After a crowd-pleasing start, it's been a tough two days here, but we're still +175 through five days of the playoffs and anyone would take that when we're trying mostly to call home runs or strikeout totals. It's tough business. By way of reminder, I'm doing game picks over on SportsLine and there are two more up right now. I've gone 8-2-1 thus far in the playoffs -- and that was after an 0-1-1 start in the AL wild card game -- so hop on over there and subscribe.
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
White Sox four or more runs after six innings +155
This is actually listed under "quality pitching" and the Astros conceding four or more runs after six innings.
The White Sox's proverbial backs are against the wall and they'll come out swinging. They are a much better team at home than on the road, they know this and this is a group that thrives on swagger and confidence. They are also a sleeping giant on the power front. After the first two games of the ALDS, the White Sox sit with 18 hits in the series. Every single one is a single. This regular season, they had 110 home runs in Guaranteed Rate Field compared to just 80 on the road.
Also, Astros starter Luis Garcia had a 2.39 ERA at home this season vs. 4.24 on the road. He allowed a .609 OPS at home compared to .753 on the road.
I like the White Sox to jump on him early.
Red Sox score first +125
Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi is starting for the Red Sox and in his last two outings against the Rays, he gave up just one run in 14 innings while striking out 18. He's been better at home than on the road this season and was very sharp against the Yankees in the AL Wild Card Game. Plus, the Rays have been much more scary against left-handers and more mediocre against righties for the past month-plus.
On the other side, something seemed to jar loose with the inconsistent Red Sox's offense in Game 2, notably with J.D. Martinez returning to the lineup and Rafael Devers homering amid injury concerns. During the regular season, they hit for 40 points better average and 107 points higher OPS at home.
Rays starter Drew Rasmussen is good and there's nothing to indicate that he falls apart or anything, but I'm trusting Eovaldi and the Red Sox offense.
Xander Bogaerts homers +400
We missed on home runs the past two days, so it would be easy to be a bit gunshy here, but let's keep in mind the boost +400 would give us here and that I did hit on three homers in the first three days of the playoffs (Giancarlo Stanton in the AL Wild Card game, Nelson Cruz and Yordan Alvarez on the first day of the ALDS).
We'll give it a go with Bogaerts. After another excellent regular season, the underrated shortstop has gone 6 for 11 with two homers so far in the playoffs. He loves hitting in Fenway, too, as he hit .316 with a .553 slugging at home with 15 homers in the regular season, compared to .275, .438 and eight homers on the road.
He has also crushed the Rays this year. During the regular season, he went 21 of 49 (.429) with two doubles and two homers. He's 5 for 9 with a home run so far this series.
