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It's been a rough start to training camp for the Dolphins. Jay Ajayi suffered a concussion, left guard Ted Larsen injured his biceps and, worst of all, quarterback Ryan Tannehill might be done for the season with a knee injury.
And this is all before the first preseason game.
While Ajayi is expected to be fine and Larsen hasn't yet been ruled out for the year, the Dolphins appear to be planning for life without Tannehill in 2017 (and potentially beyond). Tannehill re-injured the same knee Thursday that he hurt last year in Week 14, which knocked him out for the season.
The injury happened when he was rolling out in practice, and Tannehill wasn't touched on the play. The extent of the damage isn't known, but reports Thursday night indicated Tannehill could need season-ending knee surgery.
On Friday, Dolphins coach Adam Gase said "right now" Matt Moore "is our quarterback." There is speculation the Dolphins could bring in Colin Kaepernick or Jay Cutler, who played for Gase when he was the offensive coordinator in Chicago in 2015. Neither would necessarily start over Moore, although it's hard to imagine Cutler coming out of retirement to back up a backup.
In most situations, Fantasy owners would panic if a starting quarterback went down, especially when prominent receivers are involved. And the Dolphins have three of them, to varying degrees, with Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Kenny Stills. Throw in tight end Julius Thomas, and this was a passing game to covet in the majority of leagues.
It still is -- even with Moore.
The positive in this situation is we got a four-game sample size in 2016 of what the Dolphins offense should look like with Moore under center. He started Weeks 15, 16 and 17 after Tannehill got hurt, and he was the starter in the playoff loss at Pittsburgh.
Moore isn't going to be drafted in the majority of Fantasy leagues -- he's an option in two-quarterback formats at best -- but Landry and Parker shouldn't lose any value with Tannehill gone. And Stills might benefit given what we saw last year between him and Moore.
Start with Landry, whose Average Draft Position on Fantasy Pros is currently in Round 4 in all leagues. He's the No. 19 receiver off the board in PPR and No. 20 in standard leagues, and he should stay in that range.
In four games with Moore last year, Landry had 26 catches for 315 yards and two touchdowns on 33 targets. If you project that over 16 games, Landry would have finished with 104 catches for 1,260 yards and eight touchdowns on 132 targets. The catches and targets would be the second-best of his career (he had 110 catches on 166 targets in 2015), but the yards and touchdowns would be career highs.
While we don't expect Landry to match those totals, especially the touchdowns since his career best is five, he shouldn't suffer with Moore. And since Landry is in a contract year, there's a good chance he continues to play at a high level.
Parker has received rave reviews this offseason, and he has the chance for a breakout campaign in his third year in the NFL. His ADP is Round 8 in PPR as the No. 37 receiver, and he's going as the No. 42 receiver in Round 9 in standard leagues. I expect him to outperform that draft value, and he's someone to target in all formats.
Now, Parker didn't have dominant stats with Moore. In their four games together last season, Parker only had 14 catches for 202 yards and one touchdown on 22 targets. Playing the projection game, he would have finished with 56 catches, 808 yards and four touchdowns on 88 targets over a full season, which is basically what he did in 2016 (56 catches, 744 yards and four touchdowns on 87 targets).
But if you like Parker, as I do, you're buying his potential in what should be the best year of his career. He's easily worth his price tag in Round 8 or 9.
Fantasy owners would love Stills to perform in 2017 as he did during his time with Moore. In those final four games last year, Stills had 13 catches for 210 yards and three touchdowns on 23 targets. He scored at least eight Fantasy points in a standard league in every game.
If you project those stats over 16 games, Stills would have finished with 52 catches for 840 yards and 12 touchdowns on 92 targets. That would be an improvement on his actual stats from 2016 when he had 42 catches for 726 yards and nine touchdowns on 81 targets.
We doubt Stills gets better this year, especially if Parker improves and Thomas makes an impact, but it's clear he and Moore have a good rapport. And Stills is definitely worth a late-round flier given his ADP, which is Round 15 in PPR and Round 18 in standard leagues.
As for Thomas, Fantasy owners should view him as a late-round flier in all leagues now that he's back with Gase. He didn't play with Tannehill or Moore last year since this is his first season in Miami, but when he last played for Gase as the offensive coordinator in Denver, Thomas had 24 touchdowns combined in 2013-14 and was a top 10 Fantasy tight end both years.
Ajayi also should be fine with Moore under center. His value is tied to center Mike Pouncey, who appears to be healthy this season after being limited to five games in 2016 with a hip injury. The more games Pouncey plays, the better off Ajayi will be, and he's worth drafting in Round 2 in all formats.
It's bad news to be talking about a starting quarterback being lost for the season at the start of training camp. But the Dolphins should be OK with Moore, and he will keep Landry, Parker and Stills playing at a high level for Fantasy owners this year.
