When news broke that Tony Pollard was joining the Tennessee Titans, the writing was on the wall: Derrick Henry was on the way out. We didn't have to wait long to find out that Henry would be signing with the Baltimore Ravens to join Lamar Jackson in the backfield. It's not often we get excited about a 30-year-old running back, but Henry has proven us wrong plenty of times in the past.
Henry has led the NFL in rush attempts in four of the past five seasons, with injuries in 2021 being the only thing that stopped him that year. But just because he led the league in attempts last year shouldn't lead you to believe he was the same guy. His 4.2 yards per carry was tied for a career low and his 68.6 yards per game was his lowest total since 2017. I wouldn't necessarily expect a big bounce back in the per-game numbers.
The situation in Baltimore is a mixed bag. He'll have a better offensive line than he did in Tennessee and backs next to Lamar Jackson have generally been more efficient because of the threat of Jackson's legs. Still, at least some of that run-game efficiency was a credit to Greg Roman. Need evidence? Gus Edwards averaged at least five yards per carry every season with Roman but fell to 4.1 last year. The bigger drawback in Baltimore for Henry is that he won't see 70% of the team's rush attempts like he's used to, That's because Jackson generally accounts for a third of the team's runs and Keaton Mitchell should play a similar role to what Tyjae Spears did in Tennessee last year. One other benefit of being next to Jackson is that he doesn't hog touchdowns like Jalen Hurts does, so Henry should post double-digit scores for the seventh straight season.
My initial projection for Henry puts him at around 1,100 total yards and 11 touchdowns, or a low-end No. 2 running back. While I could understand being more bullish than that strictly based on a projection, I wouldn't want to draft a 30-year-old back expecting 17 games and an efficiency rebound. In other words, even if you think my projection is light, Henry's age and injury risk mean should shouldn't draft him in the first three rounds anyway.
In full PPR, view Henry in the same range as Austin Ekeler and Aaron Jones. You'll feel great about these guys in the mid-rounds but they carry too much risk to draft anywhere close to where they used to be drafted. As always, Henry gets a boost in non and half-PPR leagues.
In Dynasty, there are two sides of the coin. If you're not a true contender you should take this opportunity to see if you can get an early Round 2 pick. As a contender I wouldn't want to trade for someone his age in the offseason, I'd prefer to wait until October or November and see if he's still healthy and productive.
