The first week after the Super Bowl is generally when I release my way-too-early projections and if you're wondering why I used that phrasing in both the headline and the first sentence of the article, it's because it is -- in fact-- way too early. At the same time, it's kind of fun and a lot of these projections will closely resemble what they look like in July.
Note that for the most part, I did not project unrestricted free agents. They are in my rankings, just not in the projections because I build those from a team-based approach and I don't know where to stick them. That's why free agency and the NFL Draft will have such a big impact on these projections in the coming months.
One other thing you may notice is that my expectations for Kyle Pitts are quite a bit higher than last year, despite the fact that Pitts finished below his 2021 ADP. Of course, that won't be surprising if you've ever read one of my regression articles.
Pitts was phenomenal as a rookie, and surpassed my expectations by earning 110 targets and turning them into 68 catches for 1,026 yards. Only Mike Ditka ever had more receiving yards as a rookie. But in Fantasy he was a bit of a disappointment because he only scored one touchdown.
For a player of Pitts size and skill set I would not be surprised if he posted a six percent touchdown rate for the rest of his career, maybe even higher. Last year he scored on 0.9% of his targets. As you'll see, I have Piits projected for a four percent touchdown rate in 2022 (Matt Ryan's top target has often struggled in this department).
Even with that low touchdown projections, Pitts comes in at TE5, one spot ahead of George Kittle. But his upside is as high as any tight end in Fantasy starting in 2022.
Here are my updated 2022 tight end projections: