As I wrote in last week's Dynasty wide receiver rankings update, there seem to be more losers than winners this offseason. Davante Adams, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett all got significant downgrades at quarterback and there weren't as many big names moving up to replace them. And now we can add Tyreek Hill to the list.
I'm not sure we know exactly how good Tua Tagovailoa is, or how much Hill could change that, but it seems obvious that Hill's 2022 floor and ceiling took a significant hit with his trade to the Miami Dolphins. After all, even if it turns out Tagovailoa is good, good is a far cry from what Hill has experienced the past three seasons. It's enough to knock him out of my top 12 in re-draft and out of my top three tiers in Dynasty.
Hill will be 28 years old when the season starts, which isn't an age where I'd start worrying about decline, but it is an age where you're more valuable to a win-now team than you are to a rebuilding squad. My expectation is that he will still be very good three years from now, but at the same time he certainly has more decline risk than younger receivers.
- Tiers: QB | RB | WR | TE | Dynasty Central
As with Adams and Lockett, if you aren't a young receiver, any hit to your short-term value is going to be felt in your Dynasty value. And the expectation should probably be that Hill's value continues to move the direction it is. A scroll down to Tier 6 shows perennial top 12 wide receivers Mike Evans, Michael Thomas, Keenan Allen, and DeAndre Hopkins. All are older than Hill, and all are moving the wrong direction in Dynasty value.
What do you do if you're the Hill manager? If you're a contender, it's pretty easy. You hold and hope that he elevates his quarterback enough to remain a Fantasy WR1. But if you're rebuilding I would be trying to turn him into picks or one of the younger wide receivers in Tier 4 (or higher). It's possible his value gets a boost if he gets off to a hot start in 2022, but it's more likely he falls out of the top five tiers by this time next year.
Here are my updated Dynasty wide receiver tiers:
