Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
It has now been five days since the Super Bowl, which means things are likely going to start slowing down around here for the next few weeks. JUST KIDDING, THERE'S NO SLOW TIME ON THE NFL CALENDAR. Now that the Super Bowl is over, we'll be going straight into the combine and then into free agency and then into the draft and then into OTAs and then the schedule release and then maybe we'll get a two-and-a-half day break from news in June, but I doubt it.
With NFL free agency now less than a month away, we'll be focusing on that a lot more over the next few days and we'll be starting that today with a look at the top 25 free agents on the offensive side of the ball. We'll also take a look at the trend that Jalen Hurts needs to buck if he wants to get the Eagles back to the Super Bowl. Plus, we'll be taking a look at five teams that will likely be taking a step back in 2023.
Remember, if you're hanging out with family and/or friends this weekend, you should tell them all to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. Alright, let's get to the rundown.
1. Today's show: Previewing offseason storylines
For the Friday episode of the Pick Six Podcast, CBS went all out and got the two handsomest men in the world to host: Me and Ryan Wilson. Just kidding, we're not that handsome. But anyway, with the offseason now in full swing, Wilson and I decided to preview some of the biggest storylines that will likely come up over the next month.
Here are two of the storylines we talked about during the podcast:
- Will Lamar Jackson get traded? It's definitely possible that Jackson has played his final down in Baltimore, but Wilson and I both think he'll be with the Ravens for at least one more year. If the two sides can't get a long-term deal done this offseason, Baltimore can simply hit Jackson with the franchise tag, which would actually save them a lot of money. The tag would pay Jackson $32.4 million for one year, which would be a substantial saving because if the Ravens give him a contract extension, they'll likely be paying him upwards of $50 million per year.
- Where will Derek Carr land? With the Raiders QB now a free agent, Carr can sign anywhere he wants and he can do that right now (He doesn't have to wait until free agency starts on March 15). If I'm Carr, I'm calling up the Carolina Panthers and doing everything I can to play for Frank Reich. I think that's the best fit because the Panthers play in a very weak division and because Carolina feels like its a QB away from being a top contender for the division title. As for Wilson, he mentioned the Jets and Saints as spots where he'd look to end up if he were Carr.
You can hear everything else we talked about on the podcast by clicking here. You can also watch today's show on YouTube here.
2. Top 25 offensive free agents: Quarterbacks dominate the list
In less than a month, things should be getting crazy around the NFL and that's because the league's free agency period will be kicking off on March 15. The first 24 hours of free agency are usually pretty wild and that's because that time frame is usually when we see the biggest names go off the board. There should be some huge names this year since there could be several free agent quarterbacks who sign in that span.
So who are the biggest names this year? Glad you asked.
Our Jared Dubin ranked the top 25 offensive free agents. His list includes every player set to become a free agent, even players like Lamar Jackson, who could end up getting hit with the franchise tag.
With that in mind, let's take a look at Dubin's top 10 (We'll list the player plus the team they played for last season). One thing you'll notice about the top 10 is that there are a lot of quarterbacks.
1. QB Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
2. QB Daniel Jones (Giants)
3. QB Derek Carr (Raiders)
4. QB Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers)
5. QB Geno Smith (Seahawks)
6. OG Ben Powers (Ravens)
7. OT Orlando Browns (Chiefs)
8. OT Jawaan Taylor (Jaguars)
9. RB Josh Jacobs (Raiders)
10. OT Terence Steele (Cowboys)
If you want to see Dubin's entire top 25 rankings, then be sure to click here. We'll have a ranking of the top 25 defensive free agents coming on Monday.
3. Five teams that could take a step back in 2023
One of the biggest shockers of the 2022 season was the downfall of the Rams. After a 12-5 season in 2021 that ended with a Super Bowl win, the Rams fell apart in 2022, going just 5-12.
Every year, there are multiple teams that fall off a cliff after a somewhat successful season, and our Jeff Kerr recently tried to pinpoint which teams might take a tumble in 2023. Here are five teams that Jeff thinks will take a step back in 2023:
1. Vikings (2022 record: 13-4)
2. Titans (7-10)
3. Seahawks (9-8)
4. Buccaneers (8-9)
5. Raiders (6-11)
The Titans play in the easiest division in football, so I don't think they'll take a huge step back next year, especially if they make an upgrade at quarterback. I also have a tough time seeing the Raiders taking a step back since they would only have to win seven games to improve upon the 2022 season. However, I definitely agree with Kerr on the other three teams, especially the Vikings. After winning 12 games by one score in 2022, I'm pretty sure the law of averages says they have to regress next year. Of course, even if they win three fewer games, a 10-7 mark should still get them into the playoffs.
Anyway, to see Kerr's full explanation for why each team made the list, be sure to click here.
4. Eagles will have to buck this trend if they want to get back to the Super Bowl with Jalen Hurts
If you're an Eagles fan, your week has already been bad enough due to the Super Bowl loss, but now I'm about to make things even worse by passing along a somewhat alarming stat that our research team found this week: Of the last 17 quarterbacks to lose in their Super Bowl debut, NONE of them made it back to the big game in their career.
This list dates all the way back to the 1994 season when Stan Humphries and the Chargers lost to the 49ers in Super Bowl XXIX. Since then, there have been 16 more quarterbacks to lose their Super Bowl debut and none of them have made it back to the big game.
Here's the list of the past 17 quarterbacks who lost their Super Bowl debut and never made it back to the big game:
Super Bowl XXIX: Stan Humphries (Chargers)
Super Bowl XXX: Neil O'Donnell (Steelers)
Super Bowl XXXI: Drew Bledsoe (Patriots) -- Bledsoe did return as a backup, but that doesn't count
Super Bowl XXXIII: Chris Chandler (Falcons)
Super Bowl XXIV: Steve McNair (Titans)
Super Bowl XXXV: Kerry Collins (Giants)
Super Bowl XXXVII: Rich Gannon (Raiders)
Super Bowl XXXVIII: Jake Delhomme (Panthers)
Super Bowl XXXIX: Donovan McNabb (Eagles)
Super Bowl XL: Matt Hasselbeck (Seahawks)
Super Bowl XLI: Rex Grossman (Bears)
Super Bowl XLVII: Colin Kaepernick (49ers)
Super Bowl 50: Cam Newton (Panthers)
Super Bowl LI: Matt Ryan (Falcons)
Super Bowl LIII: Jared Goff (Rams)
Super Bowl LIV: Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers)
Super Bowl LVI: Joe Burrow (Bengals)
Although this list has taken down 17 quarterbacks over the past 30 years, there have been quarterbacks who HAVE made it back to the big game after losing their initial Super Bowl start. The last one to do it was Jim Kelly, who took the Bills to THREE STRAIGHT Super Bowls after losing his debut in Super Bowl XXV.
Also, Burrow, Garoppolo and Kaepernick each came close to ending the streak, but all three guys ended up falling one game short of a possible Super Bowl return (Kaepernick's 49ers lost the NFC title game in 2013 while Garoppolo's 49ers lost the NFC Championship in 2021 followed by Burrow's Bengals losing in the 2022 AFC title game).
Basically, if Hurts can get the Eagles back to the Super Bowl, he'd be making history, but Eagles fans probably shouldn't count on it based on this stat.
5. 2023 NFL Draft order is finally set
With the Super Bowl over, that means the order for the 2023 NFL Draft is finally set. Although the Eagles lost the Super Bowl, they'll have a chance to win the draft and that's because they have two first-round picks this year. Not only do they have the 31st overall pick (which will actually be the 30th pick since the Dolphins have to forfeit their first-round pick), but the Eagles are also getting the 10th overall pick from the Saints.
As for the Chiefs, they'll be getting the 32nd overall pick, but at this point, they're probably used to picking that low. Since 2018, the Chiefs have only made one pick above 30th overall and barring a trade, that won't be changing this year.
With that in mind, here is the official order for the 2023 NFL Draft:
1. Bears (3-14)
2. Texans (3-13-1)
3. Cardinals (4-13)
4. Colts (4-12-1)
5. Seahawks (9-8) (via 5-12 Broncos)
6. Lions (8-9) (via 5-12 Rams)
7. Raiders (6-11)
8. Falcons (7-10)
9. Panthers (7-10)
10. Eagles (14-3) (via 7-10 Saints)
11. Titans (7-10)
12. Texans (3-13-1) (via 7-10 Browns)
13. Jets (7-10)
14. Patriots (8-9)
15. Packers (8-9)
16. Commanders (8-8-1)
17. Steelers (9-8)
18. Lions (9-8)
19. Buccaneers (8-9)
20. Seahawks (9-8)
21. FORFEITED BY DOLPHINS for Tom Brady tampering
22. Chargers (10-7)
23. Ravens (10-7)
24. Vikings (13-4)
25. Jaguars (9-8)
26. Giants (9-7-1)
27. Cowboys (12-5)
28. Bills (13-3)
29. Bengals (12-4)
30. Broncos (via 13-4 49ers)
31. Eagles (14-3)
32. Chiefs (14-3)
Note: This order would be a lot less confusing if I only included 31 picks, but the official NFL order includes the Dolphins at 21 while also noting that Miami will be forfeiting the pick due to tampering with Tom Brady. It's almost like the NFL is trying to publicly shame the Dolphins.
Anyway, the craziest part about the Chiefs winning the Lombardi Trophy is that not only did Kansas City get a Super Bowl parade this year, but K.C. will ALSO be hosting the 2023 NFL Draft, which is scheduled to take place from April 27-29. If you want to know what the draft set up is going to look like in Kansas City, then be sure to head here.
If you don't care what the draft set up looks like, but you want to know who each team is going to draft, then be sure to click here so you can check out the latest mock from CBSSports.com's draft guru, Josh Edwards.
6. Rapid-fire roundup: Aaron Jones staying in Green Bay, Eric Bieniemy likely leaving Kansas City
It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you, and that roundup involves a lot of coordinator firings.
- Aaron Jones staying with Packers. Over the past few weeks, there was some speculation that the Packers might dump Aaron Jones to save some money, but that won't he happening. According to ESPN.com, Jones took a pay cut from $16 million down to $11 million, and that cut was enough to convince the Packers to keep him. Jones is under contract with the Packers through the 2024 season.
- Bieniemy likely headed to Washington. The Commanders have spent the past two days wining and dining Eric Bieniemy and it appears he's on the cusp of signing a deal to become the team's new offensive coordinator (He might actually be signed by the time you read this). Bieniemy has been the Chiefs' OC since 2018 and after not landing a single head-coaching job, it seems that he's decided it's time for a change of scenery. With Bieniemy out, Matt Nagy is the lead candidate to replace him in Kansas City, according to NFL.com.
- Alvin Kamara indicted on two criminal charges. Twelve months after being arrested for an incident in Las Vegas, the Saints running back has now been indicted in that same case. Kamara is facing charges of battery resulting in substantial bodily harm and conspiracy to commit battery for the beating of Darnell Greene. If Kamara doesn't reach some sort of plea deal, that mean's he'll soon be going to trial. His next court date is March 2 (You can read about his legal situation here).
- Travis Kelce set to host 'SNL.' You might want to go ahead and set your DVR to record "Saturday Night Live" on March 4 and that's because Travis Kelce will be hosting the episode. Kelce will be the first NFL player to host the show in more than two years. Kelce will be hosting with musical guest Kelsea Ballerini.
- Vance Joseph free to interview with Eagles and Broncos. The Cardinals defensive coordinator has been released from his contract, which means he's now free to coach with any team in 2023. Although Joseph is currently unemployed, he likely won't be for long as both the Eagles and Broncos are interested in interviewing him for their open DC jobs.
- Patrick Mahomes appeared to give away the Lombardi Trophy to a fan. The Chiefs QB appeared to give the Lombardi Trophy away to a fan in a clip that went viral on yesterday, but after doing some investigative work, I can tell you that's not what actually happened. If you want to know how a replica trophy ended up in Mahomes' hands, you can read all the details here.
