The Giants and Vikings went head to head on Christmas Eve, and their NFC playoff preview went down to the wire, with Greg Joseph's 61-yard field goal lifting Minnesota at home. Now, weeks later, the contenders are set for a rematch on the same turf. Except this time, the loser goes home for good. New York is making just its second playoff appearance of the last decade, while the Vikings are looking to prove their 13-4 debut under Kevin O'Connell is not a mirage, despite their negative point differential.
After their first matchup was so close, which side warrants your trust in Round Two? Here's a betting overview:
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Jan. 15 | Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis, Minnesota)
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Vikings -3, O/U 48 (Courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Giants at Vikings spread picks
"These two played on Christmas Eve, and the Vikings needed a 61-yard field goal by Greg Joseph to win it. The Giants gained 448 yards of offense that day and probably should have won the game. But they didn't. Now it's a road playoff game, which will be a challenge. Even so, I think Brian Daboll will take advantage of a bad Minnesota defense. This one should be high scoring, as Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson will make some plays, but it will be the Giants that win it with a late field goal this time to advance." -- CBS Sports senior NFL writer Pete Prisco likes New York here. Check out all his wild-card picks here.
"Although I don't trust [Kirk Cousins] in this game, I trust Daniel Jones less. The Giants QB will be making the first playoff start of his career and ... quarterbacks tend to struggle when making the first start of their playoff career in the wild-card round. The upside for the Giants, though, is that Brian Daboll can take the game out of Jones' hands by unleashing Saquon Barkley, which is what I think we'll see. I won't be surprised at all if Barkley gets around 20 carries in this game." -- CBS Sports NFL writer John Breech is also taking the Giants in a close one. Find all his Super Wild Card Weekend picks here.
"It's hard for me to lean on a team that is the first club in NFL history to have at least 12 wins and a negative point differential. Minnesota has been phenomenal in one-score games this season, boasting an 11-0 record. One of those wins came against these Giants, but it's worth pointing out that they were missing both of their starting corners for that game and could have both healthy for this matchup this weekend. New York was the best team to bet on this season with a 13-4 ATS record and Brian Daboll is arguably the best coach in these playoffs. He formulates a plan that continues to highlight the skill set of Daniel Jones, and DC Wink Martindale deploys a defense that gives this banged-up Vikings O-line fits en route to the upset." -- CBS Sports NFL writer Tyler Sullivan has the Giants winning by four. Here's his full breakdown.
Line movement
This one opened with the Vikings -3 on Monday, Jan. 9, immediately following Minnesota's easy win over the Bears in Week 18, as well as the Giants' 22-16 loss to the Eagles, in which Brian Daboll rested most of his big-name starters. It moved to -3.5 in favor of Minnesota on Tuesday night but quickly went back down to -3, perhaps as a result of wagers in favor of New York. Regardless, the close line indicates this one is a true toss-up in the eyes of oddsmakers; typically, home-field advantage is worth a slight edge, so if this were on a neutral field, it may even register as a pick'em. As for the total, it's moved slightly from 47.5.
Betting trends
Consider these ahead of Sunday's game:
- The Giants are 4-0 against the spread in their last four games.
- The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
- The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games immediately following a loss.
- The Vikings are 2-8-1 in their last 11 games vs. NFC opponents.
- The Giants are 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning record.
- The Over is 5-0-1 in the Giants' last six games on turf.
- The Over is 6-1 in the Vikings' last seven games.
Props to consider
Daniel Jones Over 241.5 passing yards (-117): The Giants QB has remarkably only eclipsed this total twice this season, but the last time he faced the porous Minnesota pass defense, he hit 334, his second-highest total of the year. The Vikings' secondary hasn't undergone a facelift since then, and should remain vulnerable. Jones, meanwhile, has additional chemistry with guys like Richie James and Isaiah Hodgins.
Giants winning margin 1-6 points (+325): If you're gonna bet on New York as a road underdog here, you're almost certainly projecting a tight contest. Thirteen of the Giants' 17 games this year, or 76%, had a one-score margin. In fact, if you go the other way and bet Vikings as the winners here, there's no reason not to take the same approach, wagering on a Minnesota win of 1-6 points (+290). All signs point to this one going down to the wire, just as it did on Christmas Eve.
Justin Jefferson first TD scorer (+550): Few players are better positioned to go off in this matchup than the Vikings' top target, who racked up 12 catches for 100+ yards and a score in their last meeting. The Giants' secondary remains a concern, with cornerback Adoree' Jackson still banged up, and Kevin O'Connell will likely be wanting to get Jefferson going early and often, considering Minnesota has tended to spiral out of control on the rare occasion "Jets" is erased in coverage.
Prediction
Can the Vikings be trusted? On one hand, their utter inability to win convincingly this year suggests not. On the other, their improbable resilience in crunch time suggests so. The best thing they have going for them here is probably the fact the Giants are in a similar boat: Despite an unbelievably scrappy run under a first-time head coach, with lots of close games under their belt, the G-Men do not possess the kind of all-around talent that contenders like the Eagles and Cowboys flexed in their blowouts of Minnesota this year. We expect Daboll's squad to give it their all, with Jones poised for another productive day through the air. But Kirk Cousins and the Vikings' aerial attack is historically much better at home, on turf, and Jefferson can certainly torch even the healthy Giants secondary. It'd only be fitting if we get another nail-biter, but give the hosts the edge.
Score: Vikings 28, Giants 26
Pick: Giants +3, Over 48
