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The Washington Commanders will try to avoid losing more ground to their improved NFC East rivals when they take on the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football. The Commanders (1-4) sit in last place in the division. They already trail the division-leading Eagles (5-0) by four games and the Cowboys and Giants (both 4-1) by three games. Meanwhile, the Bears (2-3) are in third place in the NFC North, two games behind the division-leading Vikings (4-1).

Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET in Chicago. Caesars Sportsbook lists the game as a pick'em at Soldier Field, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 38 in the latest Bears vs. Commanders odds. Before making any Commanders vs. Bears picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 6 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 146-105 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bears vs. Commanders and just locked in its picks and TNF predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Commanders vs. Bears:

  • Bears vs. Commanders spread: PK
  • Bears vs. Commanders over/under: 38 points
  • Bears vs. Commanders money line: Commanders -110, Bears -110
  • WASH: Commanders are 1-4 against the spread this season
  • CHI: Bears are 2-2-1 against the spread in 2022
  • Bears vs. Commanders picks: See picks at SportsLine

Why the Commanders can cover

Washington faces an anemic Chicago offense. The Bears average just 17.2 points per game, and just four teams average fewer. They also are tied for the third-fewest touchdowns on the season with eight.

In addition, the Commanders will face a Chicago defense that has struggled against the run. The Bears have allowed eight rushing touchdowns this season, and just the Seahawks and Lions have given up more. Chicago also has allowed 850 rushing yards, which is one yard fewer than the worst rushing defense in the league (Seattle). See which team to back here.

Why the Bears can cover

The Bears are excellent on the ground on offense, averaging 157.4 rushing yards per game, ranking in the top five of the NFL. That includes 4.9 yards per carry, and Chicago has a pair of dynamic running backs in David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert. Chicago is enjoying red zone success with seven touchdowns in 12 trips inside the 20-yard line and will face a Washington defense that is No. 26 or worse in total defense, turnover creation, passing defense, passer rating allowed, and passing touchdowns allowed.

On defense, Chicago is yielding only 21.2 points per game and 1.83 points per drive, and the Bears have forced eight turnovers in five games. Roquan Smith leads the way with an NFL-leading 54 tackles in five games, and Washington is below-average in scoring offense, turnover prevention, sack prevention, rushing yards per game, and rushing yards per attempt. See which team to back here.

How to make Bears vs. Commanders picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over the total, calling for 42 combined points. It also says one side of the spread cashes in well over 60% of simulations. You can only get the model's TNF picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Commanders vs. Bears on Thursday Night Football? And which side of the spread cashes well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Commanders vs. Bears spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $7,000 on its NFL picks since 2017, and find out.