Two AFC teams square off in New Jersey this weekend, as Mike Vrabel takes his Tennessee Titans to MetLife Stadium to take on rookie quarterback Zach Wilson and the New York Jets. The Titans are coming off a 25-16 win over the Indianapolis Colts -- their second straight victory -- while the Jets were blanked by the Denver Broncos last Sunday 26-0.
The Titans may be the easy favorites in this matchup against a winless Jets team, but they will be without several important players on Sunday. Star pass rusher Bud Dupree won't suit up, and neither will starting receivers Julio Jones and A.J. Brown. Could Wilson earn his first NFL victory this Sunday?
The Titans lead the all-time series 24-19-1, but the Jets have won two out of the past three meetings. Below, we will break down this matchup from a gambling perspective and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here's how you can watch Sunday's matchup.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
This line has been constantly falling. It reopened at TEN -7.5 on Sunday, fell to TEN -7 on Thursday and then all the way to TEN -6 by Friday afternoon.
The pick: Titans -6. This game was actually one of my top five picks of the week. Here's my thought process:
"Wilson's struggles aren't all his fault. He's been pressured on 47 percent of his dropbacks -- which ranks third-most in the league -- and has been sacked more than any other quarterback (15 times). The Jets are 0-3 against the spread and just lost their best defender in Marcus Maye for a few weeks due to an ankle injury. Nothing is going right for the Jets, as they have scored just six points over the last two games. Now, they host a Titans team that has won two straight and has a defense that's getting better.
"It's worth noting that the Titans won't have starting wide receivers Julio Jones or A.J. Brown this weekend. I really don't care. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chester Rogers were the receivers who caught touchdowns last weekend and they looked fine. Tennessee still has Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry. I say they cover. The Jets are 6-13 against the spread since the start of last season and 18-32-1 against the spread since the start of 2018. Both are worst in the NFL."
The total reopened at 46 on Sunday, and then fell to 44.5 on Wednesday.
The pick: Under 44.5. I feel like I don't have much of a choice but to lean Under on this game. The Jets have scored 20 points all season and then the Titans are dealing with injuries to some of their best playmakers on offense. This game could be a gross, low-scoring affair.
Ryan Tannehill passing yards: Over 204.5 (-115). I'm not expecting Tannehill to go for 400 yards on Sunday or anything, but this line seems too low. Tannehill did throw for only 197 yards last week against the Colts, but also threw two picks. That won't happen against the Jets. Even with backups starting at receiver, I think Tannehill surpasses this number.
Corey Davis receptions: Over 3.5 (-160). This prop is juicy but I think it will hit. There are three reasons why: Fellow wideouts Elijah Moore and Jeff Smith are out while Jamison Crowder is questionable, Davis has been Wilson's most-targeted wideout and he has surpassed this total in two out of three games played. He's also gearing up for a revenge contest against his former team.
Derrick Henry receptions: Over 2.5 (-105). Henry has covered this Over in each game this season and I have bet it each game this season.
Craving even more NFL coverage focusing on previews, recaps, news and analysis? Listen below and follow the Pick Six podcast for a daily dose of everything you need to follow pro football.