Today's Top Picks: Two college football best bets plus one NBA total to cap off a perfect week

There's a lot of pressure on me for these picks. You see, I do this Top Picks column three times a week, and so far this week, I've gone 6-0. I'd really like to go 9-0 on the week, but I shouldn't even be mentioning any of this because I might jinx myself.

"But what if he's only mentioning this so he can blame the jinx if he gets any of tonight's picks wrong," you ask yourself while reading.

Wow, you're smarter than you look. Anyway, here are tonight's picks. All odds are via William Hill.

1. UCF at Tulsa: Under 69

I'm half-tempted to take Tulsa and the points here as well because I think this spread is overrating UCF, and there's contrarian value on the Hurricane. The problem is that while Tulsa has played better than its record suggests this season, its record has seven losses. That means bowl eligibility is out the window, and I've seen plenty of teams fade late in the season when there's nothing left to play for. Instead, I'll take the value I see on the under. The under is usually a smart play in UCF games because everyone thinks of its explosive offense, and it inflates the total. Perhaps that's why the under has gone 10-4 the last 14 times UCF has played on a Friday night when it's one of the lone games on the schedule. It's also 5-2 in UCF's last seven road games, and it's gone 6-2-1 the last nine times these teams have played.

CBS Sports analyst Barrett Sallee has delivered in a big way with his best bets since his 2017 SportsLine debut, and he's at it again this year, going 20-9-1 with his weekly best bets. Check out with three picks he loves in Week 11 over at SportsLine.

2. Washington at Oregon State: Washington -10

Oregon State has been one of the bigger surprises of the college football season, though most people don't know it. Before the season began, most sportsbooks put Oregon State's win total between 2 and 2.5. Well, it's already 4-4 and currently sits in second place in the Pac-12 North, ahead of the Washington team it faces tonight. Still, I'm not ready to trust the Beavers in this spot. Their three conference wins have come against UCLA (before it got hot), a moribund Cal team, and a mediocre Arizona squad. Against physical teams like Stanford and Utah, the Beavers lost. Heck, Utah destroyed the Beavers 52-7, and while I don't see Washington winning that easily, I do expect it'll have a much easier time putting up points against the Oregon State defense than the Beavers offense will on its defense.

Who should you back against the spread, on the money line and the total in every Week 10 NFL game? And which Super Bowl contender goes down? Visit SportsLine to see their Week 10 NFL cheat sheet, all from the model that is up almost $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks. 

3. Cavaliers at Wizards: Under 232

Neither of these teams has an efficient defense, as Cleveland ranks 24th in the NBA and Washington is 27th. That's why the total for this game is as high as it is, but while Washington's offense has played well to start the year, Cleveland's hasn't. The Cavs have an offensive efficiency of 0.918 on the road this year, and I don't know that they'll score enough points in this game to push the total past 232. 

DFS millionaire Mike McClure has cashed on many of his SportsLine lineups so far during this NBA season, and you'll want to see who makes the cut for his optimal lineups on Friday. Check out his picks over at SportsLine. 

CBS Sports Writer

Tom Fornelli has been a college football writer at CBS Sports since 2010. During his time at CBS, Tom has proven time and again that he hates your favorite team and thinks your rival is a paragon of football... Full Bio

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