For most of the offseason, it was widely assumed that the Houston Texans would land their quarterback of the future in this year's draft. The Texans own the No. 2 overall pick, after all, and with the Chicago Bears sitting at No. 1, it seemed likely that one of the best prospects would be there for Houston's choosing.
Even after the Bears traded the No. 1 overall pick to the Carolina Panthers, it was still considered highly likely that the Texans would take a quarterback at No. 2. That is, until the past couple of weeks, as it has become more and more clear that the quarterback the Texans really wanted was Alabama's Bryce Young (and there were even rumors of the Texans trading up from No. 2 to 1 to get him), and that the Panthers intend to take Young with the first pick themselves.
Now, there is a lot of smoke that not only will the Texans pass on a quarterback at No. 2, but they might not take one in the first round at all -- not at No. 12, not via a trade-up back into the top 10, or not late in the first after moving up from the early part of the second round. Why might that be? Let's run through the potential reasoning.
- The Texans only loved Bryce Young and find the other quarterback prospects flawed.
This is the explanation that holds the most water to me. With a first-year coaching staff on board, they might not want to hitch their wagon to a quarterback they like but don't love. There are questions about all of the top quarterbacks this year, including Young, and if the staff does not feel comfortable enough with Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Kentucky's Will Levis, or Florida's Anthony Richardson, the Texans roster has enough holes that you can talk yourself into passing on a QB and building out the rest of the infrastructure. Whether that's a better idea than picking the quarterback you like the best and molding your team around his skill set is up for debate.
- Their coaching staff is big on the S-2 cognition test and thinks it can find undervalued prospects by using it and/or believes that quarterbacks are more fungible than does the rest of the league.
Head coach DeMeco Ryans and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik came to Houston from the San Francisco 49ers, who are reportedly big believers in the S-2 test, which apparently played a role in their selecting Brock Purdy in last year's draft. How big a role? Who can say? They didn't take him until the last pick of the draft, so it's not like they were 100% sold Purdy was going to be really good because of the test. But perhaps they have a baseline number that if a quarterback does not exceed, they won't take him. We've also now seen the Niners make the NFC title game with two different quarterbacks over the past few years, and repeatedly find some sort of success with backups. Maybe the Texans think they can similarly scheme quarterbacks into successful situations and don't need to find their guy at the top of the draft. The track record of non-Kyle Shanahan coaches being able to do this is not strong.
- There might be other quarterbacks available via trade.
Trey Lance is apparently on the outs in San Francisco. Lamar Jackson still doesn't have a contract. Ryan Tannehill and/or Kirk Cousins could become available depending on what happens in the draft. Are any of these great options? With the exception of Jackson, not really. But we have seen teams talk themselves into worse ideas in the past.
- "Next year's quarterback class is better."
Every single year we hear this. We heard it last year, about this year's class! USC's Caleb Williams and North Carolina's Drake Maye are considered the best prospects in the 2024 draft class, and it's entirely possible that the NFL world feels exactly the same way about them this time next year that it does right now. But it's also possible that something changes. And of course, it's possible -- and perhaps likely -- that the Texans won't own the No. 2 overall pick again next year, and find themselves out of range to select one of those players.
All of this could have been solved had the Texans not gone for (and converted) a bunch of fourth downs and a two-point conversion in their final game of the season, earning a victory over the division rival Colts but gifting the No. 1 overall pick to the Bears, who later sent it to the Panthers. Had the Texans lost that game, they'd be sitting in the driver's seat to land their quarterback of choice.
