Spring training has begun and although several big-name free agents remain unsigned -- Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell -- it's not too early to look ahead to next offseason's free agent class. That one will include Corbin Burnes and Juan Soto, most notably, and also New York Mets slugger Pete Alonso. He's entering his contract year.
"I think that's probably the most likely outcome," Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said Monday when asked whether Alonso will hit free agency.
The Mets and Alonso have discussed an extension at various points in the past year or two. However, nothing has come together, and it seems unlikely the two sides will agree to an extension before Opening Day. Keep in mind Alonso is a Scott Boras client. Boras typically takes his top clients into free agency (but not always) rather than sign extensions.
Alonso, 29, swatted 46 home runs in 154 games last year. However, he also set new career worsts (excluding the shortened 2020 season) in batting average (.217), on-base percentage (.318), slugging percentage (.504), and average exit velocity (89.5 mph). Alonso did return from a bone bruise in his wrist well ahead of schedule, so perhaps playing hurt dragged down his numbers.
On one hand, Alonso is one of the game's great power hitters and signing him long-term seems like a no-brainer, particularly for a team with deep pockets like the Mets. On the other hand, there are valid baseball reasons for the Mets to let the season play out and see where things stand in nine months rather than give Alonso an extension now.
With that in mind, here are three reasons the Mets should extend Alonso now (or at least before Opening Day) and three reasons they should remain patient, and let the 2024 season play out.
Three reasons to extend Alonso
1. Good luck replacing his production. Even in this launch angle-obsessed era, 40-homer bats are in short supply, and Alonso is one of them. He will play the entire 2024 season at age 29 and will be 30 on Opening Day 2025. Alonso should still have several peak years remaining. Although the Mets are in something of a quasi-rebuild -- a transitional year, if you will -- it shouldn't take that long to return to contention, given Steve Cohen's resources and the expanded postseason format. Alonso is a one-swing game-changer who should still be in his prime when the Mets return to the postseason. Bottom line, Alonso is one of the very best power hitters in the game and it's really, really hard to replace that.
2. He's the face of the franchise. Francisco Lindor is the team's best all-around player, but Alonso is the face of the Mets. He is their most popular player since David Wright, and he so clearly loves being a Met as he has embraced the franchise. On that note, Alonso is two years (or one really great year) away from becoming the Mets' all-time home run king. Here's the leaderboard:
- Darryl Strawberry: 252
- David Wright: 242
- Mike Piazza: 220
- Howard Johnson: 192
- Pete Alonso: 192
Considering Alonso has averaged -- averaged -- 45 home runs per 162 games, it seems likely he'll break Strawberry's record sometime around the 2025 All-Star break. What's the value of that? I don't know exactly, but I don't think it's zero. The Mets will sell more tickets and more merchandise, both short-term (as Alonso chases the record) and long-term (when they retire his number, etc.).
Anyway, what good is having a cartoonishly rich owner if you won't re-sign such a popular and productive player? Alonso making big money during his decline years will barely put a dent in Steve Cohen's bottom line.
3. The price could go up. The Mets only need to look across town at how costly a big contract year can be. Aaron Judge rejected a $230.5 million extension from the New York Yankees in spring training 2022, then he went out and hit 62 home runs and won MVP. A few weeks later, Judge signed a $360 million contract. That is an extreme case, but Alonso is an elite power hitter, and power pays. A big contract year could inflate his asking price. Remember, it only takes one desperate team to make a big free-agent offer and completely blow up a player's market.
Three reasons not to extend Alonso
1. It's an unforgiving profile. The track record of right-handed hitting and right-handed throwing first basemen is very harsh. Those guys must hit and hit a lot to stay in the league. To be fair to Alonso, he has proven himself to be closer to José Abreu and Paul Konerko than, say, C.J. Cron and Ty France, but the fact of the matter is this profile typically does not age gracefully. Only 12 right/right first basemen have put up even 10 WAR after turning 30 in the Wild Card era. Last year was Alonso's worst 162-game season, and there are concerns about this profile in the long term.
2. The market could bring his price down. Sure, Alonso could go all Aaron Judge and have a historic contract year that raises his price. The more likely outcome is he finds the free agent market not especially welcoming and his asking price ultimately has to come down. No first baseman has signed a $200 million contract since Miguel Cabrera in 2014 and only two have gotten even $150 million since Chris Davis in 2016. Here are the four nine-figure first baseman contracts since Davis' deal:
| Signed | Years | Dollars | |
|---|---|---|---|
March 2022 | 8 | $168 million | |
March 2022 | 6 | $162 million | |
Feb. 2018 | 8 | $144 million | |
March 2019 | 5 | $130 million |
Olson signed his contract a few weeks before his 28th birthday, so he was a year younger then than Alonso is now. Goldschmidt's extension began in his age 32 season, hence the shorter term. And as good as Alonso is, he's not Freeman. Is Alonso really going to get $200 million next offseason when Freeman, the superior pure hitter and defender, could not? It seems unlikely. The market just isn't very kind to first basemen. Not since Cabrera, Albert Pujols, and Prince Fielder got huge deals a decade ago.
3. The Mets could get a lot in a trade. Probably less than you might expect (see: the Corbin Burnes trade), but a lot. If Alonso leaves as a free agent next offseason, the Mets would only receive a compensation draft pick after the fourth round, given their competitive balance tax status. They could surely beat that return on the trade market. Trading Alonso would be a deeply unpopular move with the fan base and the kind of move Stearns may never live down (like Chaim Bloom trading Mookie Betts), but if the Mets are out of the race and not going to extend Alonso, trading him at the deadline is the smart baseball move.
Speaking as a baseball fan, I like watching great players spend their entire careers with one team, and Alonso has a chance to go down as the greatest Mets hitter in history. He should crush Strawberry's home run record as long as he re-signs, plus he's so popular with the fan base. Sure, there are valid baseball reasons to let Alonso leave, but Cohen can easily absorb any downside financially. Watching a great player spend his entire career wearing your uniform and your uniform only is uniquely rewarding, and the Mets should exhaust every extension possibly with Alonso before allowing him to leave either via trade or free agency.
