It wasn't a shock that the New York Giants selected Daniel Jones in the first round of the NFL Draft Thursday night. It was one of the worst-kept secrets in the weeks leading up to the draft that the Giants liked Jones a lot. The surprise was that they took him at No. 6, with the first of their two Round 1 picks. We can't know for sure, but there's a decent chance the Giants could have taken somebody like Josh Allen at No. 6 and then used the No. 17 pick (the one they got from Cleveland in the Odell Beckham trade) on Jones, or at least used the pick to trade up and get Jones with an earlier pick if they felt the need to do so.
Considering the only other QB selected between No. 6 and 17 was Dwayne Haskins at 15 to the Redskins, and it wasn't a secret that Washington -- particularly owner Daniel Snyder -- wanted Haskins, the Giants might have been able to sit at 17 and get Jones. The truth is, we'll never know. Maybe the Bengals, Broncos or Dolphins would've taken Jones first. Or perhaps a team like the Chargers, who need to find a successor for Philip Rivers at some point, would have swooped in and made a deal to land him. That's the mystery of the draft, and because of that, even if the consensus is the Giants severely overreached on Jones if he was the guy they wanted, they got him and paid the price they felt they must to make sure they got him.
But, man, was it an overreach. The odds that Jones was the second QB taken were +700 a couple weeks before the draft, and even though they dropped to +440 by Thursday, it's clear the pick was still a surprise to the vast majority of people. And it's not that I want to pile on the Giants when so many already are, but there's nothing that suggests Daniel Jones will live up to his draft slot.
First of all, I released my QB rankings earlier this week for the 2019 draft class. It's a ranking I've done for years that doesn't utilize my personal opinion but instead relies on the quarterback's numbers from college in situations that most closely resemble what life in the NFL will be like. How they performed against top defenses, in third-and-long situations, and in the red zone. Of the 16 QBs I ranked in this year's class, Jones finished 13th, ahead of only Drew Lock, Nick Fitzgerald, and Tyree Jackson. It gets worse, though. I've been doing these rankings since 2012, and Jones's score is the 13th-worst I've ever recorded when adjusted for his class.
The biggest reason is his accuracy. According to Sports Info Solutions, there have been 178 college QB seasons since 2016 in which the QB attempted at least 200 passes of five air yards (every yard past the line of scrimmage; negative-5 air yards is 5 yards behind the LOS, 5 air yards is 5 yards past, etc). Jones was responsible for three of those seasons at Duke.
Here's how he ranked in on-target rate (I like this more than completion rate because drops can make a QB look worse in completion rate) in those seasons.
| Season | On-Target% | Rank (of 178) |
|---|---|---|
2016 | 62.5 | 156 |
2017 | 60.7 | 170 |
2018 | 70.5 | 63 |
None of this is to say that Jones can't have a successful NFL career. He can, but based on his performance in college, the odds are stacked against him.
Who improved the most in Round 1? SportsLine has broken down how each of the 32 selections affects their new teams' outlooks for 2019, and you can see the five biggest winners right here.
And speaking of odds, no SportsLine show today as CBS Sports HQ dives deep on the NFL Draft, but you should head over at 6 p.m. ET anyway to see the Pick Six Podcast predraft show. Here are today's top picks.
1. Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers: Warriors -10
I picked the Clippers to cover the spread in my picks on Wednesday, but I did not see the outright win coming. Tonight I'm back on the Warriors to finish this series. It's great that the Clippers have made a real series of it, winning two of the three games at Oracle, but I think this is one of those situations where the bear was poked a little too aggressively. Plus, Golden State won the first two games of this series in L.A. somewhat easily.
While the SportsLine Projection Model has a slight ATS lean on this game, the real value is on the total, with one side cashing in 74 percent of simulations. You can get that pick only at SportsLine.
2. Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners: Under 9
One thing I'm always somewhat fond of doing is taking the under in a game the day after one of the two teams involved scored a bunch of runs. Seattle beat the Rangers 14-2 last night, and while they're capable of doing it again tonight, I think the total here is a touch optimistic. Plus, even if the Mariners offense has a decent night, the Rangers have struggled against lefties like Yusei Kikuchi this year, posting a wOBA of .296 against them, so I don't trust them to carry their end of the bargain.
DFS guru Mike McClure is locking in his lineups for Friday's action, and they include the debut of top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for the Blue Jays. Who else is McClure playing? You can see his lineups over at SportsLine.
3. Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals: Reds +135
This is a value play. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas faced the Reds earlier this season and allowed three runs in five innings. It wasn't a great start. Furthermore, while Mikolas has been effective, he doesn't strike many hitters out, and against current Reds hitters, he has a K-rate of only 9.9 percent. He doesn't miss many bats, and that can bite a pitcher in the butt easily. So with the Reds at +135, I like the value on them in this matchup.
What other picks should you be looking at in MLB on Friday? SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh, who's on a 29-15 run, has locked in three underdogs he sees as value plays. Check out those best bets only at SportsLine.
