The Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons are set to put the finishing touches on Week 4 in the NFL when these two offensive juggernauts go head-to-head on Monday Night Football. This will be a matchup that features two of the top-scoring offenses in the entire NFL and also gives us a second-straight week where two former MVP quarterbacks are duking it out on Monday night. Aaron Rodgers has himself in the thick of those MVP discussions yet again as he's entered 2020 white-hot, completing over 66% of his throws while averaging 295.7 passing yards per game to go along with his nine touchdowns and zero interceptions. Matt Ryan hasn't been too shabby through the air, either, as he's inside the top-five quarterbacks in passing yard per game with 320.3.
While each of these quarterbacks has been the Batman to their respective offenses, there always has to be a Robin. For the Packers, that's currently running back Aaron Jones, who is continuing his ascent as one of the league's best at the position. Through the first three weeks, he is tied for first in rushing touchdowns and second in scrimmage yards and scrimmage touchdowns. For the Falcons, Calvin Ridley has emerged as one of the up-and-coming wide receivers in the game, entering Week 4 tied for the lead league in receiving touchdowns and is second in receiving yards. Needless to say, there's likely to be a lot of points scored in this one.
In this space, we'll be giving you all the betting angles that you should be keeping an eye on as this game draws near. All odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Oct. 5 | Time: 8:50 p.m. ET
Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Falcons at Packers (-6.5)
This line has been consistent all week long with the home team favored by a touchdown from wire-to-wire. On top of an undefeated start to the year, Green Bay is also 3-0 ATS and looking to become the first team to go 4-0 ATS since the Chiefs did it in 2018. For what it's worth, however, all four teams that started 3-0 ATS in 2019 failed to cover in Week 4. This year, touchdown favorites are 11-3-0 ATS (79%).
The pick: Packers -6.5. Green Bay enters this primetime matchup with the highest cover margin in the league at +11.5 points per game. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are also 4-1 ATS in their last five games in October. That said, the Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their previous five road contests. Something will need to give and I just don't trust Atlanta's ability to close so the wise choice is to jump in Rodgers' corner and look for him to stay hot even with Davante Adams sidelined for this contest.
Over/Under 57
This was predictably a high total from the jump, opening at 57.5. It went up a half-point to 58 and stood there until Wednesday, when the total began to fall. It dropped an entire point and has continued to fall over the weekend to 56.5, but has since ticked up a half-point. The Over is 6-0 between the Packers and Falcons this season. Green Bay has gone over their total by an average of 19.8 points per game (best mark in the league), while the Falcons are going over by an average of 16.3 points per game (second-highest mark in the league).
The pick: Over 57. Projecting massive Overs like this one is typically not something worth messing with, but these two teams have the perfect ingredients to make it happen. Both defenses rank in the bottom half of the league in DVOA, while each offense has shown the ability to light up the scoreboard. I expect these two teams to go toe-to-toe, trying to match the other offensively and that could last the entire game given their less-than-stellar defenses. That should result in a pile of points.
Player props
Aaron Rodgers
- O/U 25.5 completions
- O/U 289.5 passing yards
- O/U 2.5 passing touchdowns (Over +138)
- O/U 0.5 interceptions (Over +225)
- O/U 36.5 pass attempts
- O/U 9.5 rushing yards
While the +225 is a strong payout, it's hard to imagine Rodgers throwing one into the arms of the Falcons. He's yet to throw an interception this season and Atlanta's secondary doesn't exactly strike fear into opposing signal-callers. That said, they do have two interceptions already this year. The Over for passing touchdowns, in my eyes, is a bit more appealing. Rodgers has already gone over this total twice this season, including a three-touchdown performance against the Saints last week. The current totals for Rodgers' completions and pass attempts are both below his season averages.
Matt Ryan
- O/U 25.5 completions
- O/U 313.5 passing yards
- O/U 1.5 passing touchdowns (Over -200)
- O/U 0.5 interceptions (Over -180)
- O/U 42.5 pass attempts
I like Ryan's Over for completions here. He's averaging over 26 completions a game through the first three weeks and he'll likely need to throw a bunch to keep pace with Rodgers (also like the Over on his pass attempts). With Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley expected to play on Monday, Ryan's over for 1.5 passing touchdowns should also be a lock. For the season, the Falcons QB is averaging 320.3 passing yards per game. If he lives up to that number, he'll hit his Over.
Other props to consider
Russell Gage total receptions: Under 4.5 (+105). With Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley set to play, the targets share likely shrinks for Gage so it's hard to see him hauling in five or more receptions here. That said, I don't hate the Over (-115) on his 55.5 receiving yards total as defenses likely won't key on him with Jones and Ridley out there.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling total receiving yards: Over 51.5 (-115). With Allen Lazard and Davante Adams out, MVS now becomes the clear No. 1 receiver for Rodgers. Outside of a poor Week 3 showing, Valdes-Scantling has hit this Over twice this year.
Aaron Jones total rushing and receiving yards: Over 109.5 (-115). We know Jones is a stud on the ground, but he's also seen at least four targets this season from Aaron Rodgers, signifying that he's a key piece to the Packers' passing attack. In a game that will feature a ton of yards, Jones should go well over the century mark from scrimmage.
Calvin Ridley anytime touchdown scorer (+110). Ridley entered Week 4 tied for the league-lead in receiving touchdowns and should continue to be a key target for Matt Ryan when he gets into the red area.
