It's Super Bowl Sunday, and Tom Brady's New England Patriots are in the big game once again, which means we should expect plenty of drama. I have the Patriots' four most-recent Super Bowl trips ranked as , in fact. But there are plenty of interesting angles to consider when breaking down the game, whether or not this year's edition of the Super Bowl lives up to some of its predecessors.
From the longest field goal, to the shortest touchdown, to the coin toss, to the length of the national anthem, to whether Adam Levine wears a hat or not (yes, really), to safeties and overtimes and coach's challenges and everything in between, the Super Bowl prop market lets you take a side on virtually every aspect of Super Bowl Sunday. My colleagues and I have put together an awesome Ultimate Super Bowl Props Guide to go through the ins and outs of what everyone will be talking about Sunday.
But what if you don't want to keep track of 20, 30, 50 props or more? I've pulled some of my favorite props for you right here, including one 10-to-1 long shot I see coming in pretty early in the Super Bowl, which you can stream here on CBSSports.com or on CBS All Access.
Which team will score first?
The Patriots are a little bit more expensive, but I actually like their value here for a couple of reasons. One, they're the "away" team here, so they will get to call the coin toss (which is maybe an advantage?). Two, look at what New England did in its two playoff games, getting the ball first and wearing down the opposing defense on a lengthy touchdown drive. Bill Belichick might value having the ball second too much in the Super Bowl, but I think he likes trying to eat up clock on a soul-sucking opening drive. Three, the Rams looked sloppy against the Saints early on and the Chiefs looked sloppy against the Patriots early on. I'll bet on Belichick to confound Jared Goff early.
Player to score first touchdown of game
Rob Gronkowski (+1000)
This is a massive overreaction to Gronk's struggles. Maybe Aqib Talib is on him all game or in the red zone and that could be a difficult matchup. But he is still one of the best red zone targets we've ever seen and he could easily end up in single coverage down near the goal line. If that happens, I like his chances to win the battle and come down with the ball. In another year Gronk is much lower on this list (like 4-1 or 5-1). Take the value at 10-1.
James White receiving yards
Over 53.5 (-110)
This feels like it should be a lock -- White could have been Super Bowl MVP two years ago and has three postseason games with 16-plus targets in his career, including one game against a Wade Phillips defense. Rams linebackers are going to be targeted. I like the over in a lot of the Patriots' passing stats, which means if Sony Michel dominates I might be in a bit of trouble here.
Total touchdowns by both teams
Over 6.5 (-130)
Seven touchdowns implies 49 points scored by the offenses, before we even account for field goals being kicked (four looks like the number they're targeting for those based on the odds), which gets us to 61 total points. So there might not be a ton of value in the over if you believe we get four field goals. Still, I think it's a situation, with these offenses, where we could end up seeing four touchdowns in the fourth quarter alone. I get that these offenses are methodical and they might take it slow out of the gate, but I wouldn't want to be holding the Under on this bet at any time in the second half if we get north of two touchdowns in the first half.
How many players will have a passing attempt?
Over 2.5 (-110)
Basically you need a trick play. The Super Bowl is BUILT for trick plays. It might seem too obvious after we saw four guys attempt a pass during last year's Super Bowl, but I think both offenses set up well for this because of how they use their various players. The Rams are constantly running jet sweeps, and we could see Brandin Cooks or someone stop short and throw downfield. The Patriots have said they're willing to give Brady a chance at catching a ball again after last year's failed effort.
Will there be a lead change in the fourth quarter?
What? We just assume this game will be owned by the same team in the fourth quarter? Have you watched the Patriots' Super Bowls at all? Give me the drama that is likely to unfold. The past three Pats Super Bowls all had lead changes either in the fourth quarter (Eagles, Seahawks) or overtime (Falcons). I'm a little surprised at this number, to be honest. I get New England could be leading and run the clock out but at +200 or more this is just good value considering the way things have gone in the past for the Patriots.
Who wins Patriots vs. Rams? And which side of the spread has all the value, making it a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors over the past two seasons!