The Heat are too much for Trae Young and the Hawks to handle, plus other best bets for Friday

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I think Jimmy Butler had a point when he threw that temper tantrum in Minnesota. Maybe the Timberwolves and Karl-Anthony Towns aren't mentally tough enough to win in the postseason.

I'm not an expert, but I'm smart enough to know that you aren't going to win many playoff games when a cornerstone of your team finishes with more fouls than shots taken, which happened to KAT last night. Plus, it's not as if last night was a one-off event. In his NBA career, KAT has averaged 23.2 points on 52.7% shooting. In eight career playoff games, he's averaged 16.0 points while shooting 51.7%. How does he score seven fewer points per game while shooting nearly the same rate? Well, because he averages 16.2 shots per game in his career but only 11.1 per game in the postseason.

He's scared to shoot in big games, but I will not be scared to continue fading him from this point forward.

Now let's start the weekend off right, shall we?

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

The Hot Ticket

Heat at Hawks, 7 p.m. | TV: ESPN

Key Trend: The Heat have covered in five of the last six games between these two and are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 road games.
The Pick: Heat -1.5 (-110)

First of all, I wish sportsbooks offered player props on field-goal attempts because I'd be betting the over on Trae Young tonight no matter where they set it. Everything about Trae Young suggests that tonight is the night where he's going to decide that the only way the Hawks can get back into this series is if he shoots them back into the series. And he might. He's can change games when he's on.

But I'm betting the Heat. The first two games of this series have been another excellent reminder that scoring points can be a lot of fun, but you're not going to go far in the postseason if you don't defend. The Heat finished the regular season ranked fourth in the NBA in defensive rating. The Hawks were 26th but used the second-best offensive rating to earn the eighth seed. Atlanta's offense ranks 14th in the playoffs so far.

Offenses can run hot and cold, but defense isn't something a team can suddenly decide to start playing. If you were terrible defensively in the regular season, you're going to be bad in the postseason too, and Atlanta has been. The only way they're winning a game in this series is if Trae has one of Those Nights, and I'm not going to bet on that. I think it's far more likely Miami takes a 3-0 lead in the series tonight and lets Atlanta have Game 4 if it gives it a game at all.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The SportsLine Projection Model agrees with me that the Heat are the right play tonight, but it's just as excited about a play on the total too.

The Picks

NBA

Bucks at Bulls, 8:30 p.m. | TV: ABC
The Pick: Wesley Matthews Over 7.5 points (+100) -- Like many Bulls fans, Wednesday night's win in Milwaukee took me from "I'm just happy to be here and hope we can win a game" to "THE BULLS ARE BACK THIS SERIES IS OURS AND IF WE LOSE I'M GOING TO CRY MYSELF TO SLEEP FOR A MONTH." You know, the usual run of emotions a fan feels during the playoffs.

The first two games of this series suggest that it's more evenly matched than anticipated, as the Bulls have started defending as they did early in the season before injuries tore them apart. It's injuries that are hurting the Bucks now. Khris Middleton being out is a significant loss for the Bucks, and while my initial thought is that Milwaukee is still the better team in the series, I don't know how quickly they'll adjust.

I'm confident that Wesley Matthews will see his usage in the offense increase, as it already had in the first two games. With Middleton out, I think he'll see even more shots as the Bulls' defense will continue to be "make anybody but Giannis beat us." That probably leads to some open looks from three for Matthews.

Key Trend: Matthews' field goal attempts per game has risen from 4.5 in the regular season to 5.0 in this series, as he's scored 17 points.

Suns at Pelicans, 9:30 p.m. | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Chris Paul Over 37.5 Points, Assists & Rebounds (-115) -- Speaking of injuries that change things, losing Devin Booker is a significant blow to the Suns. Not so much that I think they lose this series, but I can't exactly rule out the possibility. You don't often see teams lose their leading scorer and not suffer some kind of drop-off. Thankfully, Phoenix still has Chris Paul. The Suns would've preferred to let Paul "relax" a bit in this series to save him for more difficult matchups later, but that option is out the window now.

Tonight we're going to see Paul doing everything to help the Suns overcome the absence of Booker. What it looks like specifically, I don't know. That's the beauty of Chris Paul. Maybe he decides he needs to score more, or maybe he decides he needs to get his teammates open shots and help out on the boards. Whatever the method, I think we're going to see a massive game from an all-time great tonight, so we're taking the over on his points, assists and rebounds.

Key Trend: Paul has averaged 39.5 points, assists and rebounds in the first two games of the series.

⚽ Soccer

Inter Milan vs. Roma, Saturday, 12 p.m. | TV: Paramount+
The Pick: Inter Milan (-165) -- When Roma scored late against Napoli Monday to steal a point and pick up a 1-1 draw, it kept the team's streak of 11 straight Serie A matches without a loss running, but it ended another streak. It was the first time in 12 Serie A matches that Roma allowed an opponent to finish a match with an expected goals (xG) higher than 1.0. This current run has been built on outstanding defending, and while most of it came against inferior opponents, there were matches with Lazio and Atalanta sprinkled in.

Saturday at San Siro will be a much tougher test for Roma, and even if it's been playing better of late, I have a hard time not going with Inter right now. Not only is Inter playing for the scudetto, but it's been in top form itself. It's won four straight across all competitions and outscored opponents (including Juventus and AC Milan) 9-1. Furthermore, have you seen what Inter has done against Roma this season? In December, it won the first match 3-0 at the Stadio Olimpico, allowing Roma to get only one shot on target. The Coppa Italia quarterfinal at San Siro didn't look much different, as Roma only had one shot on target as Inter won 2-0. Maybe Roma finds the back of the net the third time around, but even if it does, I'm not sure one will be enough.

Key Trend: Inter has outscored Roma 5-0 in two matches this season, holding Roma to only two shots on goal.

Bayern Munich vs. Borussia Dortmund, Saturday, 12:30 p.m. | TV: ABC
The Pick: Over 3.5 (-150) -- I don't often include Bundesliga matches here, but this is Der Klassiker, and I can't send you into the weekend without giving you a reason to watch. While these are the two best teams in Germany, there are no stakes based on the result, as Bayern has just about sewn up the league, but that doesn't matter. Der Klassiker is a methamphetamine. The goals come, and they keep coming, and two hours later, you come to after traveling through many different planes of existence, not sure what happened, what it meant, or where you got such a wicked headache.

The last 10 meetings between these clubs have seen an average of 4.5 goals per match. That includes a 1-0 Bayern win in May 2020, a result akin to seeing a unicorn riding a blue whale down your street. I could give you a bunch of fancy numbers to back the pick up too, but I don't have to. Just make the bet and strap yourself in for one hell of a ride.

Key Trend: An average of 4.5 goals per match have been scored in the last 10 meetings.

Chelsea vs. West Ham United, Sunday, 9 a.m. | TV: USA
The Pick: Over 2.5 (-110) -- Chelsea's 4-2 loss to Arsenal earlier this week was one of those matches where the terrible performances of the players led to an exhilarating game, but my main takeaway was the attitude of Chelsea. They look like a team ready to be done, and I don't blame them. It's a locker room full of players and coaches who have no idea what the future holds as the club's ownership remains in the air, and they were eliminated from the Champions League by Real Madrid. They're also in a spot in the standings where they know they can't win the league, but it would be nearly impossible to fall out of the top four and miss the Champions League next season.

In other words, there's not a whole lot to play for, and it showed in the team's defensive effort against Arsenal. West Ham has plenty to play for, as it's still in the Europa League and fighting for the chance to play in the Europa League again next season. I have an inkling the Hammers are prioritizing the current Europa League (winning it comes with a Champions League berth), so I won't be shocked if we see something of a "lesser" lineup for this match as the Hammers look to stay fresh for next week's Europa League semi against Frankfurt. This match might resemble a friendly scrimmage at the park more closely than a Premier League match.

Key Trend: No trend, just vibes.

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Looking for some Friday night baseball action? The Projection Model's favorite MLB play of the evening is a moneyline play between Tampa Bay and Boston.