The most fun part of the NBA Draft isn't the sure thing. When there's simply no debate about a player -- Will this high school kid named LeBron James go No. 1 overall and become a star? -- it can take the air out of the top of the draft.
For this draft, there's still some intrigue at the top. Will Markelle Fultz go to the Boston Celtics, as everyone expects? Or will the Celtics trade the pick? Will Lonzo Ball or, as I argued earlier this week, De'Aaron Fox some day become better NBA point guard than Fultz? Can a surprise player -- like, say, Florida State's Jonathan Isaac -- sneak into the top three?
But I don't think making predictions about the top of NBA drafts is nearly as fun as guessing who may be the diamond in the rough. Cool that you predicted 2012 No. 1 pick Anthony Davis as a future All-Star; so did everybody. But if you were the guy who thought Draymond Green, selected 35th in that same draft, would be a star, then hey -- you have my undying respect and admiration as a basketball mind. Big stinking deal if you thought Kyrie Irving was going to be the star of the 2011 draft. But Real Actual Enormous Props if the names that jumped out to you during that draft were Jimmy Butler (the 30th pick) or Isaiah Thomas (the 60th pick).
It's like when you fill out NCAA Tournament brackets every March. If you had Villanova beating North Carolina for the title back in 2016, congrats -- you probably won some money. You also picked a No. 1 seed and a No. 2 seed for your title game, so whoop-dee-doo. But if you had an inkling that Michigan State was going to fall to Middle Tennessee in the first round in what was perhaps the biggest upset in NCAA Tournament history? Wow, dude. You called it.
This is all a really long and convoluted way of getting to my point: Yes, Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball or De'Aaron Fox or Jayson Tatum have a great chance at some day soon becoming NBA stars. But I'm less intrigued by them as by the guys we're not talking about. I want to know which second-round pick might have a chance of surprising us all. I want to know the answer to the infinitely more difficult questions: Who is the Isaiah Thomas of this draft? Who is the Malcolm Brogdon of this draft? Who is the Jordan Clarkson of this draft?
And I keep coming back to Villanova's versatile senior wing, Josh Hart.
A four-year college career like Hart's is a rarity in the age of one-and-dones. Here's his career arc: Freshman reserve on a talented and experienced team, then the Big East Sixth Man of the Year (and Big East tournament MVP) as a sophomore, then the leading scorer for a national championship team during his junior year, then a legit collegiate star and first-team All-American by his senior year.
As a senior he was ridiculous across the board, averaging 18.7 points, 6.4 rebounds and 2.9 assists while shooting upward of 40 percent from 3 and consistently playing elite defense. Whenever Villanova needed a stop on defense late in a game, there was Hart, locking down the other team's best player. When both of Villanova's big men were out in a game at Xavier this year, Hart played the five. He had his lowest scoring output of the season -- but had seven rebounds, five assists and four steals. When Villanova was down 11 to Notre Dame this year, Hart took over the game, scoring a career-high 37 points. He can fill whatever need a coach has.
Advanced stats gurus in college hoops love the guy. Last season Hart was ranked No. 1 in KenPom.com's Player of the Year standings. It's an efficiency-based metric that deigns to determine how valuable a player is to his team on a per-minute basis. During his junior season he was ranked fifth (it should be noted that Brogdon ranked second that same year). And guess who was tops in that rating system back in 2011-12, when Anthony Davis of Kentucky tore up college basketball but was only ranked fourth in KenPom.com's player of the year rankings? Yep -- it was Draymond Green.
Simply put, even if he doesn't jump out of the gym athletically, the young man does absolutely everything you need to do to succeed at the NBA level. The best phrase to describe Hart as a basketball player isn't "long and athletic," or "freakishly high ceiling." It's "valuable to a winning team."
"He's just so complete as a player," Villanova coach Jay Wright told me the other day. "He's so valuable to a basketball team. It can be hard to describe that because there's not a specific position for that type of intangible skill, but the guys who do the drafting, they like that."
When Hart starts getting looks from teams toward the end of the first round, will they be hoping for a star? Of course not. I think they'll be aiming for a Brogdon: A player who is valuable, who is versatile, who is mature, who plays hard on both ends, and who has shown the character to be a low-risk endeavor for an NBA team.
Hart is an Eagle Scout who attended the same prestigious D.C.-area private school as President Barack Obama's daughters. Growing up, his dad would take him to playgrounds after dark, shine his truck's high beams on the court and put up shots with him until nearly midnight; Wright saw that work ethic throughout Hart's Villanova career.
Hart is a young man whose strong character was formed at a young age: When he was a high school freshman, his family's home burned down, and they had to start over together in a two-bedroom apartment. When he transferred from a public school to an elite private school, he struggled so much academically that he was kicked out of the private school. But instead of giving up, he doubled down, lobbying his way back into the school and then studying four to six hours a day until his grades were up. At Villanova he became the most underrated star in all of college basketball as a junior, leading the Wildcats to their first-ever No. 1 ranking and a national title. By his senior year, he was finally recognized as one of the best players in all of college basketball.
And yet as he heads to the NBA there are still the doubters. He's not an elite athlete, they say. He's not a natural fit for any one position in the NBA, they say. He's 22 years old when the top prospects in this draft are all teenagers, they say.
To which I say: Whatever. Let me introduce you to Brogdon. Perhaps you've heard of Draymond Green. Paul Millsap was a little-heralded second-rounder too, you know. And Jae Crowder developed late, later finding NBA success as a senior drafted in the second round.
"He matured in every way (in his four years at college) -- emotionally, mentally, physically," Wright said. "He's got such a high emotional IQ now, and he's physically ready to come into the NBA and play in that league. That's the advantage of a four-year guy. He can impact right away. He can add maturity to a young team, or he can fit in with veterans on a successful team."
So you can tell me all you want about how the guys at the top of these draft boards will become stars at the next level. Cool. You're probably right, but I'm definitely not impressed. Tell me who the diamond in the rough is, though, and I'll salute you. And don't be surprised when, a few years from now, we're including Hart on the lists that also include Brogdon, Green, and Crowder.
