Two teams looking to rebound from disappointing starts meet up on Thursday Night Football in Foxborough at 8:20 p.m. ET, when the New England Patriots host the Indianapolis Colts. After a rare two-game losing streak, the Patriots served notice they were back with a resounding 38-7 victory over the then-undefeated Miami Dolphins last week. Meanwhile, gutsy calls by Frank Reich failed to pay off Sunday and the Colts took the overtime loss against the Texans. New England opened as a 7.5-point home favorite and is laying 10 in the latest Patriots vs. Colts odds. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas expects to be scored, has plummeted precipitously from 55.5 to 50.5, with the health of several key playmakers in question.
SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
It went a blistering 11-4 on its Week 4 picks straight up and nailed three of its four top-rated spread selections, including Kansas City (-3.5) over Denver on Monday night. It's now 10-3 on top-rated picks this season, extending its run to 58-37.
The computer has now simulated Indianapolis vs. New England 10,000 times to produce strong against-the-spread and over-under picks. We can tell you it's leaning toward the under, but its bold point-spread pick that hits in over 50 percent of simulations can be found only at SportsLine.
The model knows that while Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is looking like a go despite an ankle injury that limited him in practice on Wednesday, how effective he'll be remains to be seen. If he's hobbled in any way, quarterback Tom Brady can turn to Josh Gordon, who's making his second start for New England, and Julian Edelman, who's returning from a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing drugs. Edelman also missed the entire 2017 season with a torn ACL suffered in the third preseason game.
Between 2013 and 2016, Edelman topped 90 receptions three times and scored 20 touchdowns over that span. He's a trusted weapon for Brady, having played with the franchise quarterback since 2009. Meanwhile, Gordon made his Patriots debut last week and had two catches for 32 yards. His role is almost certain to expand on Thursday Night Football.
Just because the Patriots have plenty of weapons doesn't mean they'll cover a double-digit spread on Thursday Night Football.
With each passing week, Colts quarterback Andrew Luck looks more confident in the pocket. Against the Texans, he had one of the strongest games of his career, completing 40 of 62 passes for 464 yards and four touchdowns. For the season, he has racked up over 1,100 yards and nine scores.
Even with T.Y. Hilton looking iffy for Thursday, the Colts' offensive attack featured a new weapon last Sunday, as running back Nyheim Hines broke out. He had nine receptions and scored twice, giving the Colts a much-needed play-maker. Hines' burst will be key to the Colts keeping up with New England, especially if Hilton is sidelined.
So, which side of the Colts vs. Patriots spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over, all from the incredible computer model that has returned over $4,000 to $100 bettors.
