One week of NFL is in the books, and besides the lack of fans in almost every stadium due to the coronavirus pandemic, it was basically professional football as we've come to know and love, with plenty of scoring, a few shocking upsets and everything else you get in Week 1. That includes a disappointing showing from a Browns team that has built some buzz under a new regime, as well as a highly-touted No. 1 overall pick at quarterback losing his first game.
First, let's talk about Joe Burrow. While it wasn't reflected on the scoreboard, the rookie out of LSU looked like he belonged in his debut, leading his team down the field late and seemingly throwing a go-ahead touchdown that was nullified by a questionable flag before watching the Bengals kicker fail to send the game into overtime. The loss is what we've come to expect for quarterbacks taken No. 1 overall, as quarterbacks in that sample are 0-12-1 straight up in their last 13 debuts (1-11-1 ATS), per CBS Sports research.
It was also more of the same for the Browns, who entered Week 1 with plenty of optimism under a new coaching staff for a second straight year only to get housed by 30-plus points for a second straight year in their opener. Last year, they rebounded by walloping the Jets, and they'll look to rediscover that success in Week 2 on Thursday Night Football.
We're going to get you ready for the matchup on the gambling side of things in this space, including what you need to know about each aspect of the game from a betting perspective. All odds via William Hill Sportsbook.
For another view on this game, check out the play from the SportsLine Projection Model, which is up over $7,400 on its top-rated picks.
How to watch
Date: Thursday, September 17 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: FirstEnergy Stadium (Cleveland, Ohio)
TV: NFL Network | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Bengals at Browns (-6)
This line first opened back in May at Browns -8, and by the time Sunday started the Browns were still big favorites at -7.5. After their ugly performance combined with the Bengals staying in their opener until the end, William Hill reopened this matchup at Browns -6.5 on Sunday night, which was quickly bet down to Browns -6. It moved again to Browns -5.5 on Monday afternoon but was back at six by Wednesday.
The Bengals enter this game as losers of 13 straight on the road, but the market has underrated them in those matchups, as Cincinnati has posted a 8-5 ATS mark during that stretch. If you only consider road games where they're 'dogs of at least four points, that mark jumps to 8-3 ATS.
Injuries could play a big factor in this game as well. The Bengals have ruled out two defensive tackles, including star Geno Atkins, as well as guard Xavier Su'a-Filo and safety Shawn Williams. But the Browns enter the matchup with far more questions to address, as their top three tackles and starting center are all questionable, as is receiver Jarvis Landry and edge rusher Olivier Vernon. Corner Greedy Williams is one of four other players ruled out.
Pick: Bengals +6. Burrow's numbers weren't great in his debut, but he was also facing one of the toughest defenses in the league. I expect he'll have more success against a beat-up Browns defense playing on a short week, especially with Cincinnati's talented stable of receivers up against this Cleveland secondary. It's on D.J. Reader to set the tone in the trenches to help slow down the Cleveland rushing attack, but if he can do that, the Bengals should take care of business.
Play moneyline at Bengals +220? I would. You'd have to project that the Bengals have a better than 31.25% chance of winning this matchup for there to be value on the moneyline, and I think that's underselling them considerably after what we saw from these teams in Week 1.
Over/Under 43.5 points
This has done nothing but drop since it opened at 46 back in May. The reopened line on Sunday night put the game at 45 and the market continue to push it down, with the total hitting 43.5 by Wednesday morning.
Pick: Over 43.5. The last five meetings between these two teams all featured plenty of scoring, and we saw in Week 1 that the lack of a preseason didn't affect offenses on the whole, with nine of the 16 opening week games going over their total. Even though these two teams struggled to score many points in Week 1, they were both playing much better defenses than what they'll see here. I like playing it up at 43.5 and having the opportunity to cash at the key numbers of 44 and 45.
Player props
Joe Burrow
O/U 20.5 completions
O/U 33.5 attempts
O/U 236.5 passing yards
O/U 1.5 passing TDs (Under -190)
O/U 25.5 rushing yards
It sure feels like Burrow can hit most of the Overs, though I would be hesitant to fire on him throwing multiple TDs as I feel Zac Taylor could be looking to run the ball in once he gets close (and the quarterback may even get his number called in that regard). I like going over on the passing yards here against this Cleveland secondary that gave up 275 passing yards on just 25 attempts by Lamar Jackson last week. He has the weapons to take advantage of mismatches. I also love the Over on Burrow's rush yards after he had that great 23-yard TD last week plus another 23 yards on seven more carries. The Browns allowed the fourth-most rushing yardage to quarterbacks last year.
Baker Mayfield
O/U 20.5 completions
O/U 30.5 attempts
O/U 240.5 passing yards
O/U 1.5 passing TDs (Under -120)
O/U 6.5 rushing yards
Kevin Stefanski was forced to throw probably more than he wanted to last week after the Browns got down early, and even with that being the case, Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb ran the ball 23 times. Even though Mayfield threw the ball 39 times last week, he finished with just 189 passing yards. I'm only looking under on his passing yardage total, but I think Over 6.5 rushing yards in a sneaky good play. The Bengals gave up the most rushing yards to QBs last season, and yes, Lamar Jackson played a big part in that, but quarterbacks like Gardner Minshew (48), Sam Darnold (9), Ryan Fitzpatrick (9), Jimmy Garoppolo (8) and Mayfield himself twice (29, 13) reached at least seven rushing yards against Cincinnati.
More props to consider
Tyler Boyd Over 4.5 receptions (+130), Over 49.5 receiving yards, TD props
A.J. Green was the Bengals' top receiver in Week 1, and he should see a lot of Denzel Ward in this matchup. That will leave Tyler Boyd to feast on what's left at corner for Cleveland. I think he blows by his reception and yardage over/unders, and if you want a lottery ticket to root for, I'd head over to his touchdown props. You can get Boyd scoring the first TD of the game at +1600, Boyd to score at least two TDs at +1800, and Boyd to score at least three TDs at +8000. While three is a lot to ask, it's not out of the realm of possibility here, and I like the value on the other two a great deal.
Kareem Hunt Under 23.5 receiving yards (+105)
Hunt was able to top this total in each of his two meetings with the Bengals last year, but the Bengals made some key defensive upgrades this offseason. They had a tough matchup on this front in Week 1 but were able to hold Austin Ekeler to just three receiving yards on one target. Hunt himself only delivered nine yards on six targets in Week 1, and I expect Cincinnati to similarly focus on stopping the Browns' running backs above all else in this matchup.
Austin Hooper Under 37.5 receiving yards
With David Njoku on the IR, it only makes sense for Hooper to get more work as a receiver after catching just two passes for 15 yards in the opener, right? Well, I think he plays a more critical role as a blocker with three tackles listed as questionable for the Browns in this game. I wouldn't expect a large uptick in targets for the tight end, though if Jarvis Landry is ruled out, that makes this a less enticing prop.
