There are no sure things when it comes to gambling, but if we look at the history of how teams have performed, we can see trends emerge. I've gone through college football data since the beginning of the 2008 season in search of these trends and I've found plenty of them.

Today I share with you the things I've discovered in the Big Ten. Now, merely following these trends will not assure you riches beyond your wildest dreams, but they will arm you with useful information to help you make more informed decisions when putting your money on the line.

All records listed below are against the spread (ATS)


FavoriteUnderdogHomeAwayNeutral

All games

447-451-18

328-325-17

391-443-16

321-276-16 63-57-3

Big Ten play

259-247-15

247-259-15

229-267-14

267-229-14 N/A

Nonconference play

188-204-3

81-66-2

162-176-2

54-47-2 53-47-1

Big Ten vs. Everyone

ACCBig 12Pac-12SECIndependents & G5FCS

23-18-3

17-19

33-27-1

17-24

130-137-1

37-34

Big Ten team-by-team trends

Big Ten team-by-team trends
1
Ohio St.
74-56-2 (.569) -- Ohio State's overall record ATS is skewed by three seasons. In 2009, 2010 and 2014 the Buckeyes went 30-10-1 ATS. Some quick math informs you that they're 44-46-1 in the other seven seasons since 2008. Even so, there's still a clear trend when it comes to betting the Buckeyes: take them on the road. Whether in a true road game or at a neutral site, Ohio State is 39-21-1 ATS since 2008, and it's just as successful against nonconference foes as Big Ten opponents.
2
Wisconsin
72-60-2 (.545) -- Avoid Wisconsin in neutral site games. They're 6-11 ATS on such occasions. Instead, bet the Badgers in Big Ten games. Over the last 10 seasons, the Badgers have gone 47-33-2 ATS in conference games that are played on a Big Ten campus. Also, you might be surprised to learn that the Over is profitable in Wisconsin's Big Ten games, going 52-34-1 since 2008. It's even better in home conference games, going 29-15-1.
3
Northwestern
67-58-1 (.536) -- There are two times you want to bet on Northwestern: when it's an underdog and when it's on the road. As a dog, the Wildcats are 37-26 ATS since 2008. Outside of Evanston, the Cats are 38-23 ATS. When you combine those two powers to make Northwestern a road dog? Well, it's 23-9 ATS.
4
Penn St.
65-58-5 (.528) -- When it comes to Penn State, location doesn't mean much of anything. It performs just as well ATS at home as it does on the road or at a neutral site. The situation in which the Nittany Lions genuinely shine is when they're favored in a Big Ten game. They're 32-22-2 ATS when favored against conference opponents since 2008. The bigger the spread, the better as they're 11-6 when favored by 14 points or more.
5
Michigan St.
67-61-3 (.523) -- My initial impression with Michigan State was that it was a strong Under team. It is, but only in a specific situation. When Michigan State is playing at home, the Under is 43-28. When the Spartans are on the road, the Under is 24-34-1. So, it seems pretty clear: bet the Under in Michigan State home games, and the over in road games.
6
Minnesota
63-58-5 (.521) -- Row your boat to your bookie and bet Minnesota whenever it's an underdog. The Gophers are 40-28-5 ATS as a dog since 2008. They've also proven to be a safe bet in road games, going 27-18-5 ATS in that span.
7
Iowa
64-61-3 (.512) -- Fade Iowa when it's favored at home. Since 2008, the Hawkeyes are 23-33-1 ATS as home favorites, including a mark of 11-18-1 in Big Ten play. If you're an Iowa fan who can't bring themselves to bet against your team, don't worry, you can make money elsewhere. The Under is 32-24-1 in Iowa road games over the last 10 seasons.
8
Rutgers
24-25 (.490) -- Rutgers has only been in the Big Ten since 2014, and unfortunately, that sample size isn't large enough to produce a noteworthy trend. Really, the only things of interest are that Rutgers is 4-1 ATS as an underdog in nonconference games, and 8-2 ATS when they're receiving fewer than 7.5 points on the spread line.
9
Purdue
57-61-4 (.483) -- You want to fade Purdue when it's at home in a Big Ten game. Since the beginning of the 2008 season, the Boilermakers have gone 15-25-1 ATS in that scenario, and that includes a 3-2 record last year when they caught everyone off guard. Now, if you're looking to bet on the Boilers, you'll want to do so when they're road dogs in conference play, as they're 21-13-2 ATS.
10
Nebraska
42-45-4 (.483) -- This is Nebraska's record since it joined the Big Ten in 2011. This gives us a smaller sample size to work with, but in the seven years Nebraska has been in the Big Ten, it's been a much better bet on the road than at home. The Huskers are 20-13-1 ATS on the road and 19-28-3 ATS in Lincoln.
11
Indiana
52-64-4 (.448) -- It used to be so easy with Indiana. They were the best Over team in the country. From 2008 through 2015, the Over had gone 61-30-3 in Hoosiers games, proving extremely profitable. Unfortunately, the last two years have dealt a blow to that dominance, as the Over is only 10-15 since 2016. So where do we turn to now? The truth is there isn't anything worth mentioning, but the Hoosiers are 8-4 on the road in nonconference games over the last 10 years. Hooray?
12
Maryland
22-28 (.440) -- Like Rutgers, Maryland has only been in the Big Ten since 2014, so we don't have a lot to work with here. Still, it's hard not to notice that the Terps are only 6-10 ATS at home in Big Ten games since joining the conference.
13
Michigan
54-71-2 (.432) -- This is a perfect example of what happens when a team has a huge, loyal fanbase that continues to support it through a decade that's been rougher than usual. They do horribly against the spread. Unfortunately for bettors, no real trend emerges to fade for profitably. Things have been a steady decline on a yearly basis, meaning the juice is going to kill you if you try to fade. Well, that is until we look at totals. The Over has gone 48-34 in Michigan's Big Ten games since 2008, including a record of 26-15 when Michigan is hosting a Big Ten foe.
14
Illinois
52-70 (.426) -- Illinois' record ATS is clearly poor overall, but it's really taken a downturn since 2012. Over the last six seasons, the Illini are 29-44 ATS. That includes a mark of 10-19 ATS on the road since 2012. So if you see the Illini are on the road, you want to bet against them. Also, if you want to go for a big payday, Illinois is 10-14 straight up when it's favored against a Big Ten opponent. So if you'd bet the moneyline on every Illinois opponent in those 24 games, you'd have a lot of extra cash at your disposal right now.