The Big 12 enters a new era in 2023 with a major membership swing. Texas and Oklahoma are preparing for their final seasons before embarking to the SEC, while the "Freshman Four" of BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF join the fray. A one-year layover with 14 teams makes for a unique time in conference history.
Leading the pack is Texas, which was picked to win the conference by gathered media earlier this summer for the first time since 2009. The Longhorns have not captured the top prize since former quarterback Colt McCoy graduated but are a popular pick to run away with the crown. Reigning champion Kansas State will be a top contender once again, while Oklahoma hopes to rebound after a difficult season. TCU lost several key offensive pieces from their run to the national title game, but will lean on transfers to fill gaps.
While there are favorites on the board, don't count anyone out. The Big 12 Championship Game has featured a team picked fourth or worse in the preseason every year since it returned in 2017. The last two Big 12 champions ranked No. 5 and No. 7 out of 10, respectively, in the preseason poll. With every team in the conference rated in the top half of the SP+ ratings, this could be one of the most unpredictable Big 12 seasons in years.
Our CBS Sports college football experts are here to make sense of all these pressing questions as they provide their picks and predictions for the Big 12 ahead of the 2023 season. Check them all out below.
Most overrated team
Oklahoma: The Brent Venables era at Oklahoma started with high hopes, but the first season ended with a thud. The Sooners finished 6-7 overall (3-6 in the Big 12 along with Kansas and West Virginia), but the expectations are high again this season. Texas is the favorite, but Oklahoma is in the preseason rankings and among the teams expected to challenge. I'm not fully buying into that, at least not yet. Venables still has to show he can get this team to play up to that level. -- Jerry Palm (Barrett Sallee, Shehan Jeyarajah, Will Backus)
Texas: The Longhorns went just 8-5 last season and haven't appeared in the Big 12 Championship Game since the league began playing one again in 2017. Yet, we're supposed to believe the Longhorns are back simply because they're more talented than the rest of the league? News flash: Texas has often been the Big 12's most talented program since the end of Mack Brown's coaching tenure, and success hasn't followed. The four in-state Big 12 opponents on Texas' schedule should be particularly anxious to take a final shot at the Longhorns before they leave for the SEC. That dynamic, combined with undeservedly lofty expectations, is a recipe for disappointment. -- David Cobb (Dennis Dodd)
TCU: The Horned Frogs begin the year at No. 17 in the CBS Sports 133, which on one hand probably feels too low considering the they played for a national title last year. On the other hand, it could prove to be too high come the end of the season. TCU was a fantastic team last year, but it went 6-1 in one-score games and then lost a lot of pivotal players . No team in the country had more close wins. -- Tom Fornelli
Iowa State: I'm worried this is going to come off as piling on, but the issues in and around the Iowa State football program are going to make it tough to foresee a 10th place finish in the conference, which is where the Cyclones were picked for the preseason media poll. Multiple projected starters are expected to face punishment because of the gambling investigation, and a couple of notable contributors have already left the program. It's a tough blow in terms of timing for an Iowa State program that is looking to assert its position in the reshaped Big 12 because these kinds of personnel issues are disruptive for a team that already tries to beat you at the margins. -- Chip Patterson
Most underrated team
Kansas: Kansas is returning a whopping 17 starters -- more than any other Big 12 squad -- from its best football team since Mark Mangino was patrolling the sidelines. So, it was shocking to see the Jayhawks come in at No. 9 in the Big 12 Media Poll -- behind conference newcomer UCF and an Oklahoma State team that bled talent to the transfer portal. Kansas may not be in a position to compete for the league title, but it does have the potential to catch a couple hopeful teams off guard. The schedule could lend itself to eight wins. -- Backus (Cobb)
Oklahoma State: The Cowboys churned the roster this offseason, and while there are valid reasons to believe this could lead to another subpar year for the Pokes, I'm going the other way. You seldom see a Mike Gundy team have two average years in a row, and with favorable schedule -- the Cowboys play all four league newcomers while avoiding Texas and TCU -- this is a team that could compete for a spot in the conference title game. -- Fornelli (Palm)
Texas Tech: Many typecast Red Raiders coach Joey McGuire as a recruiter because of his Texas high school football background, but don't discount his coaching ability. In his first season with an unfamiliar roster, Texas Tech pulled together its first eight-win campaign since 2013 and beat both Texas and Oklahoma in the same year for the first time in program history despite starting three different quarterbacks due to injury.
If QB Tyler Shough can stay healthy, the offense could take a massive step in McGuire's second season. The defense lost first-round NFL Draft pick Tyree Wilson on the defensive line, but the Red Raiders won their final three games without him in the lineup. Interior combo Tony Bradford Jr. and Jaylon Hutchings makes for perhaps the top defensive line pairing in the conference. Each year since 2018, one Big 12 team has ridden close-game luck to a conference championship game berth. Why not the Red Raiders in 2023? -- Jeyarajah (Dodd)
Texas: From a talent perspective, Texas is a top-six team nationally and deserving of a top-10 ranking heading into the season. From what I can gather, some of the thinking behind their lowered ranking -- No. 11 in both the AP Top 25 and CBS Sports 133 -- comes from the idea that this is a program that has been falling short of expectations since 2009. Let's take a deeper look at those expectations: Since the Big 12 ditched divisions in 2011, the preseason media poll has not picked Texas to win the league once until 2023. From 2011-22, the Longhorns were picked outside of the top three eight times and picked as the runner-up just once (2019). The preseason expectations for Texas have been as a good-but-not-elite team in the Big 12, and this year is different. Don't wave your hand with a "same old Texas" expectation because this is the best team the Longhorns have had in a while and they deserve a top-10 ranking until proven otherwise. -- Patterson
UCF: It's wild that the Knights were picked eighth in the conference when media ballots were submitted earlier this summer. Why? Because they're new to the conference and it takes time for a Group of Five program to transition to the Power Five? That might have been true a decade ago, but not in the age of the transfer portal. Dual-threat QB John Rhys Plumlee is the perfect fit for coach Gus Malzahn and will put up video game stats from the moment that toe meets leather in the 2023 season. The Knights are stout at wide receiver with Kobe Hudson and Javon Baker out of the transfer portal, and the front seven is incredibly experienced. They will remain in the conference title race in mid-November and will finish the regular season in the top 15 nationally. -- Sallee
Bold predictions
- Dennis Dodd: Coming off its best season in nine years, Texas Tech wins the Big 12 in McGuire's second season. The offense has 11 starters back, including the underrated Shough at quarterback. The Red Raiders get Oregon, Houston, Kansas State, TCU and UCF at home, and they don't play Oklahoma. Most interestingly, Texas Tech gets Texas in consecutive weeks -- Black Friday in Austin and Dec. 2 in the Big 12 title game.
- Tom Fornelli: Everybody in the league will win at least three conference games.
- Chip Patterson: Texas running back CJ Baxter will be among the top freshmen in the entire country. The Longhorns have a versatile and explosive offense with Quinn Ewers at the helm and weapons like Xavier Worthy, Jordan Whittington and Georgia transfer AD Mitchell on the outside. They even have a pretty deep running back room with sophomores Jonathon Brooks and Jaydon Blue back in the fold. But when it comes to replacing the production of Bijan Robinson, it's hard to ignore the camp buzz around five-star true freshman CJ Baxter. It may take a while for the rookie to get settled, but by the end of the year, he'll be an important piece of Texas' Big 12 title push and worthy of Freshman All-America honors.
- Barrett Sallee: Texas will roll into the Big 12 Championship Game with an 11-1 record and need to get by Kansas State to make the College Football Playoff. It won't happen. Kansas State -- the team that will have handed the Longhorns their lone regular-season loss -- will do it again. Sadly for Kansas State, regular-season losses to Oklahoma State and Kansas will prevent the Wildcats from making the CFP, and the Big 12 will be shut out of the four-team event.
- Shehan Jeyarajah: Texas will pull off the upset of the season by handing Alabama its first regular-season nonconference loss since Nick Saban's first season in 2007. Unfortunately, the Longhorns will then follow up a dominant win against Oklahoma by losing to Houston in their lone matchup as conference opponents. It's a win that will earn Cougars coach Dana Holgorsen a surprising contract extension.
- Jerry Palm: Life is going to be pretty tough for the four new members of this league -- and not just this season but for at least a few years as they adjust to power conference football.
- David Cobb: Texas will beat Alabama in Week 2 and catapult into the top-five of the AP Top 25 for the first time since 2010 as a result. But the Longhorns will pick up two losses elsewhere before Selection Sunday and miss the playoff.
- Will Backus: Week 2 is huge for the Big 12's profile: Texas upsets an Alabama team still solidifying the quarterback position and Texas Tech's Shough leads the Red Raiders to victory against Oregon, his former stomping grounds.
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Big 12 champion
Texas: In a year when much of the Big 12's top teams are rebuilding, Texas has a loaded roster and a manageable path to the top. The Longhorns boast three CBS Sports Preseason All-Americans in Worthy, tight end Ja'Tavion Sanders and offensive tackle Kelvin Banks. The rest of the Big 12 has one combined. Linebacker Jaylan Ford ranked as the Preseason Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year. Every offensive position group is stacked, while the defense should only improve after a solid 2022 campaign.
Ultimately, every question about the 2023 Longhorns falls on the coach. Steve Sarkisian has just a 59-47 career record in nine seasons despite coaching at three elite institutions. He has never won more than eight regular-season games. Without any roster excuses, Sarkisian needs to turn his luck around and win the program's first conference title since 2009. -- Jeyarajah (Fornelli, Patterson, Palm, Backus)
Kansas State: The Wildcats will make it back-to-back titles, further establishing themselves as one of the top programs in the Big 12 even as the landscape of the conference changes. Their offensive line is stout and quarterback Will Howard should improve with a full offseason as the starter. Plus, they are the best-coached team in the conference. They will finish the season as the No. 2 team in the conference and upset Texas in the Big 12 Championship Game, which will knock the Longhorns out of the College Football Playoff race. -- Sallee
Oklahoma: Last year was a season of seismic adjustment for Oklahoma following the departure of coach Lincoln Riley. The Sooners finished 0-6 in close games and were a non-factor in the Big 12 title race. But Venables remains one of the sport's brightest defensive minds, and offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby is one of the best at his craft. Oklahoma has the talent and coaching needed to win the league, and it enjoys a favorable schedule that misses Kansas State and Baylor, the last two Big 12 champions. Given last season's poor luck in close games, Oklahoma is due some breaks before it departs for the SEC. -- Cobb
Texas Tech: McGuire quietly won eight games in his first season. That included a sweep of Texas and Oklahoma. There are 16 returning starters. The administration is all in with a $200 million investment in facilities. That should be enough proof the Red Raiders are capable. Shough is a proven starter if he can stay healthy. This might be as good as the Raiders have been since Mike Leach. Oregon, Houston and Kansas State come to Lubbock. Oklahoma isn't on the schedule. Watch Syracuse transfer Steve Linton coming off the edge. Given all that, don't be surprised if Tech wins the Big 12. Regardless, the Nov. 24 season finale at Texas will be dramatic enough. How about a rematch the next week in the Big 12 Championship Game? -- Dodd
