Friday brought us a full load of four Division Series games, and that means it's time for a fresh look at the playoff odds.
To get a better idea of this, we'll at turn to compadres over at SportsLine (@SportsLine on Twitter). Over there, they cook up projections and playoff percentages for each team and tell you what each team's chances of winning the pennant and World Series are. These numbers aren't just plucked from thin air; they come to us via the SportsLine projection system.
Let's dig in ...
AMERICAN LEAGUE | ALCS ODDS | LCS% | WS ODDS | WS% |
Cleveland Indians (102-60, 63%) | 1/1, 50% | 51.15% | 9/4, 30.8% | 30.42% |
Houston Astros (101-61, 62.3%) | 13/5, 27.8% | 40.33% | 6/1, 14.3% | 19.06% |
New York Yankees (91-71, 56.2%) | 6/1, 14.3% | 5.08% | 14/1, 6.7% | 2.25% |
Boston Red Sox (93-69, 57.4%) | 9/2, 18.2% | 3.44% | 9/1, 10% | 1.66% |
| | | | | |
NATIONAL LEAGUE | NLCS ODDS | LCS% | WS ODDS | WS% |
Los Angeles Dodgers (104-58, 64.2%) | 1/1, 50% | 42.48% | 5/2, 28.6% | 21.59% |
Chicago Cubs (92-70, 56.8%) | 4/1, 20% | 27.19% | 10/1, 9.1% | 11.63% |
Washington Nationals (97-65, 59.9%) | 7/2, 22.2% | 14.30% | 10/1, 9.1% | 7.28% |
Arizona Diamondbacks (93-69, 57.4%) | 6/1, 14.3% | 16.04% | 14/1, 6.7% | 6.13% |
The Indians and Astros are of course up 2-0 on the Yankees and Red Sox, respectively, and that's why there's better than a 90 percent chance that one of those two teams wins the pennant. Over in the NL, the Cubs have vaulted into second position by virtue of their road win over the Nationals in Game 1.
Now, though, let's circle back to the AL and talk about the Yankees. In Friday's Game 2, Yankees manager Joe Girardi made a huge gaffe by not challenging a hit-by-pitch call in the sixth inning. With two out and runners on the corners and reliever Chad Green staked to an 8-3 lead, Lonnie Chisenhall fouled off six straight pitches before plate ump ruled that the seventh pitch of the at-bat hit him on the hand. That, of course, loaded the bases.
The problem is that it appeared on replay and, really, to the naked eye that the pitch hit the knob of Chisenhall's bat and then settled into Gary Sanchez's glove. It should've been a foul-tip strikeout that ended the inning, but instead it lead to the Yankees' biggest blown lead in a playoff game since 2002 ...
The question is why Yankees manager Joe Girardi didn't challenge the ruling on the field. Catcher Gary Sanchez was imploring him to do so, but Girardi -- citing uncertainty and not wanting to upset his pitcher's rhythm (?!) -- opted not to. It was a massive tactical error on Girardi's part, and it's no exaggeration to say it altered his team's season.
Speaking of which, here's how that one decision -- to not challenge the HBP call -- moved the needle on the Yankees' chances of winning the pennant and the World Series ...
YANKEES CHANCES | LCS% | WS% |
If Girardi Challenged & Yankees Won | 21.73% | 10.06% |
Current Forecast | 5.08% | 2.25% |
Non-Challenge Impact | -16.65% | -7.81% |
In essence, had Girardi challenged the call, then the Yankees' World Series odds would've been roughly 4.5 times what they are right now (assuming the Yankees went on to protect that five-run lead). Using basic win expectancy, if Girardi challenges and the call is reversed (which almost certainly happens in the event of a challenge), then the Yankees have a 97.3 percent chance of winning Game 2.
As you know, things didn't quite turn out that way, and the Yankees, relative to the other seven teams left standing, are now World Series longshots.
(Enjoy this sort of thing? Get more of it at SportsLine.)
