At midnight on July 1, the NBA free agency floodgates will officially open. That's when teams can start talking to players, and there's a handful of huge names on the market this summer -- one of which is already on the move with the reported trade of Chris Paul to the Houston Rockets. Paul is a free agent, but according to Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical, he'll opt-in with the Clippers to get the max money and then be dealt to Houston.
So far the Clippers seem set to blow it up with Blake Griffin and J.J. Redick also free agents.
Griffin has been talked about as a possibility in Boston, which has its eyes set on Gordon Hayward. There are is a big domino effect seemingly waiting to happen on Hayward's decision, as that could influence the futures of Paul George and Griffin and a whole host of others. Let's get to it with the biggest questions remaining in this sure-to-be wild period of NBA free agency and trades.
Where will Paul George end up?
It's a good bet he's gone from Indiana, which knows he's going to leave in 2018 anyway and doesn't want to lose him for nothing. At this point, it's just a matter of who comes to the table with the best offer for what could be just a one-year rental of George. Boston has appeared reluctant to give up a valuable package of assets for George considering it could only have him for a year, but on Tuesday Adrian Wojnarowski of The Vertical reported that the Celtics are indeed trying to put together a trade for George with the increased hope that it could convince him to stay long term.
George has made it clear that he prefers to be in Los Angeles, but a lot of teams have still been rumored to be interested in his services, for obvious reasons. George is a two-way superstar, and a team like the Celtics -- or the Wizards, as John Wall sees it -- would become an immediate threat to win the Eastern Conference and realistically compete for a championship with him on board. But for Boston, it's not just about George. There appears to be a bigger move in play here. Which brings us to ...
What will Gordon Hayward do?
In that same Wojnarowski report, it was indicated that Boston is trying to add both George and Hayward, which would definitely makes them a championship contender. The sticky part is they want to sign Hayward before they give up the assets for George. Hayward will take a meeting with Boston and Miami to start his free agency process, and will likely have no shortage of suitors, including the Jazz, who will certainly offer him the max to stay.
By the time Hayward makes his decision, George could well be gone. Indiana is understandably antsy, and though no team appears to have as enticing a package to offer as the Celtics do, the Pacers can't wait forever. Any one of several teams could come out of nowhere and make an offer the Pacers can't risk losing. As soon as Hayward or George moves, a domino effect could begin. Speaking of ...
What about Blake Griffin?
Griffin has also been tied to Boston as a backup plan to Hayward, and could still pair nicely with George and Al Horford at the five, though that's not his optimal spot. The Celtics could sign Griffin and Hayward if George falls through, but it would take some roster maneuvering to get two likely max free agents under the cap.
Griffin is interesting because he might not be quite as valuable as he is good, if that makes sense. He's a big-time scorer and rebounder and a borderline superstar through a certain lens, but he's not terribly versatile on either end and his range does not extend to the 3-point line, and those two things are so huge for forwards in today's game. Can you build a title team around Griffin? Probably not. Can he be the second-best player on a title team? So far, that hasn't worked either, but the Clippers as a whole have kind of been the the collective embodiment of Griffin's lacking versatility. Perhaps that's why Paul is gone to Houston.
Wanna know Jerry West's influence on the Clippers? You're seeing it. He was not in favor of the "just bring everyone back" plan.
— Ramona Shelburne (@ramonashelburne) June 28, 2017
Do the Clippers re-sign Griffin after Paul left, and take DeAndre Jordan off the trade block? Or do thy fully finally break it up?
Will Kyle Lowry stay in Toronto?
For a minute, Philadelphia seemed like a real possibility -- then they drafted Markelle Fultz. Lowry is going to get a max deal, and while Philly would still benefit greatly from having him, particularly next year as Fultz develops, that's a lot of money to invest in a guy who probably won't be around when your team actually becomes a threat, and will steal minutes and experience from the guys who likely will.
Lowry isn't Chris Paul, but he's an All-Star and in the right circumstances could make championship-level contributions; that would likely be true in a place like San Antonio, which was also reported to be interested in the now Houston-bound Paul. It seems more and more likely Lowry will stay in Toronto, which also has a decision to make on Serge Ibaka.
So if the Spurs don't get Lowry, with Tony Parker out until probably January next year, who are they looking at for point guard?
Derrick Rose? Seriously?
The Spurs reportedly have "strong interest" in Rose if they can figure out how to clear the cap space. Look, clearing cap space for Chris Paul would've been one thing, but going out of your way to acquire Derrick Rose? That feels like a stretch.
To be fair, Rose was as good as he has been since his injuries last year. For starters, he played in 64 games and scored 18 points per game on near 50-percent shooting. He looked pretty explosive at times going to the rim, but he is really ball-dominant for that Spurs system, and he continues to be an atrocious 3-point shooter -- less than 22 percent from the arc last season. This would be a surprise, but keep an eye out nonetheless. It wouldn't be the first time the Spurs found gold in a player whose best days seemed to be behind him.
It was reported that Rose might be willing to take less money to stay with the Knicks, though they just drafted Frank Ntilikina out of France, Rose's likely successor at point guard. Not to mention that was before the Knicks cut ties with Phil Jackson on Wednesday. Frankly, Rose probably won't be around once the Knicks get good, if that ever happens, and chances are Carmelo Anthony won't either. Rose they can let walk. Melo is a different story, as we're about to get into.
Will Carmelo Anthony finally leave New York?
It seems like we've been asking this question for five years now, and he always sticks around. He has a no-trade clause, which complicates things because the few teams he would consider going to would probably have to give up an awful lot to get him, and that doesn't help anyone but the Knicks. And it may happen again now that Jackson is out the door a day after Melo was reportedly trying to engage the Knicks in talks to buy him out, which would cost New York close to $60 million.
This clearly isn't ideal for the Knicks, and at this point, we don't know what the new basketball czar in New York will do with Melo and the dumpster fire that is the Knicks. If a buyout does happen under a Jackson-less front office, both Melo and Dwyane Wade have been linked to the Cavs, who are also trying to get George.
Who's going to overpay for Paul Millsap?
Paul Millsap is a really good player, an All-Star the last four seasons, so whoever gives him the max deal he will almost certainly get will not be getting a bust by any stretch. But for upwards of $30 million a year, Millsap is not a No. 1 option and is not going to play to that kind of contract, especially not toward the end of the deal when he'll be north of 35 years old and a salary-cap anchor making that kind of money.
The Celtics are currently paying Al Horford around $27 million a year, and while Horford remains a good player, we saw all year and particularly against the Cavs in the playoffs that he's more of a great supporting piece than a true max player; again, don't confuse guys on max or near-max deals for being a max-type player. It's two different things these days. At this point, Millsap is probably a better player than Horford, but on a true championship team he is probably a No. 3 option.
Millsap would definitely help a team like the Rockets, who just traded for Chris Paul, but think about what that means for a team like Houston. First, you have to let go of more productive players, and then you still have to give Millsap over $100 million. Does he really put Houston, as a No. 3 option to James Harden and Chris Paul, over the hump? That's a lot of money to pay someone over the next four years when even his ceiling-level production, which is about to start declining in all likelihood, likely isn't enough to make a championship difference.
Who's going to overpay for Serge Ibaka?
Take everything you just read about Millsap and apply it to Ibaka, who has turned into a nice 3-point shooter and remains a solid, if unspectacular, defender. But is he going to make max-money impact? Think about what he did in Toronto with two legit All-Stars next to him in Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Yeah, he was solid on paper -- averaging 15 points and nearly seven boards in 56 games. But realistically, the Raptors are no closer to competing for a championship than they were before they got Ibaka.
Toronto's in a tight spot because there may not be anyone who can replace Ibaka for less money, and if they retain Lowry, they definitely have to stay in win-now mode. This is how you end up in bad contracts.
Will Andre Iguodala leave the Warriors?
A few weeks ago, this would've been a dumb question. No way is Iguodala leaving a budding dynasty. But now there is talk that several teams will be vying for his services, and suddenly he's not ruling it out, perhaps because there has been talk of someone offering him in the neighborhood of $20 million a year, which the Warriors probably wouldn't be able to come close to matching.
Iguodala remains a productive player, but at this point you're taking a big risk paying him that kind of money when we really have no idea how he'd fare without that system and those players surrounding him. He's never been a knock-down shooter, but he's been big in the biggest moments for Golden State, which provides guys like Iguodala and Draymond Green to be the best shooting versions of themselves with all the space created by Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson.
Can he do that elsewhere?
For $20 million a year, frankly, he better do that and more.
Iguodala can still be an elite defensive player for stretches, but not consistently, and again, while that's not a problem for the Warriors, who only ask him to turn back the clock on defense here and there and for stretches during the playoffs, other teams will need a lot more out of him. The smart money seems to still be on Iguodala re-signing with Golden State, but all money talks, smart or otherwise. If he really gets a huge offer, the Warriors would definitely be losing a lot if he left.
