Hello, everybody, it's Tom Fornelli, and I have returned from my vacation. It was nice to take a week off, though. To be fair, it wasn't as much of a vacation as a week where I didn't have to work. I had plenty of other life stuff that needed to be accomplished, but I did find time for one monumental life achievement.
I played a round of golf for the first time in my life. I began taking lessons in late April and have spent a lot of time at the driving range when I can, but I finally went out and played actual golf on Friday. And you know what? The lessons worked. I shot a 107 and only lost one ball. I even made my first par.
Not bad for the first time out. As for when my second will be, I've already got a tee time booked for Tuesday. Now that I know what I'm doing, I should probably shoot around 65 or so.
- The top 20 MLB trade candidates.
- Speaking of trades, the Mets aren't likely to move either of their expensive starting pitchers.
- The Buffalo Bills have already lost an RB for the season due to a jet ski accident.
- Saudi Arabia has made a $1 billion offer for Kylian Mbappe.
All right, let's bet on some baseball to tide us over until tomorrow's tee time.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Orioles at Phillies, 6:40 p.m. | TV: ESPN+
- Key Trend: The over is 27-17-5 in Baltimore's road games this season.
- The Pick: Over 9.5 (-110)
I get the sense we're due for a high-scoring affair in Philly this evening. Not only do the weather conditions play to our advantage, but the pitching matchup also works in our favor.
We'll start with the weather. It'll be hot and humid in Philadelphia tonight because it's late July, and that's how things usually work. Thankfully, for those in attendance, a strong breeze will be blowing to help keep them cool. Unfortunately for the pitchers, that breeze will be blowing out around 10 mph.
Then there's tonight's pitching matchup. Baltimore's Dean Kremer is 10-4 on the year, but he's won all those games despite having a 4.80 ERA. Kremer has allowed at least four runs in eight of his 20 starts, but the Orioles have averaged 5.3 runs in those starts and scored at least four runs in 14. Kremer doesn't strike out many hitters, and the contact he allows tends to be airborne. Oh, and lefties have an OPS of .912 against him with 13 home runs.
That's good news for Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, whom you may consider taking dinger props on.
As for the other side, Cristopher Sanchez has been good for Philly in only 35 1/3 innings. He has a 3.06 ERA, thanks to excellent control and a lot of groundball contact. However, I'm always wary of anybody who allows a lot of contact against MLB hitters, and it's no surprise Sanchez has allowed five home runs in only 35 1/3 innings. When hitters get the ball in the air against him, it goes a long way, and Baltimore has crushed lefties this season.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model has a slight lean on the over in this one tonight, but SportsLine's Micah Roberts has a play posted on the money line.
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💰The Picks
⚾ MLB
Reds at Brewers, 8:10 p.m | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Reds (-105) -- This is the first game of a crucial series in the NL Central. The Brewers enter the series a half game ahead of Cincinnati in the division thanks in large part to a three-game sweep of the Reds to start the second half of the season. This three-game series in Milwaukee will be the final three games they face one another this year unless they meet in the playoffs. It's a huge series.
And it's one I like Cincinnati in. Yes, the Brewers swept the Reds last week, but the Brewers' offense has been in a huge funk since. Despite going 3-3 in their last six, Milwaukee has a wOBA of .267 over the last week, which ranks 29th among 30 teams. Meanwhile, the Reds are red-hot, having won five straight, including a sweep of Arizona that saw Cincinnati score 20 runs in three games. Tonight's pitching matchup shouldn't scare either offense, so give me the one that's already seeing the ball well over the offense that looks lost.
Cardinals at Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Arizona F5 (-130) -- The Cardinals insist on sending Adam Wainwright to the mound, and whether it's out of a sense of loyalty for all he's done or they're openly tanking, I will continue fading the Redbirds whenever they do. Wainwright has been an incredible pitcher throughout his career, but he's a glorified batting practice instructor this year. Waino has an ERA of 7.66 and an absurdly low strikeout rate of 11%.
Not only does he not miss bats, but dang near every piece of contact against him is loud. He's given up 10 dingers in only 51 2/3 innings, and hitters have a barrel rate of 11.7% against him. Yeah, Arizona was swept by Cincinnati, but it was its pitching that failed it. The offense was fine and should continue to rake against Waino, so let's take the DBacks in the first five innings. I don't hate an Arizona to win the first three innings bet, either.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Lionel Messi is back in action with Inter Miami on Tuesday, and SportsLine's Brandt Sutton has shared all his favorite plays for the Leagues Cup match against Atlanta United.
