It has been nine years since the Pittsburgh Pirates last qualified for the postseason and 11 years since the Pirates last scored a run in the postseason. This will be the club's fifth year under GM Ben Cherington and they call it a five-year plan for a reason: if it takes longer than five years to get a franchise on track, things have gone wrong. That's where the Pirates are entering 2024.
"We have to keep working at (getting better). We can't take anything for granted," Cherington told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review last month. "We'll keep working at it both in terms of how do we help our current group take steps and put them in the position to perform, and we'll also look to see if there are ways to continue to make the roster deeper and better with external additions. We do feel like we're better. But the proof is in the pudding. We gotta go play and go do it on the field. We're excited about that."
A year ago, the Pirates won 76 games, their most since an 82-79 finish in 2018, and you can see the makings of the next contending team taking shape. Ke'Bryan Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, and now Mitch Keller are signed long-term, former No. 1 pick Henry Davis arrived last year, Oneil Cruz is fully healthy following last year's ankle injury, and more young talent is coming. Things are starting to come together. Enough to contend in 2024? We'll find out. Let's preview the upcoming season in Pittsburgh.
Win total projection, odds
- 2023 record: 76-86 (fourth in NL Central)
- 2024 SportsLine win total over/under: 75.5
- World Series odds (via SportsLine): +20000
Projected lineup
- SS Oneil Cruz, LHB
- LF Bryan Reynolds, SHB
- 3B Ke-Bryan Hayes, RHB
- DH Andrew McCutchen, RHB
- RF Jack Suwinski, LHB
- C Henry Davis, RHB
- 1B Rowdy Tellez, LHB
- CF Michael A. Taylor, RHB
- 2B Jared Triolo, 2B
An Achilles injury ended McCutchen's season on Sept. 4 last year and he enters 2024 with 299 career home runs. He's coming up on a significant milestone. Manager Derek Shelton could cycle through several iterations at the top of the lineup, with McCutchen as the best candidate to replace Cruz in the leadoff spot. Connor Joe looms as a righty hitting platoon option, and the Pirates have some depth in Triple-A, namely infielder and 2020 No. 7 draft pick Nick Gonzales. There is an actual upside to this lineup. Will it be one of the best in baseball? Almost certainly not. Will it be more entertaining than in years past? Absolutely.
Projected rotation
- RHP Mitch Keller
- LHP Martín Pérez
- LHP Marco Gonzales
- RHP Luis L. Ortiz
- RHP Jared Jones
Righty Roansy Contreras and lefties Josh Fleming and Bailey Falter are out of minor league options (they must pass through waivers to go to Triple-A) and loom as alternatives to Jones, who has stood out this spring and seems to be the favorite for the No. 5 spot. Pérez is on a one-year contract and Gonzales is entering the last guaranteed year on his contract. They are this year's Rich Hill, veterans who can take the ball every fifth day in the first half, then get flipped at the trade deadline so the Pirates can give a younger pitcher a look in the second half. Pittsburgh also has Domingo Germán in camp on a minor-league contract.
Projected bullpen
- Closer: RHP David Bednar
- Setup: LHP Aroldis Chapman, RHP Colin Holderman
- Middle: LHP Ryan Borucki, RHP Roansy Contreras, RHP Carmen Mlodzinski
- Long: LHP Bailey Falter, LHP Josh Fleming
Bednar is outstanding. The Pittsburgh native is a two-time All-Star -- he wasn't the token Pirates representative in 2022 or 2023, he deserved to be there -- and he's been one of the best relievers in the sport the last three seasons. He is three years away from free agency, and I'm curious to see how Cherington & Co. handle things. Lock Bednar up long-term? Let him play out his team control years? Entertain trade offers while his value is sky high? Chapman is a rollercoaster but Holderman is sneaky good. If the Pirates have a lead after seven innings, they turn the game over to legitimate high-leverage arms.
How long until Skenes arrives?
This is the No. 1 question in PiratesLand. Paul Skenes, the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft, has already been told he will begin this season in the minors, which is not unreasonable. The 21-year-old has only 6 2/3 professional innings under his belt and there are a few things he can improve, specifically refining his changeup into a reliable third offering.
Our R.J. Anderson ranked Skenes the top pitching prospect in baseball and the No. 10 prospect overall entering the spring. Here's his write-up:
Skenes went No. 1 in July's draft on the basis of his power arsenal and his proximity to the majors. His fastball clocked in around 98 mph during a late-season appearance in the Florida State League, and his slider has proven to be an effective chase offering. Turns out he didn't strike out nearly 48% of the batters he faced during SEC play by accident. Even so, Skenes was more polarizing in scouting circles than the above information indicates. His fastball's shape has "dead zone" properties, a fancy way of saying it's easier to track because of a similar amount of vertical and horizontal movement. That blemish won't keep Skenes from having a big-league career -- Nathan Eovaldi and Hunter Greene both have "dead zone" fastballs -- but it may cause his fastball to be less effective than it should be based on pure velocity.
Baseball has collectively shifted away from using high draft picks on pitchers because of the inherent injury risk, but the Pirates are never going to win a free-agent bidding war for a Gerrit Cole or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They have to grow their own aces, so they took the plunge and selected Skenes with the No. 1 pick with the expectation he would be an impact pitcher and soon.
The guess here -- and I emphasize this is only a guess -- is Skenes will make his major league debut sometime in May. Figure 8-10 Triple-A starts to round into form and gradually build up his pitch count, then turn him loose on the NL Central. That's essentially the Stephen Strasburg plan (Strasburg made 11 minor league starts before being called up in 2010, the year after he was drafted). There's no need to waste more bullets than that in the minors. It's not his time yet, but Skenes isn't far away from helping the Pirates at all.
What's the plan with Davis?
The Pirates used the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft on Davis, a bat-first college catcher who barely caught during his 62-game MLB debut last summer. Two innings. That's it. The Pirates primarily played Davis in right field and it seemed like that was again going to be the plan in 2024, but top catching prospect Endy Rodríguez hurt his elbow in winter ball, creating a need behind the plate.
Yasmani Grandal, brought in to be a veteran stopgap, has barely played this spring because of plantar fasciitis. The Pirates have run out of excuses to not play Davis behind the plate, and he's played plenty behind the plate this spring. He's also showcased big power and exit velocities, not that power and hard-hit ability was in question. All in all, it's been a good spring for Davis.
Regardless of position, the Pirates need Davis to be an impact hitter as they transition out of this rebuild and into contention. He flashed potential last season, though it wasn't a great MLB debut overall (.213/.302/.351), and the bat needs to take a step forward this year. Davis will always be a bat-first player. If he can do it at catcher, great. If he's an outfielder, fine. Davis just needs to hit.
What would make for a successful season?
A winning record and hanging around the wild-card race deep into September. On the field, that's a reasonable goal. Win more games than you lose and play meaningful baseball games all year. In the big picture, the Pirates want to see Hayes build on his great second half last season, young foundational pieces like Cruz and Davis and Skenes establish themselves, and others like Gonzales, Jones, Ortiz, and Peguero take that next step. It's a development year, sure, but it's also time for the Pirates to show something and move up the standings.
