This is a bad offseason to need rotation help -- there's never a good time to need rotation help, but this winter is an especially bad time -- and that means it's a great offseason to be a free-agent starting pitcher. Demand greatly outweighs supply, so even pitchers coming off down seasons figure to cash in nicely.
Among those pitchers coming off a down season is erstwhile Philadelphia Phillies ace Aaron Nola, who tossed 193 2/3 innings with a 4.46 ERA during the 2023 regular season. He was mostly terrific in October, allowing only six runs in 23 innings in four starts. Nola is one of the few true workhorses in the game today. He's averaged 193 2/3 innings in his last six 162-game seasons.
Our R.J. Anderson ranked Nola as the No. 5 free agent available this offseason, and No. 2 among full-time pitchers. Here's his write-up:
Nola has an inverse Saberhagen thing going on. He's been excellent in recent even years and only average in odd years. There's no predictive power to be found in that observation, but noticing patterns in the wild sure pleases the lizard brain. Anyway, several veteran talent evaluators expressed that they would prefer to sign Nola over Blake Snell no matter the financial component. The reasoning is straightforward: Nola's ERA has bobbed up and down over the last handful of seasons, but he throws a lot of strikes and has required just one stint on the injured list since 2018. We suspect teams will be interested in seeing how Nola performs in front of a different defense, too.
The workload could scare away some clubs worried about wear and tear, and he did show at least a mildly concerning dip in strikeout rate in 2023. That said, the 30-year-old Nola still has all the tools to be an above-average starter, and he's as good a bet to take the ball every fifth day as anyone in this sport. The best ability is availability and Nola provides it.
With the caveat that every single team could use a pitcher like Nola, here are the top five landing spots for the veteran right-hander. These are the clubs best positioned to land him and who also need him the most.
5. Arizona Diamondbacks
Perhaps Arizona is a long shot seeing how Nola is headed for a nine-figure contract, though the D-backs did open their wallet for Zack Greinke once upon a time. Is there a better time to spend than now? The position player core (Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Gabriel Moreno, Alek Thomas) will never be cheaper than it is today and there's a clear need in the rotation. The D-backs fell three wins short of a World Series title with a rotation of Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and rookie Brandon Pfaadt. Add Nola to Gallen, Kelly, and a more experienced Pfaadt, and they'll really have something. The D-backs seem poised to strike this offseason.
4. Boston Red Sox
Realistically, the Red Sox need at least two starters this offseason, maybe three. Chris Sale is no longer an ace and he's dealt with numerous injuries in recent years, and the impressive Brayan Bello must be handled carefully given his youth. You don't want to overwork the kid and risk injury. Boston has a clear need for someone who can go out and eat innings every fifth day, and almost no one in the sport does that as well as Nola. Red Sox ownership is difficult to pin down -- will they go all-in to win or continue building up slowly? -- but Nola is the sort of pitcher who can help now and later. Even if the Red Sox think they're a year away from being a serious World Series contender, Nola fits that timeline.
3. Atlanta Braves
This would be juicy given the NL East rivalry thing, though there are valid reasons for the Braves to pursue Nola. Max Fried is a year away from free agency, Charlie Morton is going year-to-year at this point in his career, and we're not sure exactly how good Bryce Elder is following his All-Star first half and 5.11 ERA second half. Signing Nola improves the 2024 Braves, gives them a high-end starter to pair with Spencer Strider in 2025 and beyond, and weakens a division rival by signing Nola away from the Phillies. One advantage of having your core locked up so affordably is being able to go out and splurge on a top starter. Now is as good a time as any to go do it.
2. St. Louis Cardinals
It seems likely the Cardinals will import two starters this offseason, maybe even three, and I'm not talking about No. 5 starter/swingman types. They need impact pitchers who can start postseason games, and they have money to spend. St. Louis has been connected to just about every top free agent starter in the early days of the offseason, including Nola, and he does fit their M.O. as a low maintenance veteran who is out there every day (or every fifth day, really). On paper, Nola is an excellent fit for the Cardinals, and all indications are they will pursue him aggressively.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
There is a strong case -- a very strong case -- to be made the Cardinals belong in the No. 1 spot, though I think the Phillies remain the favorite to sign Nola, even if only slightly. They're the only organization he knows, they're willing to spend a lot of money, and they're a World Series contender that continually strives to get better. Nola is going to get paid one way or another, but the Phillies offer so much other teams can not. I do not think Nola returning to Philadelphia is inevitable -- I think it's less than 50/50, honestly -- but I think their chances of re-signing him are strong.
