The Miami Dolphins will try to spring the upset when they take on the Baltimore Ravens in an AFC showdown on Thursday Night Football. The Ravens (6-2), who have a one-game lead over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North standings, have won six of their last seven games. The Dolphins (2-7), who are fourth in the AFC East, are coming off their first win in eight tries. Baltimore leads the all-time regular-season series 8-6.

Kickoff from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Baltimore is an 8.5-point favorite in the latest Ravens vs. Dolphins odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is 46. Before you make any Ravens vs. Dolphins bets or predictions, make sure you check out what SportsLine NFL expert Mike Tierney has to say.

A national sportswriter whose work appears in The New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. He's used his experience to crush the NFL, going 187-147 against the spread the past three seasons. In addition, Tierney is an outstanding 26-13-1 on his last 40 against the spread picks involving the Ravens. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Tierney has zoned in on Ravens vs. Dolphins. You can head to SportsLine to see his picks. Here are the NFL lines and trends for Ravens vs. Dolphins:

  • Dolphins vs. Ravens spread: Baltimore -8.5
  • Dolphins vs. Ravens over-under: 46 points
  • Dolphins vs. Ravens money line: Baltimore -430, Miami +330
  • BAL: Ravens are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six Thursday games
  • MIA: Dolphins are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games in November

Why the Ravens can cover

Baltimore's defense has a number of stalwarts who are coming off solid efforts in last Sunday's overtime win over the Minnesota Vikings. Cornerback Marlon Humphrey had a season-high two pass breakups last week and is looking for his sixth game in a row with a pass breakup. He had two of them and an interception in the last meeting against Miami.

Linebacker Josh Bynes led the Ravens with a season-high 11 tackles in Week 9. He is looking for his fourth game in a row with at least six tackles and a tackle for loss. For the season, Bynes has registered 27 tackles, including 19 solo, with four tackles for loss. He also has two pass breakups.

Why the Dolphins can cover

Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is reportedly only available on an emergency basis, so Jacoby Brissett will get the start. Brissett has played in seven games this season and completed 130-of-202 passes (64.4 percent) for 1,127 yards and five touchdowns. He has been intercepted four times. In last Sunday's win over the Houston Texans, Brissett completed 26-of-43 passes (60.5 percent) for 244 yards and one score. His best game was at Tampa Bay on Oct. 10, when he completed 27-of-39 passes (69.2 percent) for 275 yards and two touchdowns.

Rookie wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is off to a fast start to his career. He leads the Dolphins with 56 receptions for 496 yards (8.9 average) and three touchdowns. He has two explosive plays of 20 yards or more and 229 yards after the catch. He has also converted 31 first downs. Last Sunday, he caught eight passes for 83 yards. Waddle has had two games with 10-plus receptions, including a 12-catch, 58-yard performance at Las Vegas on Sept. 26.

How to make Dolphins vs. Ravens picks

Tierney has analyzed this matchup and while we can tell you he's leaning under the total, he has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing what it is, and who to back, at SportsLine.

So who wins Ravens vs. Dolphins on Thursday Night Football? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see Tierney's Ravens vs. Dolphins picks, all from the NFL expert who's 26-13 on picks involving Baltimore, and find out.