For years, the New England Patriots have owned the New York Jets. Ever since Bill Belichick spurned the Jets to take the top job in New England, the two franchises have seen their fortunes diverge.
This season's Jets might be the worst the Belichick-led Patriots have ever faced, but of course, this year's Patriots don't really resemble the prior versions, either. The Pats enter "Monday Night Football'' in third place in the AFC East, a very unusual spot for them to be this deep into the season. The Jets are in a rather familiar spot in the basement of the division, and don't appear to be on the verge of climbing out anytime soon.
Naturally, the Schedule Gods have decided that these two teams should play on "Monday Night Football.'' Because we must, let's break down the matchup.
How to watch
Date: Monday, Nov. 9 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
When the Patriots have the ball
Through the first three weeks of the season, the Patriots offense actually looked quite good. The Pats beat up on what now looks like a very good Dolphins defense way back in Week 1, complementing the Cam Newton-led rushing attack that was eating up chunks of yardage with a short, quick passing game. In Week 2, Newton threw for 397 yards against the Seahawks, and was also damn near unstoppable as a short yardage rusher. They stumbled a bit early in Week 3, but eventually got going by rotating through Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead, and J.J. Taylor out of the backfield.
Then Newton contracted COVID-19. And it's been pretty much all downhill for the offense ever since. Correlation doesn't necessarily imply causation, but there is, definitely, a clear correlation. In Weeks 1 through 3, the Pats averaged 409 yards and 29 points per game. In Weeks 4 through 8, those averages have dropped to 308.8 yards and 12.3 points per game. They've faced some better defenses, sure, but with the exception of perhaps last week against the Bills, the offense has just been bad. And that's been true whether it was Bryan Hoyer and/or Jarrett Stidham under center, or Newton.
It doesn't help that they're dealing with injuries to key pieces like Julian Edelman, N'Keal Harry, and Michel. Of course, it also doesn't help that those guys are key pieces, considering their lack of upside and explosive play capability. Without them, the Pats are relying on Jakobi Meyers and Damiere Byrd at receiver, and the combination of Burkhead, James White, and Damien Harris in the backfield.
The Patriots are at something resembling their best when they can get their run game going, but stopping the run is the one single thing the Jets do well on either side of the ball. They rank 10th in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA on the season. However, they traded run-stuffing defensive tackle Steve McClendon to the Buccaneers, and fellow defensive lineman Quinnen Williams is expected to miss this game with a hamstring injury. So, perhaps New England can get the ground attack going with Newton and Harris, while mixing in Burkhead and White on occasion, and sneaking White out of the backfield to work against New York's linebackers in open space.
Teams have experienced a ridiculous amount of success throwing the ball against New York's secondary, but the current version of the Patriots might be the team least set up to take that tact against the Jets, assuming that the actual Jets wouldn't be able to play against themselves. There just aren't enough threats on the outside, the tight ends pose almost no threat at all, and Newton has simply been inaccurate and hurried in recent weeks. That said, they are playing the Jets. So, all of that could easily change on Monday night.
When the Jets have the ball
In theory, the Jets offense does exist, but I have seen very little evidence to prove it. New York ranks last in yards, last in points, last in Football Outsiders' DVOA (29th in rush DVOA and 32nd in pass DVOA), and last in being worthy of of your, my, or anyone else's attention. It is best to simply acknowledge that the Jets will -- solely due to the way football's rules are written -- occasionally touch the ball during this game, but the likelihood of them doing anything meaningful with those possessions is vanishingly low.
Prediction: Patriots 23, Jets 6
