It'll be the Patriots and Vikings who'll cap off our Thanksgiving tripleheader on Thursday night. These two clubs were on different sides of the scoreboard last Sunday in Week 11, but both offenses struggled and managed just a field goal apiece. For the Patriots, they were able to get the win thanks to a last-second punt return for a touchdown over the Jets. Minnesota wasn't so fortunate and ran into a buzz saw that was the Cowboys defense that sacked Kirk Cousins seven times. Meanwhile, the Dallas offense exploded for 40 points. With that in mind, the Vikings will certainly be looking to quickly erase that defeat with a win at home on Thanksgiving, while New England further makes its push for a playoff spot in the AFC.
In terms of a side story to keep an eye on, it's worth highlighting that this will be Kevin O'Connell's first game as a head coach against Bill Belichick. O'Connell was drafted by Belichick and the Patriots in the third round of the 2008 NFL Draft.
Before we dive even deeper into this matchup, here's how you can watch the holiday finale.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Thursday, Nov. 24 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: U.S. Bank Stadium (Minneapolis)
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Vikings -2.5, O/U 42.5
When the Vikings have the ball
The biggest challenge that the Vikings will face on Thursday is keeping Kirk Cousins upright. The quarterback is just a few days removed from a game against Dallas where he was sacked a career-high seven times, hit 13 times, and was blitzed on 40% of his dropbacks (season-high). We know he'll be without his starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who suffered a concussion against Dallas on Sunday and has already been ruled out by O'Connell.
While the Cowboys defense is arguably the top unit in the NFL, New England's defense is right there in that conversation as well and has a knack for getting after the quarterback. The Patriots rank second in the NFL in pressures and boast defensive end Matt Judon, who currently leads the NFL in sacks with 13. When Cousins can get the ball off, he'll face another challenge. The Patriots are allowing the lowest completion percentage (56%) in the league entering Week 12 and that is largely thanks to Jack Jones and Jonathan Jones, who grade inside Pro Football Focuses top-10 cornerbacks this season.
What has given the Patriots fits this season has been mobile quarterbacks, which is something Cousins is not. That said, if he is able to extend plays even just a little bit by moving around in the pocket that could be enough for things to break down.
Where the Vikings may be able to attack this New England defense is on the ground with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison. The Patriots are hardly bad against the run, but teams have had more success running on them than passing. They are giving up 4.5 yards per carry entering Thanksgiving.
When the Patriots have the ball
While New England's defense is among the best in the league, the offense is a different story entirely. Mac Jones and Co. rank 26th in the NFL in offensive DVOA and are coming off a game against New York where they managed just three points.
Similar to Cousins, protection has been one of the biggest issues for the Patriots. Jones has had an average of 2.3 seconds to throw the football this season and is pressured on 22.5% of his dropbacks, both rank among the bottom third in the league. According to Adjusted Sack Rate, New England's offensive line ranks fourth-worst in the NFL. Minnesota has 85 pressures on the year and ranks in the bottom half of the league in blitz rate, but they can get after the quarterback, ranking sixth in the NFL in hurries.
The Patriots' bread and butter offensively has been utilizing Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris out of the backfield. While those two backs have performed well, New England should look to expand upon that and utilize play action as an extension of their ground attack. Jones has just 29 play-action pass attempts this season (30th among all quarterbacks). However, his 8.82 yards per attempt off play-action are better than Cousins (6.04) and Justin Herbert (7.65), who both rank inside the top five in the NFL in play-action attempts and passing yards off play-action.
That may help New England find success in the red area as well. Scoring in the red zone has been among the main issues for Patriots as well. They are scoring touchdowns on just 42.8% of their red zone trips, which ranks 31st in the NFL and only above the Denver Broncos. Unless they make some changes to their approach, it could continue to be a rough go of it on the offensive side of the ball, and will need to continue to win ugly.
Prediction: Vikings 24, Patriots 17
