No digging into numbers, just vibes, baby. I even track my record to embarrass myself publicly. Odds via SportsLine consensus.

Michigan at Maryland: This is a tough spot for Michigan. First of all, there's everything going on off the field with Jim Harbaugh's suspension and the possibility he won't be able to coach this game. No matter what you think of the situation, you can't argue the Wolverines haven't done a tremendous job using it as a rallying point. Still, the Wolverines are coming off an emotional win at Penn State last week and have Ohio State looming next week. They certainly wouldn't be the first team to get caught slipping in a sandwich spot. Not enough to suffer a loss, but enough to let Maryland hang around a little longer than it should. Pick: Maryland +19