Hello everyone, and happy Thursday. It's officially time for preseason football. Yes, the Hall of Fame Game already happened, but now the full slate is upon us (more on that below). John Breech is taking the day off to study the Bengals' backup quarterbacks (or something like that), but you've got me, Cody Benjamin, right here to deliver all the latest.
This is the Pick Six Newsletter. Now let's get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you're signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don't want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.)
We've got preseason bets and predictions, an inside look at camp holdouts, and much more:
1. Today's show: Four downs of 2023 NFL bets
Preseason football is here. Which means the real games are just around the corner. SportsLine's Alex Selesnick joined Katie Mox and Will Brinson on a recent edition of "Pick Six NFL Podcast" to provide "four downs" of bets for this season. Some highlights:
- Selesnick says he's largely avoiding playing any Overs on final records going into 2023, citing the uncertainty of injuries with big-name players like Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow, who may or may not be ready for Week 1.
- Brinson is taking the Under on 1,300 receiving yards for Dolphins wideout Tyreek Hill, acknowledging the receiver is an "insanely freakish athlete" but questioning other variables in Miami's offense, including Tua Tagovailoa's health.
- Selesnick likes the Buccaneers to score the fewest points of any team this year, calling them a frontrunner for next year's first overall pick thanks to questions at QB and a defense that could invite low-scoring affairs.
Catch the full episode (and subscribe for all kinds of daily NFL talk) right here.
2. Agent's Take: Which big-name holdouts will prevail?
Cap expert Joel Corry knows a thing or two about contract negotiations from his days as an NFL agent. So which of the current big-name holdouts are most likely to result in new deals, in his eyes? And which ones are destined to get uglier? Here are a few nuggets from Corry's breakdown:
- Deals for Nick Bosa and Chris Jones seem inevitable. In the grand scheme of things, it doesn't really matter when an agreement is reached as long as regular-season games aren't missed. Something will have to go seriously wrong for either of the two to play out their respective contracts this year.
49ers general manager John Lynch characterized Bosa's deal as complex at the beginning of training camp. The complexity probably stems from Bosa's agent, WME Sports' Brian Ayrault, being a shrewd negotiator who drives a hard bargain. ... Ayrault is certainly looking to put the younger Bosa at the top of the defensive player pay scale like he did for his brother in 2020.
In holdouts where the team takes a hardline stance, it isn't uncommon for the player to eventually ask for a trade. It wouldn't be a surprise for the Cowboys' Zack Martin to eventually demand a trade if Jerry Jones continues to be unwilling to make any adjustments to his contract.
3. Henry Ruggs III sentenced to 3-10 years for fatal DUI crash
The former Raiders wide receiver pleaded guilty in May to felony DUI causing death and misdemeanor vehicular manslaughter, stemming from a 2021 car crash that killed a Las Vegas woman and her dog. On Wednesday, the 24-year-old Ruggs had his sentencing hearing, which was attended by Eagles wideout and former Alabama teammate DeVonta Smith. Ruggs apologized to the victim's family, said he has "no excuses" and vowed to speak out against speeding and drunk driving after his sentence.
4. Top preseason openers to watch: Wilson's debut under Payton
Bryan DeArdo assessed all the Week 1 preseason games to find the must-see matchups. His top three have lots of QB drama:
- Broncos at Cardinals: What other game will feature a possible future Hall of Fame quarterback and coach? That's what will unfold in Arizona when Russell Wilson takes his first snaps under new coach Sean Payton. The former Saints coach perhaps also applied more pressure to himself after his recent public criticism of Nathaniel Hackett, his predecessor.
- Jets at Panthers: Saturday will be the NFL debut for No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young. The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner has had an impressive camp and was recently named the starter by coach Frank Reich.
- Steelers at Buccaneers: A rivalry renewed? Baker Mayfield, who went 3-5 against the Steelers during his time with the Browns, will face Pittsburgh on Friday night as he looks to get the edge in his position battle with Kyle Trask. For the Steelers, fellow former first-round pick Kenny Pickett will look to build off of what has been an impressive training camp so far.
5. Raiders still without Josh Jacobs: Top logical landing spots
Las Vegas' star running back has yet to take a single offseason rep while under the franchise tag, and, in fact, has yet to surface at team facilities amid threats of a holdout into the season. The Raiders have tentatively moved on, listing second-year backup Zamir White as the new RB1 on their unofficial preseason depth chart. So what now? In the event Jacobs is traded or has his tag rescinded, these six teams stand out as logical landing spots:
- Bears: Chicago has more money than most to offer, with $19.3M free in 2023 and close to $85M in projected 2024 cap space. Jacobs' bruising style would give young quarterback Justin Fields another safety valve and likely appeal to old-school defensive coach Matt Eberflus.
- Broncos: New coach Sean Payton has raved about Jacobs' ability and could accomplish two tasks at once by prying the back from Las Vegas: 1.) weaken a division rival, and 2.) ensure QB Russell Wilson has a killer ground game for his hopeful rebound.
- Dolphins: They've been apparent frontrunners in the Dalvin Cook sweepstakes, but with Cook taking his time and entertaining legit interest from the rival Jets, Miami could pivot to the younger option.
- Eagles: With $14M free and another Super Bowl bid in sight, a one-year flyer wouldn't be totally shocking considering how often they lean on the ground. Jacobs was at Alabama for all of Jalen Hurts' tenure with the Crimson Tide, and guys like D'Andre Swift, Rashaad Penny and Kenneth Gainwell are arguably better suited as secondary pieces anyway.
- Jets: Aaron Rodgers is in town, which means no move is off the table, regardless of the money or long-term fit. With $16.3M in current cap space, they could afford Jacobs anyway. Second-year back Breece Hall was mightily efficient as a rookie, but coming off injury, he's no guarantee to demand a bell-cow role.
- Patriots: Rhamondre Stevenson is lead-back material, but New England has been eyeing proven insurance for months, signing or courting James Robinson, Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott and others.
6. Extra points: Coach of Year picks, 49ers CEO under fire, Bateman activated
Hungry for even more headlines? You came to the right place:
- Brinson's Coach of the Year bets: Frank Reich and Mike Vrabel stand out going into 2023
- 49ers CEO sued for insider trading: Jed York is facing two lawsuits related to a college-exam cheating scandal
- Why the Cowboys are more valuable than other teams: Garrett Podell dives into America's Team's worth
- Ravens activate Rashod Bateman: The wide receiver had been on the PUP list since the start of camp
- Eagles' Jack contemplated new career: The ex-Jaguars LB almost became a plumber after 2022
