The Philadelphia Phillies have been on the cusp of very big things the last two seasons. In 2022, they took the Houston Astros to six games in the World Series, then last season they had a 3-2 lead in the NLCS before dropping Games 6 and 7 at home to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Back-to-back pennants were within reach. Instead, the Phillies have a championship-caliber roster that will enter 2024 still searching for a World Series title.
"We've proven you don't have to (win the division to make a deep postseason run), but that is a slippery slope," manager Rob Thomson told the Philadelphia Inquirer in January. "... I don't want people to think -- and players wouldn't think this -- that it's OK to win the wild card, and it's easy to win the wild card, and you're going to go further by winning the wild card ... We're looking to win the division. And to do that, we have to play solid every month out of the year."
Unlike previous offseasons, the Phillies did not make any major free-agent signings or big-ticket additions over the winter. They focused on retaining retaining their players -- Aaron Nola returned on a seven-year, $172 million contract and Zack Wheeler recently agreed to a three-year, $126 million extension -- and tinkering on the margins (Spencer Turnbull, Whit Merrifield, etc.). That's really all they needed to do. The foundation is already in place. Let's now preview the upcoming season in Philadelphia.
Win total projection, odds
- 2023 record: 90-72 (second in NL East, lost NLCS)
- 2024 SportsLine win total over/under: 89.5
- World Series odds (via SportsLine): +1500
Projected lineup
- DH Kyle Schwarber
- SS Trea Turner
- 1B Bryce Harper
- C J.T. Realmuto
- 2B Bryson Stott
- 3B Alec Bohm
- RF Nick Castellanos
- LF Brandon Marsh
- CF Johan Rojas
Marsh had knee surgery last month and recently played in his first spring training game, so it seems he'll be ready in time for Opening Day. Even at full health, Marsh figures to platoon with Merrifield or Cristian Pache. Schwarber's .197 batting average was an eyesore last year, but he had a .343 on-base percentage and he slugged 47 home runs. The guy is a walking 1-0 lead. Otherwise that's the same lineup we saw late last year and into the postseason, and the Phillies were top 10 in just about every significant offensive category in 2023.
Projected rotation
- RHP Zack Wheeler
- RHP Aaron Nola
- LHP Ranger Suárez
- RHP Taijuan Walker
- LHP Cristopher Sánchez
It seems unlikely, though the Blake Snell rumors persist, and I suppose we can never say never when it comes to the Phillies and a big free agent, but this seems like it. As things stand, the Phillies have five very good starters for five rotation spots, though the depth behind them is not great. Turnbull could make spot starts, ditto Kolby Allard and Nick Nelson. Mick Abel, Philadelphia's top healthy prospect, should arrive at some point in 2024, though I would guess the Phillies hope he can spend a few weeks in Triple-A before he's needed.
Projected bullpen
- Closer: LHP José Alvarado
- Setup: RHP Seranthony Domínguez, RHP Jeff Hoffman, LHP Gregory Soto
- Middle: RHP Connor Brogdon, RHP Orion Kerkering, LHP Matt Strahm
- Long: RHP Spencer Turnbull
Thomson has shown a willingness to mix and match his relievers rather than marry them to specific innings, so Alvarado is only loosely labeled the "closer" here. On any given day, Alvarado could face the other team's best hitters in the eighth inning with Domínguez or Soto or whoever pitching the ninth. It's a very good relief corps -- I know we're used to the Phillies having shaky bullpens, but this one should be very good -- one with lots of velocity. One potential issue is a lack of flexibility. Kerkering and Soto are the only two relievers who can be optioned to the minors, so shuttling fresh arms in as needed could be tricky.
Will Turner be better in Year 2?
You know you've set the bar high when you hit .266/.320/.459 with 26 home runs, go a perfect 30 for 30 stealing bases, and have a 3.4 WAR season, and yet a big chunk of the year was spent wondering when you'd get hot. Turner's first year in Philadelphia did not go smoothly, no doubt about it, but the end result was a good and productive season. The before and after:
| PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | 2B | HR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Before Aug. 4 | 484 | .236/.289/.367 | 21 | 10 |
Aug. 4 and later | 211 | .337/.389/.668 | 14 | 16 |
Aug. 4 is the day the Phillies faithful gave Turner a standing ovation amid his hitting struggles. How much did that ovation help Turner? Who really knows. Only he can answer that. What we do is, from that day forward, Turner was one of the best players in baseball. He turned his season around that day and began to make good on the team's 11-year, $300 million investment.
When he's right, Turner is one of the game's most dynamic players. It's speed, it's extra-base hits, it's defense, it's posting up every single day. The Phillies only got that guy for two months last season. The hope is, now that he's got a year under is belt and is more familiar and comfortable with the city and organization, Turner will really settle in be that dynamic all-around player in 2024.
The top of Philadelphia's lineup can be such a nightmare when Turner is at his best. Schwarber and Harper are a threat to hit a ball off the scoreboard every time they come to the plate, and Turner drives pitchers mad when he's on base. His value on the bases transcends his stolen base totals because he is a distraction, and he does force pitchers to pay attention to him.
Point is, Turner had an up-and-down 2023 -- more accurately, it was down then up -- and the Phillies are hoping Year 2 will go a little more smoothly. Turner turns 31 in June, so he's still in his prime, and there are very few players can impact the game in as many ways as him when he's going right. Getting the best version of Turner would essentially be as a roster upgrade.
"I feel like the swing is kind of where it was at the end of last year. I feel like I learned a lot last year and I've kind of carried that over to my work now, and it just feels good," Turner told MLB.com earlier this spring. "... "My body feels good, my defense is feeling really good, swing feels really good in the cage. I just think the work I've done in the offseason has helped me already. I just feel like I'm ahead of where I was at (last spring)."
How much has the defense improved?
It's no secret the Phillies have been a poor defensive team the last few seasons. That was certainly true last year, when Schwarber played 103 games in left field and Harper had to learn first base on the fly. The Phillies finished 27th among all teams with minus-30 defensive runs saved. Outs above average was a bit kinder: minus-3 (18th in MLB).
The personnel has not changed too much but the Phillies could have a much improved defense in 2024. In fact, it was much improved down the stretch last year. Once Harper was cleared to play first base, that took Schwarber out of left field and put him at DH, and Rojas was called up to play center field. That allowed the Phillies to slide Marsh, a very good defender himself, to left.
Look at the defense as the season progressed:
| Outs above average | MLB rank | |
|---|---|---|
April | -3 | 20th |
May | -5 | 25th |
June | +3 | 12th |
July | +1 | 14th |
August | 0 | 18th |
September | +8 | 6th |
The Phillies went from below average defensively in April and May to about average at midseason, to legitimately excellent in September. Now, do I buy the Phillies as a true talent plus-8 outs above average team? No, last September was likely an outlier, though there are reasons to believe this is a league average team defensively. Consider:
- Harper is more comfortable at first base. Not only did he play the position some last year, but he had an entire offseason and now an entire spring training to work there. Last year he picked up first base on the fly.
- Rojas played 59 games last year and started only 40. He is an outstanding defender, legitimately one of the best center fielders in the sport, and now the Phillies will have him in center field for a full season.
- Turner should be more comfortable and settled in too. His defense was a shaky at times early last season, then, much like his bat, improved down the stretch. He should be better in 2024.
- Schwarber won't play the outfield at all. He tries his best, but the man is an awful defender.
With their new defensive alignment, can the Phillies be a league average team defensively across a full 162 games in 2024? Can they be even better than that? League average would qualify as an upgrade for this club. Good defense helps in so many ways too. It means more balls in play converted into outs, fewer pitches for your pitchers, a less taxed bullpen, on and on.
It's hard to change the narrative, defensively. Once you're labeled a good defender or poor defender, the label tends to stick, and the Phillies earned the poor defensive team label over the last few seasons. Things are changing though. I don't think Philadelphia will be a great team defensively, but I do think they'll be much better than people may realize.
What would make for a successful season?
The Phillies' championship window is as open as it gets. The "World Series or bust" mentality is a recipe for disappointment, but that is where the Phillies are these days, right? I'm not sure another NLCS trip or even a pennant without a ring would feel satisfying. The core players are in their primes -- Alvarado, Harper, Nola, Realmuto, Schwarber, Turner, Wheeler -- so this is it. This is the time to win. The Phillies got close the last two years and now it's time to get over the hump.
