Nothing is much more gripping in sports than a late do-or-die drive with the game on the line. My eyes are usually glued to the screen when one play can be the difference between a win and a loss.
We've seen a ton of clutch opportunities in 2022, a year where the NFL is collectively on pace to break single-season records for close games and game-winning drives.
There aren't a ton of numbers to support clutch debates, though. Game-winning drives is a fascinating stat, but has serious limitations. It's actually possible to be credited with a game-winning drive with nothing but a kneel down. And, of course, if your defense gets stops at the end of the game, it's more likely to hold a lead, and therefore increases the likelihood of its quarterback recording a game-winning drive.
With that in mind, I introduce the Clutch QB Index. I'm not tackling the all-time clutch QB debate, which often comes down to championships in people's minds. Instead, I seek to answer who is the most clutch QB in the NFL right now based on what they've done in their careers, and what they've done lately.
Clutch QB Index Criteria
1. QB conversion rate on game-tying/go-ahead drive chances in fourth quarter/OT. (How often does a QB successfully bring his team down the field to tie or take the lead?)
2. Passer rating in fourth quarter/OT of one-possession game. (How well does a QB play in crunch time?)
Both components are split by career, playoff and 2022 performance and weighted equally.
Again, one thing these rankings don't include is championships, so you can save your Tom Brady "seven rings" argument. More on that later.
Week 13 Takeaways
Winners
WOW. Just when you think you've seen everything, Tom Brady pulls off a miracle comeback on "Monday Night Football.'' Not bad for a 45-year old. After the Buccaneers offense stalled all night Brady did what all-time greats do and locked in. He led back-to-back touchdown drives complete with the latest go-ahead touchdown pass in his career. Perhaps this best sums up his roller coaster season. Monday was the first win in his entire career down 13-plus points in the final five minutes of regulation. In Week 13 at the Browns, he suffered his first career loss when leading by seven-plus points in the final two minutes of regulation. So, in each of the last two weeks, he's experienced something he's never done in 22-year career.
Geno Smith continued his sensational season with his first fourth-quarter comeback win since 2014 as a member of the Jets. The Seahawks got the ball back down three points with under three minutes left and Smith marched them down the field for the win, culminating with a perfect strike on the run to D.K. Metcalf with three defenders in the area. What a throw by Smith, good for the first go-ahead touchdown pass in the final five minutes of a game in his career.
Joe Burrow's stock keeps rising after game-winning drives in back-to-back weeks against AFC playoff teams, the Titans and Chiefs. I wouldn't say he outplayed Patrick Mahomes in the fourth quarter Sunday, as the Travis Kelce fumble and Harrison Butker missed field goal ultimately cost Kansas City, but it was impressive how he led two methodical drives to win the game. One to take the lead, capped by a touchdown pass to Chris Evans, and another equally important drive to keep the ball out of Mahomes' hands, finished off with a key completion to Tee Higgins on third-and-11.
Losers
Daniel Jones couldn't drive the Giants down for any points on their final eight drives as the Giants settled for a tie against the Commanders. He took three drive-killing sacks in the fourth-quarter and overtime, and just missed Darius Slayton on a deep ball late in regulation that would have put the Giants near field goal range. He has 0 game-winning drives since recording five in the Giants first seven games.
Justin Fields continued his recent trend of much-improved play and some highlight reel runs but with little to show for it in the fourth quarter. He threw an interception in a one-point game late in the fourth quarter on a nice play by Jaire Alexander to jump the route. Fields did stare down his receiver a second too long in my opinion. Fields has the worst fourth-quarter passer rating in the NFL this season and Chicago has the worst record in one-score games (1-6), a definite area of growth entering 2023.
Justin Herbert made a superhuman touchdown pass on 4th-and-long to Keenan Allen to bring the Chargers within a score and had them driving for what was shaping up to be a similar comeback to last week's in Arizona. The Chargers drive stalled though and Herbert missed on an all-or-nothing deep shot on fourth down as LA lost by seven. All five of the Chargers games since their bye have come down to the wire but they've come out on top in just two of those five games.
| 1 | 
Tua Tagovailoa
Miami Dolphins QB
|
| Tua has converted on 11 of 15 career game-tying/go-ahead drive chances in the fourth quarter/OT and his career passer rating in the fourth quarter/OT of a one-score game is 120.2. Both are the best career numbers of any current starting QB. He's backed up the numbers with big plays late in victories over the Bills and Ravens this season, before coming up short against the 49ers in Week 13. It's hard to fault him though as his fourth-down pass to Mike Gesicki was initially ruled a completion before being overturned by replay. That was pretty much all she wrote as the 49ers pulled away afterward. P.S., another reason we shouldn't be too shocked to see Tua at No. 1 ... remember when he threw a walk-off touchdown pass to DeVonta Smith in the National Championship game after coming off the bench? Big moments clearly don't phase Tua. | |
| 2 | 
Deshaun Watson
Cleveland Browns QB
|
| Watson has converted on 45% of his game-tying/go-ahead drive chances in his career, fifth in the NFL. He has a sizzling 117.4 passer rating in late, close situations, second in the NFL, and it's nearly perfect (149.1) in the playoffs. He's one spot ahead of Mahomes in the rankings as Mahomes has thrown two costly INT's late this season, and Watson didn't have any clutch chances in his 2022 debut against the Texans. We'll see how he performs down the stretch. | |
| 3 | 
Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs QB
|
| Mahomes has converted on nearly 60% of his game-tying/go-ahead drive chances in both the regular season and the playoffs. His regular season rate ranks second behind Tua. His playoff rate is best in the NFL. After costly late picks in losses to the Colts and Bills this year, he bounced back in a huge way with comeback wins against the Titans and Chargers. It's hard to blame him for the loss to the Bengals as Travis Kelce's early fourth-quarter fumble was the turning point in the game, and Mahomes didn't get the ball back after Harrison Butker's missed field goal. | |
| 4 | 
Aaron Rodgers
Green Bay Packers QB
|
| Rodgers doesn't get the clutch credit quite like Brady because of his one ring, but his career conversion rates in the regular season (42%) and playoffs (56%) are both virtually identical to Brady's. He did enough on Sunday to continue his ownage of the Bears and moves up two spots in the rankings, although it was mostly Christian Watson's 46-yard touchdown run that won the game. (+2) | |
| 5 | 
Joe Burrow
Cincinnati Bengals QB
|
| "Joe Cool" has lived up to the nickname with not one, not two, but THREE game-winning drives against the Chiefs in the calendar year of 2022. He has the second-highest passer rating this season in late, close games, and the fourth-best among current starters in their careers (-1) | |
| 6 | 
Josh Allen
Buffalo Bills QB
|
| Allen ranks fifth in conversion rate on game-tying/go-ahead drives in his career (44%) but has had mixed performances in the clutch this season. He led late game-winning drives in Baltimore and Kansas City, fell short against the Jets and Vikings, followed by a masterpiece finish in Detroit. He dropped one spot in the standings here after Rodgers jumped him with Sunday's close win in Chicago.(-1) | |
| 7 | 
Lamar Jackson
Baltimore Ravens QB
|
| Jackson has the third-best conversion rate on game-tying/go-ahead drive chances in his career (51%), but isn't higher in the rankings after costly late INT's against the Giants and Bills this year. The Ravens' Week 12 loss to Jacksonville illustrates why Baltimore's blown leads this year aren't all on Jackson though. He threw a beautiful 62-yard pass to DeSean Jackson leading to the Ravens go-ahead touchdown. However, Baltimore coughed up the lead and has surprisingly allowed the second-most fourth-quarter points in the entire league in 2022. | |
| 8 | 
Kirk Cousins
Minnesota Vikings QB
|
| Cousins career ranks are average but he's delivered time-and-time again this year. He is 9-for-11 on game-tying/go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter/overtime this season, the best conversion rate of any QB in the league. His passer rating in late, close situations this year is over 100. | |
| 9 | 
Matt Ryan
Indianapolis Colts QB
|
| Ryan has one of the better clutch resumes in league history. His nickname is Matty Ice after all. You wouldn't know it after the Colts meltown in Dallas, but he's been one of clutchest QBs in the league this season too, with the third-highest passer rating in the fourth-quarter of one-score games. Still, Indianapolis has been outscored 55-3 in the fourth quarter during their three-game losing streak and Ryan looked cooked in Dallas, so I don't see him making any moves up the board anytime soon. | |
| 10 | 
Dak Prescott
Dallas Cowboys QB
|
| Dak hasn't had many clutch chances this season with Dallas averaging 40 points in their last 5 games, but he did fall short in an overtime loss in Green Bay. His career conversation rate on game-tying/go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter and OT is ninth in the league though, which is why he cracks the top 10 here. | |
| 11 | 
Derek Carr
Las Vegas Raiders QB
|
| Carr's career is full of thrilling late comebacks. His career conversion rate on game-tying/go-ahead drives (42%) ranks eighth among current starters and is actually nearly identical to Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. He hasn't been at his best this season but things are starting to turn around. He's 7-of-24 converting game-tying/go-ahead drive chances in the fourth quarter/OT in 2022 and Las Vegas is 3-6 in one-score games. Las Vegas has won back-to-back OT games and Carr helped force OT against the Seahawks with a perfectly lofted ball to Foster Moreau to tie the game. | |
| 12 | 
Tom Brady
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB
|
| TB12 moves up one spot to 12th after his second game-winning touchdown pass in the final 10 seconds this season (Rams and Saints). It's still been a down-year in 2022, especially in the clutch as he's converted on just 3-of-16 game-tying/go-ahead drive chances late, 25th in the NFL. These rankings don't take Super Bowl rings into account and seek to answer the question who is the clutchest right now, so while Brady may be the most clutch quarterback of all-time, and has the best clutch playoff resume hands down, it doesn't count for everything in these rankings.(+1) | |
| 13 | 
Jalen Hurts
Philadelphia Eagles QB
|
| Hurts leads the NFL in passer rating in the fourth quarter/OT of a one-score game this year and we know what he can do with his legs. His career numbers are still middle of the road, but he's moving up the board with a breakout season.(+1) | |
| 14 | 
Jimmy Garoppolo
San Francisco 49ers QB
|
| Garoppolo's season might be over but it would be interesting to see if he can play hero by returning from his foot injury in the postseason and leading San Francico to a Super Bowl. That would exorcise some playoff demons as the 49ers blew double-digit fourth-quarter leads to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV and Rams in the 2021 NFC Championship game. (-2) | |
| 15 | 
Matthew Stafford
Los Angeles Rams QB
|
| Stafford is always on the top of the game-winning drives lists and his career conversion rates are near league average. We saw what he could do last postseason though which has him flirting with the top 10 here. He's likely out for the season but remains in the rankings as he's the Rams starter when healthy. | |
| 16 | 
Russell Wilson
Denver Broncos QB
|
| Wilson has among the most game-winning drives in the league since entering the NFL in 2012, but ranks middle-of-the-pack in career conversion rate on game-tying/go-ahead drives. His struggles have been well documented in 2022, and that's carried over to the clutch too. Late interceptions in losses to the Colts and Titans have been particularly costly. (+2) | |
| 17 | 
Jared Goff
Detroit Lions QB
|
| All eyes were on Goff and the Lions on Thanksgiving and he sort of delivered. He threw a go-ahead touchdown pass to D.J. Chark in the fourth quarter and later put Detroit in position to kick the game-tying field goal before Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs' did their thing. If you were watching the game though, you saw he missed an opportunity to win it late. He missed an open Lions receiver on what probably would have been a touchdown if he puts the deep ball where it needed to be. At the end of the day, the Bills won because Allen made a huge throw late and Goff missed his chance. | |
| 18 | 
Andy Dalton
New Orleans Saints QB
|
| Dalton's career numbers are below average but he ranks middle-of-the-pack here after successfully converting on 3-6 game-tying/go-ahead drive chances in the fourth-quarter/OT this year. He looked like he was finally in position to win a primetime game too on Monday but his steady performance was overshadowed by Tom Brady's historic comeback.(+2) | |
| 19 | 
Ryan Tannehill
Tennessee Titans QB
|
| Tannehill's career ranks are near league average but he's 0-5 in the playoffs with a chance to tie or take the lead late, including last year's playoff loss to the Bengals. (-3) | |
| 20 | 
Geno Smith
Seattle Seahawks QB
|
| Smith delivered with a huge game-winning drive against the Rams in Week 13, one that improved the Seahawks to 7-5 and nipping at the 49ers heels in the NFC West. He's top 10 in the league this season in late, close situations, but needs more opportunities to improve upon his below average career numbers in crunch time.(+2) | |
| 21 | 
Daniel Jones
New York Giants QB
|
| Jones is the reason you can't use GW drives alone to determine a player's clutch performance. Earlier this year he set a record for the most GW drives (five) through seven games of a season in NFL history, but his passer rating is 65.0 in the fourth quarter of one-score games this year. He hasn't made challenging throws in the clutch this season. His 10 completions on five GW drives have traveled a grand total of 25 air yards. | |
| 22 | 
Justin Herbert
Los Angeles Chargers QB
|
| The Chargers are 2-3 since their bye, with all five games going down to the wire. Too often they've fallen short this season but it's hard to blame Herbert who has been without his best offensive lineman and two best wide receivers for most of the season. His career conversion rate (41%) late in games is 10th in the NFL but he's 18th this season and his passer rating in the fourth quarter/OT of a one-score game is just 77.5 in 2022, 16th in the league.(-3) | |
| 23 | 
Marcus Mariota
Atlanta Falcons QB
|
| Mariota's career conversion rate (40%) on game-tying/go-ahead drive chances ranks 16th among current starters and once upon a time he led a miraculous playoff comeback win in Kansas City. He's running out of magic though in 2022 with back-to-back close losses to the Commanders and Steelers. | |
| 24 | 
Kyler Murray
Arizona Cardinals QB
|
| Murray and the Cardinals went three-and-out on three straight drives before the Chargers game-winning score in Week 12. He also mismanaged the end of the loss to the Eagles this year and ranks 25th in career conversion rate on game-tying/go-ahead drive chances (32%). Not what you're looking for with the type of contract he's playing on.(+3) | |
| 25 | 
Trevor Lawrence
Jacksonville Jaguars QB
|
| Lawrence pulled off a thrilling win against the Ravens in Week 12, the best finish of his career. He played three straight great games before Sunday's blowout loss in Detroit. | |
| 26 | 
Mac Jones
New England Patriots QB
|
| Jones is 0-for-9 on game-tying/go-ahead drive opportunities in the fourth quarter and overtime this year, the worst 0-fer in the NFL. He didn't get the Patriots offense moving late against the Jets and Vikings recently, and threw a bad, late interception off his back foot against the Ravens earlier this year. (+2) | |
| 27 | 
Taylor Heinicke
Washington Commanders QB
|
| Heinicke is keeping the Commanders' starting QB job with Carson Wentz healthy enough to return. He's had his moments in the clutch this year, like an improbable comeback against the Colts, but his fourth-quarter interception into double coverage against the Eagles could have easily cost Washington the game. The Commanders also tied the Giants on Sunday. Enough said. He has the fourth-worst career conversion rate (26%) on game-tying/go-ahead drive chances late in games. (-1) | |
| 28 | 
Davis Mills
Houston Texans QB
|
| Mills reclaims the Texans starting QB job after two dreadful starts by Kyle Allen so he's back in the mix here. He's 1-for-17 in his career and 1-for-13 this season in converting game-tying/go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter and overtime. His career passer rating in late, close situations is 21st among current starters, or else he'd be at the very bottom of these rankings. | |
| 29 | 
Sam Darnold
Carolina Panthers QB
|
| Darnold has the second-worst passer rating in late, close games (54.8) for his career among current starters, better than only rookie Kenny Pickett. | |
| 30 | 
Justin Fields
Chicago Bears QB
|
| He may be emerging as a star quarterback, but has yet to make an impact in the clutch. The Bears are 5-19 on game-tying/go-ahead drive conversions in the fourth quarter and overtime this year. They've lost six straight games that have been decided by one possession. Fields has the worst passer rating and most interceptions in the fourth quarter this season | |
| 31 | 
Mike White
New York Jets QB
|
| The Jets were knocking on the door time-and-time again in Minnesota but couldn't get over the hump as they had three game-tying/go-ahead drive chances but 0 conversions on Sunday. | |
| 32 | 
Kenny Pickett
Pittsburgh Steelers QB
|
| Pickett remains in last place in our rankings even after leading a go-ahead touchdown drive on Monday Night Football against the Colts. He's only converted on 2 of 9 chances to tie or take the lead late this year and has a 48.1 passer rating in late, close games, worst in the league. He gets a taste of his first Ravens-Steelers rivalry game in Week 14. Pickett could have a chance to rescue the Steelers with how those games usually go down to the wire. | |
