After losing in the National League Division Series to their division rivals last year, the Atlanta Braves will look for redemption as they take on the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 1 of the 2023 NLDS on Saturday. The Braves (104-58), champions of the NL East for the sixth year in a row, have won 100 or more games two consecutive years for the first time since 2002 and 2003. The Phillies (90-72), who played in their eighth World Series in 2022 and first since 2009, are the fourth seed in the 2023 MLB playoffs. The Braves won eight of 13 meetings with Philadelphia during the regular season. Spencer Strider will get the start for the Braves, while the Phillies will turn to Ranger Suarez after using Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola in the Wild Card Series.
The game from Truist Park in Atlanta is scheduled to start at 6:07 p.m. ET. The Braves had MLB's best batting average at .276, while the Phillies were ninth at .256. Atlanta is a -206 favorite on the money line (risk $206 to win $100) in the latest Phillies vs. Braves odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total runs scored is 8.5. Before making any Braves vs. Phillies picks, be sure to check out the latest MLB predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons. It entered the 2023 MLB playoffs 91-73 on all top-rated MLB picks this season and has excelled on top-rated run-line picks, going 18-6 (+766). Anybody following has seen big returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Braves vs. Phillies and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB betting lines and trends for Phillies vs. Braves:
- Braves vs. Phillies money line: Philadelphia +173, Atlanta -206
- Braves vs. Phillies over/under: 8.5 runs
- Braves vs. Phillies run line: Atlanta -1.5 (-104)
- PHIL: The Phillies were 13-9 (+244) in Suarez starts this season
- ATL: The Braves have hit the game total over in 89 of their last 153 games
- Braves vs. Phillies picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why you should back the Braves
Center fielder Michael Harris II is on fire entering the postseason with hits in each of his last five games, including three multi-hit performances. In a 10-9 loss to the Washington Nationals in the season finale, he was 2-for-5 with a double and two RBI. In 138 games this season, Harris hit .293 with 33 doubles, three triples, 18 homers, 57 RBI and 76 runs scored. Against Philadelphia this year, he hit three doubles, three homers and drove in seven runs.
First baseman Matt Olson provides the power for the Braves, and enters the playoffs on an eight-game hitting streak. In 162 games played, Olson batted .283 with 27 doubles, three triples, a franchise record 54 home runs, 139 RBI and 127 runs scored. Over the past three seasons, Olson has popped 127 homers. In 13 games against Philadelphia this season, he has hit six homers and driven in 15 runs with a .271 batting average. See which team to back here.
Why you should back the Phillies
Suarez (4-6, 4.18 ERA) is expected to get the start for Philadelphia. In 22 starts this season, he has walked 48, while striking out 119 in 125 innings. Suarez has won his last two decisions, including a 5-4 win over the New York Mets on Sept. 21. In that game, he pitched 6 2/3 innings, allowing four earned runs on five hits, while walking two and striking out six. He has faced Atlanta once this year, a 4-2 loss on June 20. He went six innings, allowing just one earned run on four hits, walking two and striking out seven.
Offensively, the Phillies have been led by DH Bryce Harper. During the regular season, Harper batted .293 with 21 homers, 72 RBI and 84 runs scored in 126 games. He was a big reason Philadelphia made its march to last year's World Series. In 17 postseason games in 2022, Harper hit .349 with seven doubles, six homers and 13 RBI. He was 1-for-4 in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series against Miami on Tuesday. See which team to back here.
How to make Phillies vs. Braves picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting nine combined runs. It also says one side of the money line has all of the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Braves vs. Phillies, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has gone 91-73 on its top-rated MLB picks, and find out.
