A dream season is turning into a nightmare for the Texas Rangers. Earlier this week, they were thoroughly dismantled by the Houston Astros, getting swept at home while being outscored 39-10 and outhomered 16-6 in the three games. The Rangers are 4-15 in their last 19 games and, despite having spent 150 days in first place, now sit a half-game out of a wild-card spot.
"Everybody can look in the mirror and sit there and say, 'I wish I could do something better,'" Max Scherzer, who lasted only three innings in Wednesday's loss, told MLB.com after the sweep. "That's what it takes at this level. The line between good and great, it's so small, and little things beat you every single time out. Everybody's got to just do their job just a little bit better."
The fact of the matter is the Rangers' collapse -- Texas led the AL West by as many as 6.5 games earlier this year -- has been in the works for several weeks. The Rangers peaked at 20 games over .500 on June 6 (40-20). Since then, they are 36-43, which means they were 32-28 in the 60 games immediately prior to this 4-15 stretch. That's not bad, but it's not great either.
| AL West on June 23 | AL West on Sept. 8 |
|---|---|
1. Texas Rangers: 47-28 | 1. Houston Astros: 80-61 |
2. Houston Astros: 41-35 (6.5 GB) | 2. Seattle Mariners: 79-61 (0.5 GB) |
3. Los Angeles Angels: 41-36 (7.0 GB) | 3. Texas Rangers: 76-63 (3 GB) |
4. Seattle Mariners: 37-37 (9.5 GB) | 4. Los Angeles Angels: 65-76 (15 GB) |
5. Oakland Athletics: 20-58 (28.5 GB) | 5. Oakland Athletics: 43-97 (36.5 GB) |
The Rangers, who were in sole possession of first place from May 6 through Aug. 24, haven't been to the postseason since 2016, when they won 95 games and the AL West but were swept by the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALDS. They are 0-5 in their last five postseason games dating back to the 2015 ALDS (the José Bautista bat flip series).
For most of the season, the Rangers were on track to end their postseason drought and at least have a chance to end their postseason losing streak. Now a postseason berth isn't assured, and even if the Rangers do make it, they may not play a home postseason game, as the second and third wild-card teams have to go on the road in the Wild Card Series.
When a team struggles as badly as the Rangers have lately, there is never one single reason. It's usually a perfect storm of several things happening at once, and that is certainly the case in Texas. Here are four things to know about the club's collapse and why all hope is not yet lost.
1. The bullpen has been a disaster
Disaster is a strong word but it is appropriate here. The Rangers held a lead in eight of the 15 losses during this 4-15 stretch. Four times they had a lead in the seventh inning or later and four times they blew a lead of at least three runs, including in three straight games at one point. In two of the four wins, the Rangers blew a lead in the sixth inning or later, and had to come back.
Turn even four of those eight leads into wins, and we're talking about a tolerable 8-11 stretch and the Rangers being in a wild-card spot, rather than a disastrous 4-15 stretch that has them on the outside of the playoff bracket. The bullpen has been a liability all year and it has been especially bad in the second half. Here are the bullpen numbers and the MLB ranks:
| First half | Second half | |
|---|---|---|
ERA | 4.54 (25th) | 5.74 (28th) |
WHIP | 1.23 (7th) | 1.38 (19th) |
K/BB | 2.89 (6th) | 2.45 (14th) |
WAR | 3.1 (12th) | -1.8 (30th) |
Meltdowns | 46 (15th) | 32 (7th most) |
Meltdowns are a fun little stat based on win probability. A meltdown is a relief appearance that decreases the team's win probability at least 6%. In the first half, the Rangers were middle of the pack in meltdowns, which is neither good nor bad. In the second half though, they have the seventh most meltdowns, stacking up costly relief appearances that typically blow games.
This is happening even though the Rangers jumped into the trade market early and brought in Aroldis Chapman on June 30. The seven-time All-Star has pitched well with Texas overall (3.18 ERA in 22 2/3 innings), but he's allowed runs in five of his last seven appearances and has either taken the loss or been saddled with a blown save in four of those seven appearances.
The Rangers brought in Chapman and Chris Stratton prior to the trade deadline, and I'm willing to bet they were among the teams to place a claim on Reynaldo López and Matt Moore last month, but neither got to them on waivers. At this point, the bullpen is what it is. The personnel can only be shuffled so much. There is only one solution now: pitch better.
The rotation is not without fault during this collapse -- the starters have a 5.54 ERA and failed to complete five innings 10 times during the 4-15 stretch -- but the bullpen has been a season-long problem that has only gotten worse. The Rangers have had leads the last few weeks. They just haven't stood up. The bullpen has left a lot of wins on the table during the collapse.
2. The offense has come back to Earth
For much of the season, the Rangers have been an offensive juggernaut. They currently rank third in runs scored per game (5.48) and led the league much of the season, and 18 times in their first 80 games they scored 10-plus runs. That's once every 4.4 games. In the 59 games since, they've scored at least 10 runs only five times, or once every 11.8 games.
Of course, the Rangers were never going to continue scoring double-digit runs more than one out of every five games. That is not a sustainable pace. The offense has come back to Earth the last few weeks, which doesn't mean it has been bad. It just hasn't been as dynamic as it was earlier this season. The monthly splits tell the story:
| PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | OPS+ | R/G | HR/G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
April | 1,075 | .259/.339/.444 | 115 | 6.36 | 1.36 |
May | 1,075 | .286/.341/.456 | 117 | 6.22 | 1.22 |
June | 1,078 | .274/.347/.474 | 124 | 5.19 | 1.56 |
July | 916 | .270/.340/.453 | 114 | 5.13 | 1.29 |
August | 1,057 | .250/.325/.440 | 106 | 4.78 | 1.48 |
September | 224 | .229/.290/.449 | 86 | 4.00 | 2.00 |
By OPS+, which adjusts offense for ballpark and the league's run-scoring environment, the Rangers have had their three worst offensive months in the last three months, though obviously September is a tiny sample. Since Aug. 1, this has more or less been a league average offense. League average isn't bad, but it isn't the game-changing offense Texas had earlier this year.
The numbers with runners in scoring position stand out as well: .334/.383/.542 in April and May, and .236/.324/.395 since. That's nearly a 100-point batting average decline in-season. Performance with runners in scoring position can be noisy and not accurately reflect the player's or team's true talent level, but those stats are a record of what happened on the field, and Texas has struggled in those situations since May.
"I wish I could say there was something there," Rangers manager Bruce Bochy told MLB.com about the team's trouble with runners in scoring position back in June. "You're right, there's no way we were going to sustain what we were doing. You'd like to stay a little bit closer to it. I don't think we saw the struggles that we've had recently because of the hitters that we have. But hey, it happens, like I said. It's part of the game, you have to deal with it."
Several individual players have slipped offensively. Leody Taveras has gone from a 121 OPS+ in the first half to a 56 OPS+ in the second half. Jonah Heim had a 121 OPS+ in the first half and has put up a 71 OPS+ in the second half. For Adolis García, who just landed on the IL, those numbers are a 130 OPS+ and then a 99 OPS+. Ezequiel Duran has the most extreme first/second half split: 136 OPS+ to 56 OPS+.
Corey Seager has been out-of-this-world good. He's hitting .339/.401/.648 with 28 home runs in 96 games around hamstring and thumb injuries this year. His 179 OPS+ is second only to Shohei Ohtani (182 OPS+) among all hitters. Seager isn't the problem. And neither is rookie third baseman Josh Jung (117 OPS+), who has been sorely missed since breaking his thumb last month.
The rest of the lineup has been lacking lately. Seager's been unreal, Marcus Semien and Nathaniel Lowe have done their jobs, and that's about it. The offense was never going to sustain what it did in April and May, particularly with runners in scoring position, but the crash has been harder than the Rangers would have liked. The offense is no longer covering for the pitching deficiencies.
3. Extra-inning games have not gone well
The Rangers are 2-8 in extra-inning games this season, including 0-5 in their last five extra-inning games. Four of those five have come during this ghastly 4-15 stretch. This, obviously, is tied to their bullpen struggles and offensive regression. Texas has been unable to get The Big Hit or The Big Out. When the game is on line in extras, they have failed to execute. Simple as that.
Managers tend to get a lot of blame for extra-inning losses (why'd he use that reliever, why didn't he bunt the automatic runner over, etc.) but it's on the players. They're not performing. It doesn't mean they're chokers or that they'll fail to get the job done forever. It just means they have failed to get a key hit or make a big pitch recently, and it has cost the Rangers games in the standings.
Go even a modest 2-3 in those last five extra-inning games rather than 0-5, and Texas is in a wild-card spot. The margin of error in extra-inning games is razor thin. One bounce, one borderline call can change everything. They really are coin flip games, and the coin flip has not gone the Rangers' way lately. Too many winnable games are slipping away.
4. Injuries are catching up to them
I don't want to harp on this because every team has injuries. The Mariners got one start out of Robbie Ray, the Astros didn't get any out of Lance McCullers Jr. and it wasn't until last week that Michael Brantley returned, etc. But yes, the Rangers have dealt with several key injuries this year. Jung's broken thumb is chief among them. He was having a phenomenal rookie season.
Jacob deGrom, signed to be the No. 1 guy in October, needed his second career Tommy John surgery in June after making just six starts this year. Nathan Eovaldi was sidelined from July 19 to Sept. 4 by elbow trouble. He was pitching like a Cy Young candidate prior to the injury. Brett Martin and Jake Odorizzi both had shoulder surgery and have not pitched this year.
According to the Baseball Prospectus Injured List Ledger, the Rangers have lost 841 man-games to injury, which is the tenth fewest in baseball. They have also lost a projected 5.1 WARP to injury, however. That is the ninth most. The injuries they have suffered have been impactful, notably deGrom, Eovaldi, and Jung. That's reality. Also reality: other teams have injuries too. That's baseball.
(I must add deGrom and Eovaldi missing time should not have come as a surprise giving their histories. The Rangers rolled the dice and assumed the injury risk to get the upside, and it hasn't really worked out. deGrom and Eovaldi have started only 26 of the team's 139 games. The Rangers were surely hoping for something closer to 55-60 starts out of them this year.)
They still control their own destiny
As bad as things have been lately -- and they have been extremely bad -- the Rangers are still in the wild-card race and they control their own destiny. First and foremost, they have to take care of business against the A's this weekend. Oakland has already lost 97 games and been eliminated from postseason contention. Any team can beat any other team on any night in this game, but if you're fighting for a postseason berth in September, you have to win games against teams like the Athletics.
Following this weekend's A's series, the Rangers will have four series remaining with teams they are battling either for a wild-card spot or the AL West title. Those four series:
- Sept. 11-14: 4 games at Toronto Blue Jays
- Sept. 18-20: 3 games vs. Boston Red Sox
- Sept. 22-24: 3 games vs. Seattle Mariners
- Sept. 28 to Oct. 1: 4 games at Seattle Mariners
That Blue Jays series next week might be the single biggest series of the year for both teams. The Rangers are a half-game behind Toronto for the third wild-card spot. It's a chance to take matters into your own hands and bury a direct competitor with less than a month remaining in the regular season. You don't get many chances to do that against a non-division rival in September.
It should be noted the Rangers lead the season series 2-1 over the Blue Jays. At minimum, they want to split the four games in Toronto next week. That would clinch the season series and secure the tiebreaker. In that case, Texas would go to the postseason and the Blue Jays would go home in the event they finish with identical records for the third wild-card spot.
The Red Sox are five games back of a postseason spot, so by time that Sept. 18-20 series rolls around, they might not even be a factor in the wild-card race. Those last two series against the Mariners figure to be important though. As long as the Rangers hang within 3-4 games of Seattle, those last two series give them a chance to jump them for either the AL West title or a wild-card spot.
Texas has done real damage to their postseason odds the last few weeks. According to FanGraphs, their postseason odds peaked at 95.1% on Aug. 15. Now they're down to 47.0%. It is not too late -- not even close to too late, really -- to save their season though. The bullpen has to be better, that's a must, and someone other than Lowe, Seager, and Semien has to contribute offensively. Perhaps top prospect Evan Carter, who is coming up to replace the injured García, will provide a spark.
Next week's series against the Blue Jays is massive. Potentially season-defining. Those last two series with the Mariners could be of paramount importance as well. A lot is going wrong for the Rangers right now -- you don't lose 15 times in 19 games by accident -- but they are still close enough in the division and wild-card races to have a chance. It's on the players to rise to occasion and take advantage, something they have failed to do the last several weeks.
