Tom Brady. Nick Foles. The last time the two quarterbacks met, a Lombardi Trophy was at stake. The winner? The plucky underdog Foles, who entered the season a backup quarterback only to lead the Eagles to a title when it mattered most. There's far less on the line this time around, and the sequel features the pair of former Super Bowl MVPs on different teams, but each has their own Super Bowl aspirations at 3-1. Can Foles notch another unexpected win, or will today be the day the empire strikes back?
We're going to get you ready for the matchup on the gambling side of things in this space, including what you need to know about each aspect of the game from a betting perspective. All odds via William Hill Sportsbook.
What picks can you make with confidence in Week 5? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that is up over $7,300 on its top-rated picks.
How to watch
Date: Thursday, Oct. 8 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: Soldier Field (Chicago, Illinois)
TV: FOX, NFL Network | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Buccaneers (-3.5) at Bears
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| Bucs (-5.5) at Bears |  | | |  | | | | |
This line reopened at Bucs -6 on Sunday evening, but it's steadily decreased from there, presumably due to injury concerns on the Tampa Bay offense. The line moved to Bucs -5.5 by Monday morning, -5 by Tuesday afternoon, -4.5 by Tuesday evening, -4 by Wednesday morning and -3.5 by Wednesday afternoon. It seems likely sharps will be poised to buy back the favorite if the line drops any further.
While Tom Brady is 8-0-1 ATS on short rest since 2016, per CBS Sports research, those games obviously came with Bill Belchick at coach, which has to be a huge advantage on a quick turnaround. Since the start of last year, Tampa Bay has covered all three games as road favorites and beat the line by at least 12 points in each. One other stat of note: Thursday night road favorites have struggled over the last four years, putting together a 9-16-1 ATS record.
Pick: Bucs -3.5. I think we're getting great value at this number considering where it started at the beginning of the week. While Chris Godwin, Justin Watson and likely Leonard Fournette are sidelined, Tom Brady should still be able to find some success with whoever is healthy (keep your eyes on a pair of rookies in Ke'Shawn Vaughn and Tyler Johnson), especially with his offensive line doing a great job through four weeks. And while the focus has been on Brady, this Bucs defense has been one of the best defensive units in the league. It's going to be a tough nut to crack for Foles and Co. on a short week after they could do nothing against a similarly-talented Colts defense.
Over/Under 44.5 points
This total opened at 45 but has spent most of the week bouncing between 44 and 44.5.
Pick: Under 44.5. I know this NFL season has been dictated by offensive shootouts, but these two teams have better defenses than offenses right now, with the top units both ranking in the top six in points allowed per drive and the top seven in defensive DVOA. Throw in a Bears offense that did nothing last week and a Bucs offense with injuries at the skill position, and this one looks ripe to go under. If you're a little uncomfortable backing the Under after last week's Brady performance, you can always look to the Bears team total and go Under 20.5 on that line.
Player props
Tom Brady
O/U 23.5 completions
O/U 35.5 attempts
O/U 264.5 passing yards
O/U 1.5 passing TDs (Over -140)
O/U 0.5 interceptions (Under -125)
Brady's stats have been trending upward over the last few weeks, but it sure is hard to take any of his Overs when most of his weapons are on the injury report. The Bucs defense potentially shutting down the Bears and letting Brady hand off late in the game also complicates matters. With the Bears allowing just three passing TDs on the season, let's go with the Under on 1.5 passing TDs at +110 as well as the Under on passing yards.
Nick Foles
O/U 21.5 completions
O/U 36.5 attempts
O/U 251.5 passing yards
O/U 1.5 passing TDs (Under -135)
O/U 0.5 interceptions (Over -160)
The Over on Foles' completion and attempts is juiced as of this writing, maybe an indication the market is expecting him to have to throw quite a bit in this game. And that makes sense, as the Bucs have one of the league's best rush defenses again this year, ranking second in both DVOA and yards per rush. Teams have averaged 24.3 completions, 34.3 attempts and 271 passing yards for their QBs against the Bucs this season, while Foles went 26 of 42 for 249 yards in a similarly tough matchup last week. My play out of this batch of props would be Over 21.5 completions.
More props to consider
Ronald Jones Over 69.5 rushing yards
Jones is set to handle the rushing load once again this week after getting 20 of the backfield's 24 carries in last week's win. And keep in mind that he did that in a game where the Bucs trailed considerably in the first half before turning on the jets after the break. The Bears have given up more than 100 rushing yards in three of their first four games, and it only makes sense for Bruce Arians to lean on Jones with several of his pass-catchers hurt.
Darnell Mooney Over 3.5 receptions (+120), 38.5 receiving yards
Mooney has seen more and more work as the season has progressed, playing 32% of the offensive snaps in Week 1 but 74% last week. And Foles took to the rookie, targeting him nine times, just one shy of Allen Robinson's team-leading 10. Mooney converted those looks into five catches for 52 yards despite the tough matchup, and I think we should see something similar here. If you're only playing one, getting the +120 on the receptions number is the way to go.
Devin White Over 6.5 tackles + assists (-140)
White went way over this total in the first two weeks of the season, squeaked by with seven in Week 3, then had just four last week. But he's still playing 100% of the snaps, so I think he has just a good a chance of getting back to double digits as he does of coming under this number.
Cameron Brate Any TD scorer +350, first Bucs TD scorer +1400
Brate played 21% of the snaps last week and caught a touchdown, and he should be in line for more work with O.J. Howard off to injured reserve. Take a look at the full list of players to catch a touchdown against the Bears this year and tell me if you see a pattern: T.J. Hockenson, Hayden Hurst, Mo Alie-Cox. We're getting awesome value on Brate to reach the end zone at +350 considering all the Bucs' injuries and the Bears' defensive tendencies, and I'd be willing to make a lottery ticket play on first TD for the Bucs as well.
