When the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers battle in Super Bowl LIV on Sunday in Miami, everything is on the line. The winner will be hailed as NFL champions, while the loser will be just a historical footnote. You probably know all the storylines by now, from Kyle Shanahan looking to avenge his Falcons team's 28-3 meltdown in the Super Bowl, to Patrick Mahomes looking to complete his meteoric rise to the league's QB1 with a title, to Andy Reid finally adding a championship to his likely Hall of Fame resume, and everything in between.
That brings us to the ultimate question ... who's going to win? If you go by the spread (Chiefs -1.5) this game is expected to be close, and while the public may be siding with the Chiefs, there is no shortage of 49ers backers among the various NFL experts and analysts picking the game as well. The spread stayed under two points in the entire two-week run leading up to Super Bowl weekend, and that's pretty notable. If the game closes with less than a two-point spread, it'll be only the second Super Bowl where neither team is favored by at least two points since the 1981 season.
You'll probably remember the other Super Bowl in the last 38 years to qualify. That was Super Bowl XLIX, when the Patriots and Seahawks battled to a near stalemate for 59 minutes before Malcolm Butler intercepted Russell Wilson in the end zone to seal the win for New England. To some, including our Will Brinson, that was the greatest Super Bowl ever. Will this year's edition be more of the same?
Below, you'll find info on how to watch the game along with what you need to know about the opening and current lines. Then, you'll see our CBSSports.com expert picks, along with some analysis from some of our writers and SportsLine analysts. And be sure to check out the Pick Six Podcast (subscribe here!) as Pete Prisco, Will Brinson and I go deep into the game.
49ers vs. Chiefs
- Time: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (FOX), stream on fuboTV (Try for free)
- Open: Chiefs -1.5, O/U 52.5
- Current: Chiefs -1.5, O/U 54
Who should you back against the spread and on the money line in the Super Bowl? And what will the exact final score be? Visit SportsLine to see their latest cheat sheet, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated picks.
Chiefs win
"Add it all up, and it's tough game to pick. That's why the line is as close as it is. The teams are so even, but in the end, I think it always comes down to quarterback play, and Mahomes is the elite player in this game. Run, run, pass will lose out to pass, pass, run." -- Pete Prisco, who has the Chiefs winning 31-27
"I like the Chiefs to cover the spread on Sunday, but I must admit I don't love it. Especially after talking to guys like Joe Montana on Radio Row and hearing them speak about how defense usually prevails in matchups like this. I'll confess, I started swaying a little bit this week. But ultimately, I think Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the world right now, and I believe he's worth a couple of more points than the 49ers managed to score." -- Jason La Canfora, who has the Chiefs winning 27-24
"I'm taking the Chiefs to win and cover because the gap in quarterback play is too substantial. The only way I see the 49ers winning is if their defense shuts down Mahomes, but again, that almost never happens. With Mahomes as the starter in 35 games (including the postseason), the Chiefs have scored fewer than 21 points once. I'd rather bet on Mahomes doing what he always does and Garoppolo making a few mistakes as he tries to keep pace. I don't think it'll be a blowout. The 49ers are too good to get blown out. But I do think the Chiefs will win by a touchdown." -- Sean Wagner-McGough, who has the Chiefs winning 31-24
"It actually would not be surprising to see the Chiefs elect to run the ball a bit more often than usual, whether to keep San Francisco off balance or because their pass defense is just so tough. But Andy Reid would be wiser to keep this game in Mahomes' hands rather than on Williams' shoulders. Williams contributes plenty in the passing game, and the Chiefs are a passing team." -- Jared Dubin, who has the Chiefs winning 33-31
"The Chiefs will undoubtedly have a harder time running away with this one, and they can't afford to dig themselves another early, deep hole. Preventing the run will be a challenge. All that being said, Mahomes is Mahomes. And even if No. 15 gets dragged to the Hard Rock Stadium surface a handful of times, he's got an arm that's built to win championships. Andy Reid may have a reputation for poor clock management in big-time situations, but he's never been better positioned to just let his talent win the day. If Tyrann Mathieu's ranginess or Chris Jones' penetration can deliver a turnover, that'll be a bonus. But this comes down to the QB, and no one has shown a more otherworldly ability to escape trouble, extend plays and then wow us with improbable bullets like Mr. Mahomes." -- Cody Benjamin, who has the Chiefs winning 31-29
"Like many, I expect this game to be a close one, but I believe the Chiefs will win in large part due to Mahomes. The Chiefs know they should have been in Super Bowl LIII last year, and they don't want to let this opportunity slip through their fingers. Additionally, Andy Reid has been chasing that elusive Super Bowl ring long enough." -- Jordan Dajani, who has the Chiefs winning 30-27
Legendary NFL handicapper Hank Goldberg is on an incredible 21-6 run with his best bets, including a 3-0 sweep on Conference Championship Sunday! He's locked in a 7-1 parlay for Super Bowl Sunday, and you can get his picks over at SportsLine.
49ers win
"The one thing that often gets overlooked in that game is that the reason the Falcons even had a 28-3 lead to blow is because Shanahan's offense absolutely diced up the Patriots defense for two and a half quarters in Super Bowl LI. That happened because Shanahan is one of the most creative offensive minds in the game, and that's something that could be trouble for the Chiefs defense. With Shanahan calling the shots, the 49ers offense had the second-most rushing yards, scored the third-most points and totaled the fourth-most yardage overall in the NFL this year. That first thing on the list is what could end up being an issue for the Chiefs, and that's because Kansas City gave up 4.9 yards per carry during the regular season, which was the fourth-worst in the NFL. Although the Chiefs defense has played much better in the postseason -- THEY EVEN STOPPED DERRICK HENRY -- I'm not completely sold on the fact that they're going to be able to stop the 49ers rushing attack." -- John Breech, who has the 49ers winning 34-27
"I don't think Mahomes is going to have a great game. You will be shocked to learn that Mahomes is still a human quarterback, and like nearly all quarterbacks, he does not perform nearly as well under pressure as when he has time to find his target. Well, there is no defense better at getting pressure on the QB than San Francisco, and the Chiefs have not had to deal with a pass rush like the one they'll be facing in the Super Bowl. The San Francisco defense, combined with an offense that can control the clock, will limit what the typically explosive Chiefs offense can do, and the 49ers will win this game -- and cover -- because of it." -- Tom Fornelli, who has the 49ers winning 23-21
"While the 49ers haven't needed Jimmy Garoppolo during their run to the Super Bowl up to this point, I don't believe he has the limitations that the likes of Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee has. In fact, I expect that he'll surprise some of the NFL viewing world with his ability to come up in the clutch. Against playoff teams, Garoppolo's 49ers averaged 30.4 points a game, while he averaged 13.4 yards per attempt and had eight touchdowns to just two picks. With Kyle Shanahan moving the chess pieces, I expect San Francisco to fare just fine in this shootout." -- Tyler Sullivan, who has the 49ers winning 36-33
SportsLine expert Mike Tierney enters Super Bowl 2020 on a 63-36 run that's returned $2,341 to $100 players. He's also 13-5 in his last 18 picks involving either the Chiefs or 49ers, so you'll want to see his ATS pick only at SportsLine.
Super Bowl props
There are more than a thousand ways you can bet on Super Bowl LIV, as sportsbooks treat Super Bowl Sunday like an all-you-can-eat buffet, offering up props to bettors on just about every aspect of the game. We've collected 54 notable props in our Ultimate Super Bowl Props Guide, with a suggested pick for each. Check it out before you lock in your picks.
In addition to the guide, Tom Fornelli gives his top five player props, including why Patrick Mahomes' rushing total is a lock to go under, and Jordan Dajani weighs in with his top five prop bets, including why he's taking Travis Kelce to score a touchdown. But our best prop picks come courtesy of SportsLine, where you can see the top 30 prop bet predictions, all from a team of veteran experts and handicappers with decades of experience covering the NFL.
