Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors face a difficult test under the brightest lights of the NBA regular season. The Warriors visit the Denver Nuggets in a Christmas Day battle at Ball Arena. Golden State is 6-8 on the road this season, including an early November loss to Denver. The Nuggets bring a sparkling 11-2 record at home, led by Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray. Golden State will be without Draymond Green (suspension) and Gary Payton II (calf), while Andrew Wiggins (illness) is questionable.
For this 2:30 p.m. ET tip, SportsLine consensus lists Denver as a 6.5-point favorite. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 233.5 in the latest Warriors vs. Nuggets odds. Before making any Nuggets vs. Warriors picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 9 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 101-52 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning well over $4,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Nuggets and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Nuggets vs. Warriors:
- Warriors vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -6.5
- Warriors vs. Nuggets over/under: 233.5 points
- Warriors vs. Nuggets money line: Nuggets -273, Warriors +220
- Golden State: The Warriors are 8-6 against the spread in road games
- Denver: The Nuggets are 7-5-1 against the spread in home games
- Warriors vs. Nuggets picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Warriors can cover
The Warriors have strong defensive bonafides this season. Golden State is in the top five of the NBA in 3-point accuracy allowed, with opponents converting fewer than 35% of long-range attempts this season. The Warriors are also in the top 10 of the league in assists allowed and defensive rebound rate, with Golden State allowing fewer than 13 second-chance points per game. Denver is also in the bottom five of the NBA in both free throw creation and free accuracy, and the Nuggets are making fewer than 12 3-pointers per game.
On offense, the Warriors are prolific from 3-point range, making 15 triples per game. Golden State has a bevy of perimeter shooters, headlined by Curry and Klay Thompson, and the Warriors maintain top-six marks in assists per game and offensive rebound rate. Golden State does have ball security issues, but Denver forces fewer than 13 turnovers per game on defense in 2023-24. See which team to pick here.
Why the Nuggets can cover
The Nuggets are led by arguably the NBA's best player in Jokic. He has won two of the last three NBA MVP awards while finishing as the runner-up in the other season, and Jokic has been dominant in Christmas Day games. In his career, Jokic has averaged 29.3 points, 11.3 rebounds and 9.7 assists on Christmas, and he also put up 35 points and 13 rebounds in the win over Golden State in November. Last season, Jokic averaged 24 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists per game against the Warriors and, over the last four seasons, he is averaging 26 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists against the entire league.
In 2023-24, Jokic ranks in the top three of the NBA in rebounds and assists, and he remains one of the most efficient offensive creators in the league. He is the centerpiece of an elite offense, with the Nuggets scoring more than 1.18 points per possession this season. Denver is also scalding-hot at home, posting an 11-2 record with a +11.6 net rating and a 124.1 offensive rating this season. See which team to pick here.
How to make Nuggets vs. Warriors picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 234 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in 60% of simulations. You can only see the model's NBA picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Warriors vs. Nuggets, and which side of the spread hits 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model on a 101-52 roll on top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
