Dodgers 2021 season preview: Projected lineup, rotation and three questions as L.A. tries to repeat

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The Dodgers in 2021 have one objective -- become the first team since the 1999 Yankees to repeat as World Series champions. Given the extent to which they dominated baseball last season, and given that they've added the best starting pitcher available to the fold, it's entirely possible they'll get it done. Along the way, Los Angeles will be trying to win the NL West for a ninth straight season. To do that, though, they'll have to fend off a highly weaponized Padres squad that may be the second-best team in all of baseball, at least on paper. Now let's have a closer look at Dave Roberts' juggernaut.

Win total projections, odds

2021 Sportsline projection: 112-50
World Series odds (via William Hill Sportsbook): +350
2020 record: 43-17

Projected lineup

Bench: INF/OF Chris Taylor, C Austin Barnes, INF/OF Edwin Rios, INF/OF Matt Beaty

The Dodgers last season led the majors in runs scored and ranked second in OPS, and they did so despite playing their home games in a pitchers' ballpark. They'll once again be a powerhouse with the bats. One X-factor is whether second baseman Gavin Lux is ready for everyday duty at the highest level. Although Lux has struggled in 42 games in the majors, he's still just 23. He's also not far removed from being one of the top prospects in all of baseball. As a former first-rounder who dominated in the high minors, Lux still has a lofty ceiling. Perhaps in 2021, he's ready to approach that ceiling.

Projected rotation, bullpen

Bullpen: RHP Kenley Jansen, RHP Blake Treinen, RHP Dustin May, LHP Victor Gonzalez, RHP Corey Knebel, LHP Scott Alexander, RHP Dennis Santana, RHP Tony Gonsolin

The Dodgers in 2020 led the majors with a team ERA of 3.02 (!). In case you suspect run-suppressing Dodger Stadium of playing a role in that figure, know that the Dodgers also led the majors in ERA+, which is adjusted to reflect league and ballpark conditions. Once again, there's impressive depth, and the addition of Bauer not only improves the rotation (more on that below) but also the extent to which he fattens the depth chart will help the bullpen. Speaking of the bullpen, one thing to monitor is how Kenley Jansen and his declining velocity fare in the early weeks of the season. Roberts has Treinen as a fallback closer, or he could choose to play matchups in the late innings in the event that Jansen isn't closing out his save opportunities.

Now for three Dodgers-related questions -- burning in some cases, merely warm to the touch in others -- to ponder as the 2021 season approaches.

1. Is Trevor Bauer a true ace?

The ballyhooed signing of Bauer will no doubt make the Dodger rotation better. The heart of the matter is how much better. From 2017-19, Bauer pitched to a 124 ERA+ with a K/BB ratio of 3.37. Those are very strong results, but last season en route to winning the NL Cy Young award Bauer got even better: 276 ERA+ with a 5.88 K/BB ratio. Underpinning those strides was a subtle change in Bauer's pitch mix. Specifically, he mostly turfed his changeup and sinker and instead focused on a four-pitch repertoire of fastball-slider-cutter-curve.

That said, there are very good reasons to think Bauer won't be able to sustain the run-prevention heights he reached last season. First, we're talking about a span of just 11 starts, which is not only a small sample size but also largely eliminated the possibility of high-workload fatigue for Bauer. As well, those 11 starts came against largely sub-par competition. To wit, 10 of Bauer's 11 starts came against offenses that ranked 20th or worse in MLB in runs per game, and six of his starts came against offenses that ranked in the bottom five of the league. On yet another level, there's the fact that Bauer's peripherals don't quite justify that 1.73 ERA. If you look at Fielding Independent Pitching, which attempts to strip away luck and defense and find out what a pitcher's deserved ERA might be, then you'll find Bauer in 2020 checked in with a mark of 2.88. That's still excellent, but it's more than a full run higher than his actual ERA.

Even if Bauer regresses substantially in 2021, he's going to be a very good starting pitcher and a worthwhile signing by the Dodgers. The 2020 season, however, may turn out to be a career peak that he never reaches again.

2. How will the back of the rotation shake out?

While most teams are confronted with a dearth of worthies when it comes to fleshing out the back end of the rotation, the Dodgers have the opposite issue -- an overabundance of quality starting pitchers. Right now, the guess is that veteran lefty David Price earns a spot as he returns from his 2020 opt-out decision. Price, however, has expressed a willingness to work out of the bullpen should the Dodgers determine that's how he's best deployed this season. Such willingness is highly laudable, particularly when it comes from a tenured vet like Price. That possibility means that the final two spots are in play. Urias seems likely to seize one, but on some level it's still Urias, Price, May, and Gonsolin dueling for the fourth- and fifth-starter's jobs. Teams rarely make it though a season using just five starting pitchers, so all of those names will likely get a shot at some point. As almost any other team will attest, it's a good "problem" for manager Dave Roberts to have.

3. Will the 2021 Dodgers be one of the best teams ever?

Yes, this an entirely fair question to ask, as that "bullish in the extreme" SportsLine forecast above suggests. Over the last two regular seasons, the Dodgers have gone 149-73, which comes to a win percentage of .671. Look at run differential, and over the last two seasons they have a "deserved" record based on runs scored and runs allowed of 150-72. In other words, the Dodgers' astounding success has been earned at a very fundamental level. Take that sky-scraping baseline and add Bauer to it, and you have the makings of a generational team in 2021. You've got perhaps three Cy Young candidates in the rotation, and you have at least as many MVP candidates in the lineup. The potential for lasting greatness is fitting in the sense that the 2020 Dodgers might be thought of as one of the best ever had they been permitted to play a full 162-game slate.