When the Colts placed running back Jonathan Taylor on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list on Tuesday, they immediately made him unavailable for his first four games of the 2023 season. Taylor cannot play in Weeks 1 through 4, no matter what team he is on, no matter what the status of his contract is, no matter how healthy he is, no matter what. He's out.
Every other game is up for grabs. There are paths to him playing as many as 13 games in 2023, there are paths to him playing anywhere from 12 to two games, and there are paths to him playing zero games in 2023.
There are two important points to remember:
- If Taylor wants to be eligible for free agency in the spring of 2024, he must be a part of the active roster for a minimum of six games. If he is not, then his contract effectively resets and he's under the same terms for next year as this year.
- Taylor gets credit for the four games he's placed on the PUP list if he passes a physical and is removed from the PUP list.
After consulting with CBS Sports contributor and former NFL agent Joel Corry, here are all the scenarios that Taylor's holdout/saga with the Colts could play out.
Best case
- If Taylor is traded while he's on the PUP list, which is allowed by NFL rule, he would be eligible to come off and play as soon as Week 5 provided he passes his physical. That would make him eligible to play up to 13 regular-season games with a new team.
- If Taylor passes his physical with the Colts after Week 4, then he would be eligible to play as soon as Week 5 and be on the field for up to 13 regular-season games with the team. This assumes that Taylor actually wants to play these games for the Colts.
Disappointing case
- If Taylor passes his physical with the Colts after Week 4 then he suddenly refuses to practice or complains he's still hurt -- maybe it's his back, or an ear infection -- then the team could claim the player's conduct is detrimental to the team and suspend him, without pay, for up to four more games. He would not get credit for those games toward free agency. Once his suspension is served he is eligible to re-join the team and potentially play up to nine games.
- If Taylor passes his physical with the Colts after Week 4 and wants to at least put some evidence out there that he's capable of playing football at a high level, he could opt to play ... until he thinks he's shown enough.
- The timing of this scenario could fluctuate quite a bit -- he could make excuses for not playing after being activated, then opt to play late in the season, perhaps in an effort to show off his skill-set with fresh legs against tired competition.
- Or he could get back in his pads as soon as Week 5 and go until the trade deadline (before Week 9) in hopes of showing other teams exactly what he's capable of. He could then pull the stunt in the prior scenario -- the back pain/ear infection complaint -- and try forcing his way off the field.
- He also doesn't have to play any more than two games because the four matchups he missed while on the PUP list count toward the six necessary for free-agency eligibility. Once he banks six games, he could try to find a way to miss the rest.
Worse case
- If Taylor claims he can pass a physical before Week 6 but the Colts disagree and fail his physical, he has the right to file a grievance with the NFL Players Association, which means court hearings, lawyers and a potentially elongated wait for him to come back and play. This would severely limit the number of games he plays, if any. Corry referred to this option as "diabolical."
- If Taylor passes his physical with the Colts after Week 4 but the Colts decide they don't want him to be a distraction on game day, they could deactivate him each week. This is what the Texans did with Deshaun Watson in 2021. In this case, Taylor gets paid and also gets credit toward free agency, but he doesn't get to actually play. This seems very unlikely, but if the Colts are going to get petty, maybe they consider it.
Doomsday
- If Taylor does not pass his physical by Week 6 and isn't activated off the PUP list, he will play zero games and his contract resets. He will not be a free agent.
If you have not yet drafted
Taylor's absence through Week 4 means he's gone for nearly the first 30% of the Fantasy Football regular season. The path to him playing 13 games seemingly hinge on a trade, something that didn't materialize in late August, so it's not so simple to assume one might in September or October.
Think about where you might draft Alvin Kamara and Kadarius Toney: Kamara will miss three games, but when he comes back he'll be, hopefully, a start-worthy Fantasy rusher. His ADP is in Round 6, which is probably three rounds farther than Taylor would go in the event we knew he would play 13 games. Toney, on the other hand, has experienced so many injuries and issues that no one in Fantasy drafts would take him with a meaningful pick. His ADP is Round 11, which suggests that's the point in drafts most managers would be willing to "throw away" a pick on a player who seemingly has low odds of working out.
What round might you draft Taylor if he wound up being a "throw away"? The talent in Round 7 is still pretty solid, so I feel like Round 8 or 9 is the right time to take a chance on Taylor, even if he ends up being a headache for your roster.
If you have drafted Taylor
First thing's first: If your league has IR spots, you should be able to put Taylor in one of them. That frees up a roster spot for you to go get a running back off waivers. Of course, nothing great will be there, but two Colts rushers who might at least fill a spot are veterans Zack Moss and Deon Jackson along with rookie Evan Hull. It looks like some combination of those three will be the Colts' options to begin the year. Moss is the most well-known but he's coming back from a broken forearm and has a litany of injuries in his past. I like Hull's stout build, versatility (good hands!) and awesome lateral agility. He'd be my first pick over Jackson.
If you have decent running back depth behind Taylor, then you probably have no need to panic to find a Week 1 starter. Stay calm.
If you do not have decent running back depth, consider a trade for any human running back with a pulse and a good chance of playing in Week 1. Raheem Mostert of the Dolphins and Jamaal Williams of the Saints are two RBs with low ADPs and potential starting gigs to begin this season. You should not have to give up much in trade for them -- maybe a two-for-one where you deal a WR for a lesser WR and one of those RBs ... but only do this if you are really in need of RB help.
Here's the last thing: Don't trade Taylor away for peanuts. You may have made one mistake by drafting him with an early-round pick, but it doesn't mean you have to make a second mistake by giving him away for nothing special. A pair of players with a Round 7 or 8 ADP might be the absolute minimum I'd consider in trade for Taylor between now and Week 1.
