The Cardinals will win the NL Central with a win at home over the Cubs on Sunday or a Brewers loss to the Rockies in Coors Field. Obviously, St. Louis would prefer to tend to their own business so that they can celebrate a division crown after actually winning a game.
In the service of doing that, they'll trot out ace Jack Flaherty:
Those are strong overall numbers for 2019, but they really undersell the roll that Flaherty has been on since just before the break. Here's what he's done over his last 15 starts:
99 1/3 IP, 1.00 ERA, 124 SO, 23 BB, 6 HR, .431 opponent OPS
Yep, Flaherty has authored a 1.00 ERA over those last 15 trips to the mound. His fastball command has been tremendous, and his slider has been filthier than ever. So needing one win for the NL Central title, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt tabbed Flaherty to take the bump against the Cubs on Sunday.
Coming into the final series of the regular season, the Cardinals shuffled their rotation a bit so that Adam Wainwright would start the second game against Chicago. That left Flaherty and Miles Mikolas available to start Sunday. Shildt kept it simple and went with his best starting pitcher.
The Cardinals of course have already clinched a spot in the postseason, but right now it's not certain whether they'll go in as the division champ and face the Braves in the NLDS or play a divisional tiebreaker on Monday against Milwaukee. If they lose to the Cubs on Sunday and the Brewers top the Rockies, then Mikolas will start Monday in St. Louis to decide the division. If they win and advance to the ALDS, then likely Dakota Hudson would start Game 1 in Atlanta.
Here's the good news for St. Louis, provided they win the division. Even though Flaherty starts Sunday, he'll still be able to make two starts on full rest in the NLDS. The series doesn't begin until Thursday, Oct. 3. That means Flaherty could start Game 2 on Oct. 4 on four days of rest. If the series goes the full five games, then Flaherty could also start that Game 5 in Atlanta on Oct. 9. Even though it's a best-of-five, the series has two off days baked in, so that means the Game 1 or Game 2 starter can make a second start on full rest. St. Louis would obviously give that second start to Flaherty.
The nightmare scenario is of course playing in and losing the NL Central tiebreaker. That would put the Cardinals in the NL Wild Card Game against Max Scherzer and the Nationals on Tuesday, Oct. 1. That would mean St. Louis would have exactly one member of the rotation available on full rest -- Michael Wacha, who has a 4.76 ERA for the season and who suffered a shoulder strain his last time out. If Wacha's shoulder is OK by then, maybe they try to get one trip through the order out of him before playing matchups the rest of the way. If Wacha isn't 100 percent, then maybe they go Hudson on three days' rest and likewise try to squeeze nine batters out of him. Either way, the Cardinals would be solid underdogs.
It doesn't need to be said that the Cardinals would very much prefer to have nothing to do with a tiebreaker or wild-card encounter with the Nats, and Flaherty obviously gives them the best chance to dodge both outcomes. Starting Flaherty Sunday also won't affect his ability to take the bump twice in a five-game NLDS. On the other hand, losses by the Cardinals on Sunday and Monday likely mean a season-ending loss on Tuesday.
