The New England Patriots are looking for a minor Christmas Eve miracle on Sunday when they visit Empower Field at Mile High to face the Denver Broncos. The Patriots (3-11) are on the verge of having their worst season since owner Robert Kraft took over the team in 1994. They also lost 11 games in 2000, Bill Belichick's first season as coach. Their 27-17 home loss to the Chiefs last week was the sixth in their past seven games. Now they face a hungry Broncos team that is desperate to make the playoffs. Denver (7-7) lost to the Lions 42-17 in Week 15 but has won six of its past eight after starting 1-5.
Sunday night's kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET at Denver's Empower Field at Mile High. Denver is a seven-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Broncos odds, while the over/under is 37. Before making any Broncos vs. Patriots picks, you need to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 16 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 178-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 32-21 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has simulated Patriots vs. Broncos 10,000 times and just revealed its coveted NFL picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting trends for Broncos vs. Patriots:
- Patriots vs. Broncos spread: Denver -7
- Patriots vs. Broncos over/under: 37 points
- Patriots vs. Broncos money line: New England +269, Denver -343
- NE: Patriots are 11-12-1 ATS on the road over the past three seasons
- DEN: Broncos are 6-11 ATS as home favorites since the 2021 season
- Patriots vs. Broncos picks: See picks at SportsLine
- Patriots vs. Broncos streaming: fubo (try for free)
Why the Broncos can cover
Denver had a rough week against the Lions, but that was on the road, and New England is far from a playoff-caliber team. The Patriots average just 13.3 points per game and have scored less than 20 in 11 of their 14 games. Russell Wilson threw for more than 220 yards for a second straight game last week and has 24 touchdown passes and eight interceptions. The Patriots are 29th in the NFL in both takeaways (14) and sacks (29) and allow 21.4 points per game (16th).
Wilson is 3-0 in his career regular-season matchups with the Patriots, throwing 11 TD passes and one interception. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy combined for 145 receiving yards against the Lions, and Sutton has 770 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. The Broncos defense was exploited by a talented Lions team, but the unit allowed just 15.6 points per game from Weeks 7-14. The Broncos were plus-10 in turnover margin over that span, the best in the NFL. See who to back at SportsLine.
Why the Patriots can cover
New England still has Belichick calling the shots, and while the defense hasn't been up to its typical standard, it won't be an easy night for Denver. The Patriots are eighth in the league in overall defense, allowing 308 yards per game, and are particularly stout against the run. Opponents are averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, the lowest in the NFL, and 85 rushing yards per game (second).
On the other hand, Denver has one of the worst defenses in the league, and Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe has the potential to have big games. The second-year pro threw for 224 yards and three touchdowns to lead a 21-18 victory against the Steelers two weeks ago. He had 141 yards in the first half last week, but the tough Chiefs defense adjusted. Now he'll face a defense that ranks 31st in the league (382.4 yards per game) and gives up 25.1 points per game (30th). See who to back at SportsLine.
How to make Patriots vs. Broncos picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over the total, projecting 36 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model's NFL picks and analysis at SportsLine.
So who wins Patriots vs. Broncos on Christmas Eve, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Broncos vs. Patriots spread to back, all from the model on a 178-129 roll on top-rated NFL picks, and find out.
