Good afternoon fellow gamblers, it's Chris Bengel back with you on this Tuesday. The NBA playoffs got underway over the weekend and they've been nothing short of chaotic thus far.
One of the most intriguing storylines has been some of the league's younger players blossoming into stars before our very eyes. Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey and Golden State Warriors guard Jordan Poole have been on an absolute tear in their respective teams' first two games of the opening round. Because of that, the Sixers and Warriors have jumped out to early 2-0 series leads and could be well on their way to advancing in dominant fashion.
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With more NBA action on tap this evening, I've got you covered with three NBA picks. Let's not waste any time and jump right into the picks!
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
The Hot Ticket
- Key Trend: The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home favorite
- The Pick: Heat -7.5 (-110)
The Heat couldn't have started off their opening round series in better fashion. It was complete and utter domination over the Hawks in Game 1 thanks to a very balanced scoring effort. It also didn't hurt that Miami shot shot nearly 50 percent from three throughout the game.
While I don't expect a 24-point win again in Game 2, I do believe that the Heat can cover the spread this time around as well. The Heat own a 7-1 record ATS over their last eight games while also having a 5-1 mark in games following an ATS win. During the regular season, the Heat were victorious in three of the four matchups against the Hawks and won each game by an average of 11.3 points.
I also don't expect Trae Young to finish with just 8 points on 1-of-12 shooting like he did earlier in the series, but I just don't think the Hawks have a strong enough supporting cast to take some of the pressure off of their sharpshooting point guard. The Heat possess a much-more balanced roster and we saw that come to fruition in Game 1.
More NBA Picks
The Pick: Under 240.5 points (-110): -- Game 1 produced an offensive showcase with the Timberwolves pulling off the surprising 130-117 victory. The Timberwolves and Grizzlies were the top two scoring teams throughout the regular season as both averaged at least 115.6 points-per-game. While it wouldn't shock anyone to see that happen again, I truly believe that the under is where the money should be in this matchup.
Over the Grizzlies' past seven games, the under in 5-2 when Memphis is the favorite. In addition, the under is 34-16 in the Grizzlies' last 50 home games against a team with a losing road record. Throughout the 2021-22 season, the Timberwolves were 21-21 on the road.
The Timberwolves received huge performances from Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards while also receiving a lift from their bench. However, I don't expect Malik Beasley and Jaden McDaniels to combine for 38 points off the bench in Game 2. It also didn't help that the Grizzlies didn't get much production from one of their most important players in big man Jaren Jackson Jr. Jackson had a pedestrian 4-of-13 shooting performance and secured just four rebounds in Game 1. If the Grizzlies have a better showing on the defensive end of the floor, I expect the under to cash.
Key Trend: The under is 6-1 in the Grizzlies last seven games against a team with a winning record
The Pick: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 38.5 Points, Assists, and Rebounds (-130) -- It's no secret that Towns is one of the premier big men that the NBA has to offer. With that in mind, I would've expected this number to be substantially larger than it is. However, the name of the game is pouncing on sportsbooks when they post a slightly smaller line and that's what we have here.
If this were just points and rebounds for Towns at 38.5, then it may be a sweat the majority of the time. Instead, you're getting the 38.5 number with assists piled on top of it. Sure, Towns isn't going to be dishing out six or seven assists most nights, but the Timberwolves center averaged 3.6 assists-per-game during the regular season. Towns has had at least 39 points, rebounds and assists in four of his last five games. In addition, Towns has recorded at least three assists in six of his last seven contests. It does seem like a crime that the number is this low, but we'll gladly take it.
Key Trend: Towns has had at least 39 points, assists, and rebounds in four of his last five games