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More than half of the Dolphins targets in 2017 went to players who are no longer with the team. A large share of those went to Jarvis Landry, who is now a Cleveland Brown, however their top two tight ends from last year are also gone. Adam Gase is rebuilding this offense with a combination of veterans and rookies, which should create a lot of Fantasy excitement. But the expectations sure aren't working out that way.
At wide receiver the Dolphins added Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola to replace Landry. They have DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills coming back. It's not hard to envision Wilson and Amendola replacing Landry's production, but that's not going to have a lot of use in Fantasy since they're chopping it up. There is a huge opportunity for Parker or Stills to take the reins as the No. 1 receiver as well. Parker still has the most upside, but he'll have to stay healthy first.
At tight end the Dolphins drafted a pair of highly regarded options, with Mike Gesicki being the likely starter. Rookie tight ends are bad enough, and rookies in offenses where the tight ends get less than 100 targets per year are especially brutal. Expect Gesicki to be a streamable option, but not someone you want to draft and keep on your roster all year.
Of course all of this is dependent on the health of Ryan Tannehill. Despite Tannehill's injury history the Dolphins have made no effort to shore up the position. He had shown some progress in Gase's system before this most recent injury but he'll need a lot more than that to be Fantasy relevant.
*Rankings expressed below are in terms of expected Fantasy points. This is a part of our actual Fantasy Football rankings but not a direct correlation to my rankings. Things like injury risk, upside, etc. factor into rankings but they're not being talked about here. This is simply an expectation as the team is currently constructed.
PLAYER | EXPECTED FP | POS. RANK | EXPECTED PPR FP | POS. RANK |
176.9 | #15 | 210.9 | #14 | |
DeVante Parker | 136.7 | #23 | 210.7 | #24 |
Kenny Stills | 132.2 | #29 | 197 | #32 |
Breaking down the touches
Adam Gase has run one of the slowest offenses in the league over the past two seasons, failing to register 1,000 offensive plays in either. So it's a good thing there are targets available, because there may not be enough plays to support several viable Fantasy options in the passing game.
It will be interesting to see if this offense remains as heavily reliant on receivers as it has. Over the last three seasons more than 60 percent of the targets have gone to receivers. That's meant little action for tight ends and running backs in the passing game. We have seen Gase involve both groups more before he arrived in Miami, and it's a trend that could easily reverse with Landry gone.
Dolphins touches | ||||||||
Player | RuSHARE | RuATT | ReSHARE | TGT | REC | TD | ||
Kenyan Drake | 60% | 247 | 9% | 49 | 34 | 7 | ||
Frank Gore | 25% | 103 | 8% | 43 | 27 | 4 | ||
Kenny Stills | 0% | 0 | 23% | 124 | 64 | 7 | ||
DeVante Parker | 0% | 0 | 22% | 119 | 74 | 6 | ||
Albert Wilson | 0% | 0 | 12% | 65 | 41 | 3 | ||
Danny Amendola | 0% | 0 | 12% | 65 | 45 | 2 | ||
Mike Gesicki | 0% | 0 | 10% | 54 | 32 | 4 |
Of note:
- The Dolphins brought in Gore in free agency and drafted Kalen Ballage, but for now Kenyan Drake still appears to be the unquestioned starter. Whether he's the workhorse that he was in the second half is another question entirely.
- With the injury history of Parker and Amendola a couple of these receivers could get more appealing in a hurry. But when all four are healthy you have to expect Tannehill to spread the ball around.
- I'll be listening to reports on Gesicki early and often. Rookie tight ends have been better lately and Tannehill could lean on him if he proves ready.
The Leftovers
Ballage is a perfect fit for the Dolphins because they have Gore. Don't be surprised if Ballage contributes very little in the first half of the season, maybe all of his rookie year. He's still a prospect who does have upside but also there is a lot of polishing left to be done. If the Dolphins coach him up his speed could be a nice addition to the offense late in the season.
Jakeem Grant and Leonte Caroo are a pair of receivers that could be fighting for roster spots due to all the new receivers. Grant has flashed the few times he's been given an opportunity and could still be worth a deep stash in Dynasty.