The offseason started with a lot of Lamar Jackson-centric drama, but the Ravens retooled on the fly while re-signing Jackson. Is it enough to get him back to an MVP level? A lot is riding on new offensive coordinator Todd Monken and the new receivers signed to play with Jackson, but we do know one thing: When he's been healthy and had weapons, Jackson is about as good as any quarterback in the league, especially for Fantasy.
Record: 10-7 (8)
PPG: 20.6 (19)
YPG: 338.8 (16)
Pass YPG: 178.8 (28)
Rush YPG: 160.0 (2)
PAPG: 28.7 (28)
RAPG: 30.9 (7)
2022 Fantasy finishes
Number to know: 34.3
Lamar Jackson averaged 34.3 Fantasy points per game in the first four games of the season, before Rashod Bateman suffered an injury that effectively ended his season -- he left Week 4, came back for Week 5, and barely played in Week 6 and beyond. That left Jackson with a severely limited receiving corps, and things only got worse when Mark Andrews got hurt in Week 8. I have questions about whether Bateman will ever be a difference maker at the NFL level, and I think it's unlikely Odell Beckham can be a big-time contributor again as well. However, between those two, a healthy Andrews, and first-rounder Zay Flowers from Boston College, the Ravens have more contingency plans than they've ever had with Jackson at QB. The expectation is that Monken's offense will tilt more toward the pass than the run-first-second-and-third offense Roman ran with Jackson, and a more talented group of pass-catchers should benefit Jackson quite a bit. He has as much upside as any QB in Fantasy.
166 RB carries, 40 RB targets, 97 WR targets, 23 TE targets
Rankings and projections
Chris Towers' projections
|QB||Lamar Jackson||PA: 489, YD: 3572, TD: 25, INT: 9; RUSH -- ATT: 150, YD: 897, TD: 6|
|RB||J.K. Dobbins||CAR: 249, YD: 1196, TD: 11; TAR: 29, REC: 24, YD: 188, TD: 1|
|RB||Gus Edwards||CAR: 100, YD: 439, TD: 4; TAR: 10, REC: 8, YD: 59, TD: 0|
|WR||Rashod Bateman||TAR: 93, REC: 54, YD: 728, TD: 5|
|WR||Odell Beckham||TAR: 88, REC: 56, YD: 694, TD: 4|
|WR||Zay Flowers||TAR: 69, REC: 45, YD: 565, TD: 3|
|TE||Mark Andrews||TAR: 122, REC: 81, YD: 969, TD: 7|
How does the offense change?
Between the addition of Flowers and Beckham and the presence of new offensive coordinator Monken, we're definitely expecting to see some changes to the Ravens offense this season. Jackson still has top-tier QB upside for Fantasy with a rebuilt receiving corps, but whether Monken is willing to lean on one RB consistently will determine how excited we should be about Dobbins, especially.
One sleeper, one breakout and one bust
I'm not at all sure how the receiving hierarchy is going to shake out behind Andrews, but Flowers' playmaking chops could make him a big part of this offense. The Ravens have mostly relied on two-WR sets, with the outside receivers stretching the field vertically, and Flowers has that in his skill set. However, if Monken incorporates more short and intermediate-area routes into the offense, that's really where Flowers could make an impact, because Flowers got 48% of his yards after the catch last season. Bateman and Beckham are big question marks, both because of their skills and their health, and there could be an opportunity for Flowers to emerge as the go-to Andrews alternative relatively quickly.
In Greg Roman's four seasons as the Ravens offensive coordinator, they've been the most run-heavy team in football, but it hasn't actually been a great offense for running backs in Fantasy. That's at least in part because, in 66 games, a running back only had 15 or more carries 22 times. Roman wanted to cycle his running backs out to keep them fresh, and that's one thing we're hoping changes in the new offense. Dobbins has been remarkably productive in this offense, averaging 5.9 yards per carry over parts of two seasons – he has 1,325 yards on just 226 carries. If he gets to 250-plus carries and maintains even some of that efficiency, he's going to be a must-start running back; if they involve him in the passing game and feature him near the goal line, there's low-end RB1 upside here, too.
I hope this is read with the lack of conviction I intend, because I really don't think Andrews is going to bust. He's my No. 2 tight end, with a pretty clear gap to No. 3. However, he was pretty disappointing last season, especially after a hot start, and the injury doesn't explain it all away – his zero-catch, two-target showing in Week 6 was one of the biggest disappointments in Fantasy, and it came before his knee injury. I still think Andrews is a great bet to bounce back, but he has more competition for targets than ever before, and we don't know exactly how the offense is going to operate with the new offensive coordinator. Andrews should remain the focal point of the offense, but there's enough uncertainty here, given his likely third-round cost, to make him the biggest risk in this offense.