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The Las Vegas Raiders are trying to bounce back from a disappointing loss when they host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football. The Raiders (5-3) suffered a 23-16 setback to the Giants last Sunday, but they remain in the hunt for the AFC West lead, as the Chargers, Chiefs and Broncos all entered Sunday with five wins. Kansas City battled to a 13-7 win against Green Bay last week, but the Packers were missing star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and the Chiefs still have some unresolved issues. 

Kickoff from Allegiant Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Raiders odds from Caesars Sportsbook, and the over-under for total points scored is 52.5. Before you lock in any Raiders vs. Chiefs picks, you need to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,600 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 10 of the 2021 season on an incredible 128-88 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has broken down Chiefs vs. Raiders and locked in its SNF picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines and trends for Raiders vs. Chiefs:  

  • Chiefs vs. Raiders spread: Kansas City -2.5 
  • Chiefs vs. Raiders over-under: 52.5 points 
  • Chiefs vs. Raiders money line: Kansas City -145, Las Vegas +125
  • KC: The Chiefs are 11-9 against the spread on the road since 2019 
  • LV: The Raiders are 9-5 against the spread in division games since 2019
Featured Game | Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Why the Chiefs can cover

The road team won both meetings last season, and the Chiefs are 11-2 in the last 13 matchups. The defense has seen a major uptick in its performance the past four weeks, allowing just 16 points and 311 yards per game after yielding 32.6 points and 437 yards through the first five. Chris Jones and Mike Danna have three sacks apiece and will put pressure on Derek Carr, who has been sacked 18 times and thrown seven interceptions.

Kansas City is 43-27-1 against the spread on the road under Andy Reid (since 2013), and the offense can still light it up. It starts with quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has 2,534 passing yards and 20 TDs and is more focused on protecting the ball. He has one interception over the past two games after throwing nine in his first seven. Receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce remain devastating weapons and have combined for 122 catches and 11 TDs.

Why the Raiders can cover

The home team has covered the spread in seven of the past nine meetings. Las Vegas' defense has been among the best in the league against the pass, so Mahomes could be in for a tough day. The Raiders rank fifth in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 207 yards per game. 

A pass rush featuring Yannick Ngakoue (six sacks) and Maxx Crosby (five) should be able to get close to Mahomes and try to force him into mistakes. And the Chiefs have made a lot this season. Mahomes has been sacked 17 times, and Kansas City has a league-high 19 turnovers. The Las Vegas offense ranks second in the league in passing (305 yards per game), and Carr has 2,565 passing yards and 13 TDs. The veteran quarterback is 9-1-1 against the spread in his career as a home underdog in prime time, covering in seven straight.

How to make Chiefs vs. Raiders picks

The model has analyzed Sunday Night Football from all sides. It's leaning over on the point total, projecting 54 combined points. It also says one side of the spread cashes more than 50 percent of the time. You can only get the model's Chiefs vs. Raiders picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Raiders vs. Chiefs on Sunday Night Football? And which side of the spread hits more than 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Raiders vs. Chiefs spread you should be all over, all from the model on a 128-88 run on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.